VP Progression

[MikeA]

With the discussion primarily between Shadowman and BabyBubba, I've become motivated to engage in a simulated "trip".  I don't have all the nuances worked out as far as the details of the progression goes, but it is patterned after Mr. Fa La La La La.... La la la la's progression as far as I've been able to pick up on it from conversations here on the Forum.  I make no claim that it is simulating exactly what BB executes in the casino, but it is based on what I know of negative progressions in Blackjack.  It does involve increasing denominations after losing which does qualify it as a negative progression.
 
My plan is to wager 100 credits at each denomination.  My goal is to win 40 coins at whatever denomination I'm playing with the secondary goal of recovering whatever I've lost during previous losing sessions.  It's an "either/or" scenario.  If I win 40 coins, then I'm done for that session.  If I have lost several mini-sessions (100-coin sessions) and then log a win in a higher denomination that recovers my previous loses in those previous sessions but doesn't qualify with an additional 40-coin win overall, then I reset and start over with my lowest denomination.  At that point, I will be "even" or maybe a little ahead but will be less than 40-coins ahead at the denomination I started with.  
 
It's sort of complicated to set the mini-goal without a calculator while at a machine.  So, I suspect that I'll be "stepping away" from the machine and logging my results.  Your mini-goal needs to be set by taking your cumulative "dollar" loss from previous sessions added to the 100-coin buy-in for whatever denomination you are getting ready to start.  This total represents your "break even" point and the point at which you would cease play at that denomination and revert to your initial starting denomination.  Then I take that mini-goal and add to it another 40-coins to it for another target amount.  This is the amount you are seeking to claim a session win.  If you reach or exceed that goal, then you consider your session a "win" and end the session.
 
I will be starting at $.25, then $.50, then $1.00, then $5, then $10, then $25, then $50 and finally $100.  As stated, each denomination will be a 100-coin buy-in.
 
I'll be playing 9/6/4 Double Double Bonus with a 98.8% Expected Return.  I'll be playing on a simulator that warns me about errors so I'll be making no errors according to the best calculated play. 
 
Since this is a fictitious simulation, I'll not have any concerns for Bankroll.  Consider it "unlimited".  A "session" will NOT end until I have reached my goal at which point I'll know the overall profit and also, the amount I placed at risk to win that profit. 
 
I will report the best winning hands of the mini-sessions, the number of hands played and of course the results.
 
I will keep one message active in the topic (the next message or the second one it this topic) updated as sessions continue. 
 
Webman, is there a maximum size for ONE post?  I mean, am I going to have to start a second message at some point to continue the session records?
 
Note that I've played out a Blackjack negative progression and for quite a while, I logged in an unbroken string of wins.  The wins were not much because with the doubling of bets in Blackjack after losing a hand, when you finally win, you will only have won ONE minimum bet, yet you might have started with a $5 bet and lost enough hands in a row to culminate the progression with a $5,000 bet just to win back that initial $5 loss.  It's simply not a practical strategy in Blackjack. 
 
The VP negative progression is not based on single hand wins or loses though, so it may not fit the pattern of Blackjack's results.  Certainly, the constraints of table maximums does not come into play. 

[Webman]

I don't know what the maximum size for a single post is... guess we'll find out.

[MikeA]

VP DDB 9/6 Negative Progression

Session
Coin Value
Buy-in
Goal Coins
Goal Dollars
Stop Goal
Stop Dollars
Hands Played
Coin IN
Significant Hands
Coin Result
Dollar Result
Running Total















1a
$0.25
$25.00
140
$35.00

$35.00
10
$12.50
 4-Qs
250
$37.50
$37.50















2a
$0.25
$25.00
140
$35.00
140
$35.00
90
$112.50
 4-STs
100
$25.00
$25.00

2b
$0.50
$50.00
150
$75.00
190
$95.00
77
$192.50
 1-ST
100
$50.00
$75.00

2c
$1.00
$100.00
175
$175.00
215
$215.00
110
$550.00
 3-ST
100
$100.00
$175.00

2d
$5.00
$500.00
135
$675.00
175
$875.00
97
$2,425.00
 2-FL
100
$500.00
$675.00

2e
$10.00
$1,000.00
168
$1,675.00
208
$2,075.00
49
$2,450.00
 4-Qs
175
$1,750.00
$1,075.00

















$1,675.00




423
$5,730.00



















3a
$0.25
$25.00
140
$35.00
140
$35.00
32
$40.00
 2-Pr
100
$25.00
$25.00

3b
$0.50
$50.00
150
$75.00
190
$95.00
116
$290.00
 1-FH 2-FL
100
$50.00
$75.00

3c
$1.00
$100.00
175
$175.00
215
$215.00
168
$840.00
 4-FH 1-FL
100
$100.00
$175.00

3d
$2.00
$200.00
188
$375.00
228
$455.00
78
$780.00
 1-ST
100
$200.00
$375.00

3e
$5.00
$500.00
175
$875.00
215
$1,075.00
89
$2,225.00
 1-FL
100
$500.00
$875.00

