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Hmmm..not very likely

Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2010 4:39 pm
by jm002546

  Tried the new contest - deuces wild, since that is the only thing I play.Early on I held 55.  On the 300 card draw, I drew 34 5's, which is amazing.Even more amazing, I don't think I drew a single wild.  I checked several times to make sure there were no 2's. I have to admit I wasn't looking for W's, but I think I would have noticed them because I had to look at every hand a couple more times to count 5's. I can only assume the RNG was sleeping when that hand was played.  

Re: Hmmm..not very likely

Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2010 5:01 pm
by Webman
What's not very likely? 

Re: Hmmm..not very likely

Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2010 7:10 pm
by okie dokie
On the flip side... it could 'possible'?!?!?!

Re: Hmmm..not very likely

Posted: Thu Oct 28, 2010 11:03 am
by jm002546
Added message back

Re: Hmmm..not very likely

Posted: Thu Oct 28, 2010 5:11 pm
by New2vp


  Tried the new contest - deuces wild, since that is the only thing I play.Early on I held 55.  On the 300 card draw, I drew 34 5's, which is amazing.Even more amazing, I don't think I drew a single wild.  I checked several times to make sure there were no 2's. I have to admit I wasn't looking for W's, but I think I would have noticed them because I had to look at every hand a couple more times to count 5's. I can only assume the RNG was sleeping when that hand was played.   Hey jm, It's too bad you didn't keep a screen-shot.  As you say, unless there was a computer or RNG malfunction, assuming you counted the drawn 5s correctly and didn't re-count any of the two 5's that were held in each hand, we would expect between 12 and 13 drawn 5s.  Thirty-four is more than 6 standard deviations from expected, so the odds of an observation that extreme is about 1.5 Billion to 1 (using a couple standard approximation techniques).And making the common sense assumption that you didn't throw away any deuces, the odds of getting no deuces on any of the hands is about 720 Billion to 1.  As you mentioned, the computer represents these on the small hands as W, not 2.On the other hand, the expected number of both 2's and 5's is about 38, which is close to what you saw.If everything is working correctly, You can expect around 70,000 dealt royal flushes WITH a multiplier for every time you draw 3 cards holding non-deuces and receive 0 deuces in all 100 hands.  Hope you get at least one of the those dealt royals before the contest is over. 

Re: Hmmm..not very likely

Posted: Thu Oct 28, 2010 5:14 pm
by Webman
Yes, a screen capture would have made it possible to evaluate this more accurately. Otherwise there are a lot of unknowns here, unfortunately.

Re: Hmmm..not very likely

Posted: Fri Oct 29, 2010 10:34 am
by jm002546
  I'm no computer genius but I did try to highlight and copy. Could nothighlight. Yes, I wanted to show the screen. I counted the 5's CAREFULLY.Had 27 trips, 3 FH, 2 4K.  So, I had to find the FH's to see if additional 5 included. Looked for wild cards several times because their scarcity wasobvious. But I will admit I was looking for 2's. That's why I originally deleted the post. Then I realized that I should have noticed the W's. I only really played 1 time and not that many hands. Can you trace back to that?