Fa La La La La.... La la la la's Luck

[cddenver]

Right off his website. Who here can beat that? LOL
That is a little better than 5 in a row, don't ya think.
The man just has the touch.
 
I just saw those numbers myself.  You corrected me a few postings back when I said he had a video for sale, so I went to his site to check. 
 
Works out to a winning percentage of close to 90%.  With numbers like those, he can lose quite a bit more in a bad session than he wins in a good session and still finish in the black.
 
I'm curious as to what he considers a "Professional" session.  Any time you play for money it's for real, isn't it?  290 sessions sounds like a lot, but it really isn't - just last year I got in about 180, and so far this year I have about 50.  Maybe he restarts his count as he comes up with tweaks to his system.
 
 
 
 

[oej719]

A pro session is when he plans a vegas trip with a plan and bankroll and goals.
Other sessions in Az when you sit at a bar and watch a game and play a few 25 cents hands to kill time or visit friends don't count.
And no 290 sessions are from when he turned pro to now. Which I think was 1998.
Check out all the links on the website.  Some of his articles are interesting and entertaining and educational.
 
Hey do you play at the Riviara at the machines by the elevators  to the parking garage?

[shadowman]

Results as of:

April 06, 2007

 

Total Professional Sessions:
 
290

 

Total Pro Winning Sessions:
 
252

 

Total Pro Losing Sessions:
 
38
Right off his website. Who here can beat that? LOL
That is a little better than 5 in a row, don't ya think.
The man just has the touch.
 
Using his published system on the games he plays with average luck results in around 70-75% session wins (and money lost). Only one in ten thousand should see 85% success. Personally, I'd question anyone who claims 87% wins. But then, who'd listen to him if he claimed average luck?
 

[shadowman]

I'm curious as to what he considers a "Professional" session.

 
Probably one he publishes on his site.

[rascal]

[QUOTE=cddenver]
I'm curious as to what he considers a "Professional" session.

 
 
A professional session is one which results in the sale of a copy of his book. If he sells two books....well, that's two sessions!
 
"Figures don't lie, but liars figure." --- the late U.S. Sen. Sam Ervin D-NC

[oej719]

Oh my gosh!!!
So we all think those win/lose figures are maybe reversed.
What a horrible mis-truth.
And all along I thought he just had THE touch, sorta like ESP. not

[cddenver]

A pro session is when he plans a vegas trip with a plan and bankroll and goals.
Other sessions in Az when you sit at a bar and watch a game and play a few 25 cents hands to kill time or visit friends don't count.
And no 290 sessions are from when he turned pro to now. Which I think was 1998.
Check out all the links on the website.  Some of his articles are interesting and entertaining and educational.
 
Hey do you play at the Riviara at the machines by the elevators  to the parking garage?
 
Oh, I see...I'll make a point of checking his site for info before posting here - no reason for anyone to waste time giving me info like that when I could simply check myself.  I *have* checked several reviews of his book/system, and none of them - not a one - have been very favorable. 
 
I'd disagree with the thinking that sometimes you're gambling for real, and other times, for fun.  Any time money goes in a machine it's for real, so I count ALL my play as real play.  I'd concede the point of adopting a slightly different approach depending on where you're playing due to different $ limits or game availability, so I can see him limiting his results reporting to those sessions where he's best able to play his way.
 
As to the Riviera, yes, I'm a regular at that bank of four multi-denom machines by the garage.  The leftmost one is the lucky one (smiling).  I think it's the last bank of single play they have that pays 9/6.  Gettin' hard to find.  Maybe we can arrange a meet there sometime, and chat and whine about how tight they are.
 