3d
$10.00
$1,000.00
188
$1,875.00
228
$2,275.00
36
$1,800.00
 3oK
100
$1,000.00
$1,875.00

3e
$25.00
$2,500.00
175
$4,375.00
215
$5,375.00
68
$8,500.00
 2-FL 2-ST
100
$2,500.00
$4,375.00

3f
$50.00
$5,000.00
188
$9,375.00
228
$11,375.00
222
$55,500.00
 6-FH 3-FL 
100
$5,000.00
$9,375.00

3g
$100.00
$10,000.00
194
$19,375.00
234
$23,375.00
110
$55,000.00
 1-FH 
100
$10,000.00
$19,375.00

3h
$200.00
$20,000.00
197
$39,375.00
237
$47,375.00
70
$70,000.00
 1-FH 
100
$20,000.00
$39,375.00

3i
$400.00
$40,000.00
198
$79,375.00
238
$95,375.00
53
$106,000.00
 Q4's 3 
845
$338,000.00
$298,625.00











 





$79,375.00




1042
$300,975.00

[MikeA]

I'll be adding to that progression chart as I have time to complete practice sessions.  Note that the first session ended after only 10 hands at the quarter level.  The second session didn't end until I had risked $1,675.00 with the last $1,000 being at the $10 level.  The result was an overall win of $1,075.00.
 
It is also interesting to note that the second set of quad queens I hit came 423 hands into the session.  That's not too far off of where the prediction is for hitting quads.  I think that number is calculated to be 1 out of 418 attempts in DDB.  I was behind the curve!
 
I note also that since the progression denominations do not exactly "double" as with Martingale progressions, the number of coins over the 100 coin buy-in does fluctuate (the Goal Coins).
 
The "Goal Coins" represents the "break-even" point.  "The Stop Goal" represents that point at which you would recover your previous losses and win 40 credits at the current level.
 
I think that if I were to use this progression in a casino, I would take anything between the "Goal Coins" and the "Stop Goal" that I might hit and stick it in my pocket and restart at the minimum level and call the session a break even session.  The other option would be to play down those surplus coins to the "Goal Coins" figure in hopes of hitting another larger hand to meet the Stop Goal.

[MikeA]

 
Seriously, my intent with this series of progressive sessions is to illustrate the results.  I fully expect that overall, I'll come out ahead.  That is what a negative progression does provided that you have an unlimited bankroll and the session denominations are not limiting.  But, when reviewing the results, do not neglect to take note of the amount of bankroll it takes to accomplish this goal. 
 
In that second session, I hit quads QUICK...within 5 sessions.  I know that losing sessions in excess of that is probably more to be expected than that second session.  In fact, I just completed a couple of practice sessions where I lost 10 and 12 sessions before finally hitting quads.  I feel sure that my practice sessions will achieve one of those streaks and when it does, I'm sure I'll be enlarging the widths of the monetary columns!
 
I already know that using this type strategy will not suit me.  I do not have the bankroll to support it.

[Webman]

Removing comments about alias jokes here.  We have enough of these comments spread all over the forum.

[babybubba]

Mike:  While what you're playing is quite distant to how my strategy plays out, he first thing you'll notice in a casino is how much more enjoyable it is playing something that requires your mind to work the numbers almost with every 10 hands instead of sitting there like a fat zombie pounding away as fast as your fingers will take you. I did it and to me that makes no sense at all. In fact, the moment I put on a pound from just sitting there thinking I had the mathematical advantage I got sick to my stomach.
 
I don't quite understand what you mean by a "negative progression". My progressions are neither negative nor positive by some "definition" as I progress in both denomination after trying at 400 credits and game volatility after trying 100 credits of BP.
 
Don't cut yourself short on the bankroll aspect. Plenty of people are finding success starting at nickels and stopping at dollars.

[MikeA]

The purpose of this representation is not intended to emulate your progression.  I don't know enough about it to emulate it Rob. 
 
I am trying to show what a "negative progression" will ultimately do.  Anyone who can "think through the logic" of a negative progression will have to admit that if you play long enough and invest enough in a negative progression, you will eventually win something.  The problem is just what amount would you be willing to gamble to come out ahead?
 
For me, it wouldn't take long to approach my annual salary!
 
The progression I'm using isn't ideal.  I'm basing it roughly on the Martingale negative progression and it really doesn't fit.  I would need to go with double the previous denomination to set up a Martingale and there are some denominations that just do not fit with what is offered on machines.  Or, at least I don't think they do.  I would need to progress as follows:
 
$.25, $.50, $1, $2, $4, $8, $16, $32, $64 and so on doubling the denomination each time.  I doubt that those denominations are available on machines.  Consequently, there will be jumps of MORE than double in some cases.  Like jumping from $1 to $5.

[shadowman]

Mike, you might want to remove your $50 denom and add a $2. I've never seen a $50 machine. I know it's not really relevant to what you're doing but I'm sure it's a simple change and keeps your levels to 8.
 
Rob, a "negative" progression is when you move up in denom after a loss. A positive progression is moving up on a win.

[babybubba]

There are $50 machines at Red Rock Station.