The Meaning of Discipline

[royal flush]

math always prvails since vp is a randon event timing does not exist just like the casinos post the recent numbers on roulette wheels for people who bilieve in  timing meanwhile -5.19% at best

[MikeA]

Anyone who has played Blackjack has encountered that type player who either insists on sitting at third base because he thinks he can control whether or not the dealer busts simply by predicting whether or not he should take a hit on a stiff hand.  I get frustrated with this type player if I'm card counting because they are slowing down the game and the more hands per hour I play, the sooner I'll realize my advantage.  If I am just playing Basic Strategy, then I'm encouraging that player because they are slowing down the game and extending the life of my bankroll (it is a NEGATIVE EXPECTATION game if you are not counting cards correctly.)If he's not sitting at third base, he's blaming the person who is sitting there because he "took the dealer's bust card."  We in Blackjack call this player a Voodoo Player.  However, there is something to it in Blackjack IF the person sitting at third base is a card counter and KNOWS that the conditions are favorable for the dealer to draw a Face Card.In other words, there is somewhat of an ability in BJ to predict the outcome of a decision other than relying strictly on Basic Strategy.I have seen nothing to indicate to me that there is any way to predict anything of the sort in Video Poker.  There is a thing called the Law of Independent Trials that has already been proposed by the coin flip.  Simply stated, each coin toss is completely unaffected by the results of any previous coin toss(s).  Video Poker is exactly like that coin toss with each hand because each hand starts out with 52 cards (non Joker games) randomly shuffled.  No cards are removed from the deck prior to the initial dealt hand.  Blackjack is different because played cards are not placed back into the deck after each hand (unless a constant shuffle machine (CSM) is utilized and I will not play at one of those tables!)  This allows an observant player to keep track of what has been played in the past and know that the chances are improved for wins or loses in subsequent hands.Timing just can't have anything to do with decision making in Video Poker if the game is truly fair and completely random.  Each hand is supposed to be an independent trial meaning that each hand is equal in chances for being good or bad on the initial draw.As far as hot or cold tables in Blackjack, they are as unpredictable from shoe to shoe as is Video Poker is from hand to hand.  Changing tables because you lose in a given shoe will do nothing more than give you some psychological sense of being better off by changing.Based on these facts (not theory), there is no reasonable justification for increasing a bet in Video Poker from one hand to another other than for the entertainment value.  By that I'm talking about a nickel player upping the ante to $1 or $5 per coin.  That will probably produce an adrenalin rush that might be attractive to some players.Personally, that doesn't do it for me.  I'd as soon grind it out knowing that the odds are with me if I'm playing a positive expectation game and playing it with the best chance of winning in the long run (perfect Basic Strategy play).

[chuck arl]

Wagers in v.p. should be the same all the time! That is 5 coins(max) at a time in what ever denomination is most comfortable for you to play. Last week in Gaming today or maybe it was before that Elliott Frome mentioned in his v.p. column about tinkering with 1 or 2 coins at a time when things weren't going well. That's not really a good idea. If things aren't going well, stop and take a break or change machines. Don't decrease your wager. It may come back and bite you!---CWA---

[MikeA]

That's a point well taken Chuck, but not precisely what the mention of increasing wagers was meant as in this particular discussion.  We are talking about increasing denominations from maybe $.25 per coin to $1.00 per coin.

[bigboy]

Bigboy,
            I don't know if you are going to read this since you said your question had been satisfactorily answered by Faygo, but since I am a "weekend warrior" at the casinos I wasn't here to answer your question right away.
            In short, yes, I was referring to the "mysterious man on the motorcycle's" progression in denomination & game volatility.
            There are no other authors in video poker I was referring to in my post.
            I do realize that the coin flip example has been brought up here as a simplistic example.....but I also want to add that I still have a liking to Mr. Fa La La La La.... La la la la's ideas of increasing game volatility WITHIN a certain denomination.
            To me, this does indeed add flavor and variety to casino sessions and it makes the range of outcomes more complex and involved (and more exciting!) than simple coin flips or playing the same game/denomination for an entire session.
            Shadowman, in case you are reading this, I am well aware of your arguments mathematically and I respect them (You certainly won't see me taunting advantage players!).....Yet, I am still very much neutral on the Shadowman/Fa La La La La.... La la la la debate and, personally, I find the TIMING issue to be paramount in video poker.
~Benford's Law

 
Thanks for the response. I understand what you're saying with regard to being "neutral", because i was also neutral(willing to listen) when R.S. first started posting. Ultimately, my opinion was that he did'nt produce anything of note. I'm biased toward the "AP"side of the coin, however i've always been interested in seeing other viewpoints on the game.

[shadowman]

There was a time when I considered that the longer I went without a particular result the "more likely" that event was to happen. I suspect that is what is meant by the "timing issue". After having many long droughts in various aspects of the game over time (as well as several hot streaks) I no longer feel that way. If such a thing were true then no one should ever go over two cycles w/o hitting a particular result. I have had a 5 cycle RF drought, a 13 cycle deuces wild royal flush drought, several 4oak droughts of longer than 5-6 cycles. Currently I am averaging OVER 2 cycles this year for each of my quad deuces playing several types of deuces wild.
 
I've also hit back-back quads, had royal flushes 5 minutes apart, etc. All of these are to be expected from truly random deals. So, from my own experiences I no longer view the "timing issue" as anything that can be used to my advantage.
 

[Benford's Law]

Shadowman,        I agree that it is a very tricky business to say we are "due" for something good when we, as players, haven't seen a good hand for a while.  We are, after all, playing against emotionless machines incapable of human cognition.        In fact, right now I know of somebody who is hitting tons of royals (20 of them in about 400,000 hands of play this year) while I myself am struggling to find any at all.....although, admittedly, I don't play as much.        The insidiousness here is that my chances of finding the next royal are just as slim as the next player's regardless of past results.  I have a favorite term (gleaned from your nemesis Mr. Fa La La La La.... La la la la's articles)....the results of any session are "expunged" once it is finished and you leave the casino (ie.  each session or even a single hand has nothing to do with the next or the previous one).         I am simply looking at the timing issue as something new and unexplored.  If you've already made up your mind on it that is okay with me....but I am glad to know, at least, a little bit about how these machines *really* work.~Benford's Law        

[shadowman]

  I have a favorite term (gleaned from your nemesis Mr. Fa La La La La.... La la la la's articles)....the results of any session are "expunged" once it is finished and you leave the casino (ie.  each session or even a single hand has nothing to do with the next or the previous one).

 
Unfortunately, he uses this fact to infer that one can achieve premium hands more often than the standard cycle time by simply leaving the casino and returning on another day. Whereas, it turns out the independence of hands is one of the key elements in the proof that a progression can not change the expected results of games like video poker.

[Benford's Law]

Perhaps taking a break from a hyper-stimulating casino atmosphere allows the player's blood vessels to relax and dilate?Once of my dealt royals came after taking some aspirin.~Benford's Law

[MikeA]

Actions taken preceding the monumental event of achieving a Royal:I'm wanting so bad to respond to this but if I did, it would surely be censored!