[denflo60]

Fa La La La La.... La la la la et al:
 
 When I was a businessman  for 36 years I always felt it best to read everything I could on a subject, listen to all sides even if I disagreed, and then make my decision based on my weighting of everything I read and heard.  I happen to be a political conservative, but just listening to Rush Limbaugh can skew your thought process.  As someone stated in this forum, there are things to be learned from many places including Fa La La La La.... La la la la.  I have all the Bob Dancer books, cards and programs, but I also read Fa La La La La.... La la la la's column.  This way things come out like, as long as your bankroll can take it you likely more often to have successful sessions of some significance with a game like DDB rather than JorB.
  Despite, the comments to the contrary, I don't feel I will ever reach the long term as I get to Vegas 5 or 6 times a year for 5 days each and do not play anywhere else so I value short term comments.  Now in a relative sense there is not a lot written about the short term, because math guys seem (I was an Engineer) squeemish about talking about anything with a time element less than infinity or whatever they term the long run to be.  Discipline is to me extraordinarily important.  In cases I feel even more important than 100% perfect play (I do know what penalty cards are and their value).
I have read all the video poker books.  I know about the Kelly Criterion and Martingale progression, but am seeking more knowledge.  I  looked into game theory, but that's not it so I just bought 5 books on gaming and probability looking for what people have to say about the short run.  Were I 20 years old again but with my current assets, I would go out and hire some PHD student and his advisor to study short term random streakiness (I learned I can't use random cyclicality....thank you Dan Paymar) of video poker and see if you can take advantage of it even though its random.  Everyone says you can't but mathematically have not offered any proof of this.   And no I do not wish to start a new thread here as I just finished one at the other forum.
  So read Fa La La La La.... La la la la, Dancer, Wizard of Odds and any other scholarly reference you can find and make your own decision.  That way you can't blame anyone if it turns out differently than anticipated.  Denny

[cddenver]

Fa La La La La.... La la la la et al:
 
I happen to be a political conservative, but just listening to Rush Limbaugh can skew your thought process.  As someone stated in this forum, there are things to be learned from many places including Fa La La La La.... La la la la.  I have all the Bob Dancer books, cards and programs, but I also read Fa La La La La.... La la la la's column. 
 
Are we going to start a Rush-bashing thread?  Puh-leeze?
 
I agree completely with the "Knowledge is Power" view.  I've got quite a library of books on VP and gambling in general.  Some are very good, and I've learned quite a bit from those.  Some are very bad, but even those can have little "nuggets" that I take to heart.  Anything that gets me thinking is good, even if I end up not agreeing with it. 
 
It's not necessary to consider the long-term "infinity".  I've tracked my own results for many years, and there's remarkably little variation year to year in my hourly rates of Aces, 2's-4's, kickers, and quads in general (royals are a special case).  My own view of the short term - say, any given 10 hours of play - is that it doesn't matter whether I get that 10 hours in as 10 1-hour sessions spread out over time, or one 10 hour session done in one day.  I'll be sitting in the same place financially at the end of the 10 hours.  The "Statistics" section on this site shows how many hands it takes to hit jackpots of various kinds, and that info's right on.
 
 
 

[shadowman]

Despite, the comments to the contrary, I don't feel I will ever reach the long term as I get to Vegas 5 or 6 times a year for 5 days each and do not play anywhere else so I value short term comments.  Now in a relative sense there is not a lot written about the short term, because math guys seem (I was an Engineer) squeemish about talking about anything with a time element less than infinity or whatever they term the long run to be.
 
Denny, there is a TON of information written on "whatever" term VP. It's called statistical analysis and based on your stated interest you should already know and understand everything you need to know. It's not exactly a new science. It seems to me you're more interested in ignoring basic math and finding some magic bullet that anyone knowledgeable about statistics can tell you DOESN'T EXIST.
 
To use a much worn cliche ... this is not rocket science. Expected results based on any number of hands can be given in probabilities. The more hands, the tighter the probabilities become that you will be near YOUR expected return. No "short term", no "long term", just ever tightening probabilities.
 
The only reason people talk about an EXACT value for expected return is because that is the simplest to understand. One little number. No need to talk about probabilities that tend to make most folk's eyes glaze over. That is where the phrase "long term" comes from. Ignore it. It really has no place in VP since no one will ever play an infinite number of hands. Just think of the infinite hand ER as a goal. There is nothing better.
 
I know this is not what you want to hear. Sorry.