Video Poker Forum

I was at Harrahs last week, and had a wierd
win streak. I want to know the "odds" of this happening

I was playing $1 Double Double bonus poker $5 per hand, after 15 minutes, I hit 4A with kicker (2 card draw) for $2000. 5 minutes later I hit another Natural 4A with kicker for $2000. 15 minutes later I hit another 4A with kicker (2 card draw).

I estimate I played for 1 hour for this session. I am an experienced VP player, and play pretty fast. Other
sites say a reasonable fast player plays 600 hands per hour. I estimate I played 500 hands in this session.

Note that these were hand pay, so I was not playing while waiting for attendant.

So my question is: What are the odds of hitting 4A/k three times in 500 hands?

I have done some reading and found that 4A/k occures approximatly once every 16,000 hands, so I am
calling this 16,000 to 1 odds to get 4A/k on one play.

Since I played 500 hands, I say the odds of hitting one 4A/K in this session is 16,000/500 = 32 to 1

Since I hit three of them, I say the odds are 3*32 = 96 to 1

Does this make sense to anyone? It seems low to me.

I haven't checked your 1 in 16,000 number, but assuming it's accurate, then the odds of exactly three 4A/K in 500 hands are(1/16000)^3 x ((1 - 1/16000) ^ 497) x (500 x 499 x 498) = 0.0000294 or one in ~34,006

The odds are in in "never" for me. Congrats on an incredible run!

I haven't checked your 1 in 16,000 number, but assuming it's accurate, then the odds of exactly three 4A/K in 500 hands are(1/16000)^3 x ((1 - 1/16000) ^ 497) x (500 x 499 x 498) = 0.0000294 or one in ~34,006
Hey, G-bog, I give you props for working out the calculation formula longhand rather than just using an Excel spreadsheet binomial distribution formula.You need to check the binomial coefficient, though.  500!/(497! 3!) = (500 x 499 x 498)/(3 x 2 x 1), so the calculation of the probability is off by a factor of 6, making the probability 0.000004901150, odds of 204033 to 1, or 1 chance in 204034, using integers.Whatever the odds, there is more fun in the winning than the "ciphering."

You fellows certainly know your gozintas.

Mmm, gozintas.....con queso of course.

Congrats kennyplayer on a very nice little 35 minute run up.

Four gozinta eight twice.

Fine run KP. I often hit one of those in a 2-dayer. Of course my game being JOB,i get to avoid the hand pay "problem".                                                        
                                                     
                                                                                                                           

Keep doing it and lose all money back then you will not feel the surprise.