Contests

[BillyJoe]

Edog, You have indeed been asterisking me about it for years, and I've always done my best to explain properly how what you see is expected. Thanks again. Turns out, I do give an asterisk. You just don't like the answer.

All I can say is that I have been a Gold long enough to remember when there were no, or perhaps, one, contest. Now, I have several to choose from, including improvements to allow gaming on tablets and smartphones.

This site provides competition in a variety of formats. Kudos to everyone that works hard to make it so.

[Webman]

Contests? It was years before we had those.   Here's what the site looked like when I signed up for the job:https://web.archive.org/web/20060101040 ... poker.com/

[edog743]

Why isn't the auto hold feature available anymore. Btw Bj your argument does not hold water as I recall you had a not so random entry into the TOC last year.

[edog743]

Webman I asked this question in a P.M. and did not get a answer so I will ask it here. When does the law of avererages catch up to these people? Or should us people who are not the chosen few I.E. your people resign ourselves to the fact that this is a waste of time and we are not going to win?

[Webman]

edog,Your concept of "the chosen few" is flawed, so there's no real response to it. Every time you have me investigate something that you find odd, it turns out to be nothing unexpected. Here are the daily contest winners from the past 60 days. Which of them are the chosen few exactly (and if they are the chosen ones, why are the other 57 there)?


cardguppy 


Boris2 


Lovely Janette 


Buffilita 


ricky 60107 


Richard C 


azprincess 


frogfrog61 


kdave 


player_33568 


nsr 


flamingokate 


Houser 


player_77269 


jus-us 


catbil 


fletcher 


tljd 


rob8 


shemp55 


larlee 


slove 


lucklessness 


poud83 


rushisgreat 


nigel 


Kinghawk 


queen of aces 


don 1 


26SCORPIO 


Rosebud1 


adkins41 


larchar 


timmyk 


ShowMe Gal 


rac155 


KCC 


vwken 


lthrush 


red apple 


Kerry777 


gmacl 


marpa 


beachbaby 


goma 


Rosko 


lunlo 


*Bubbles 


Splkg 


GERIEG 


mpepsiman 


ljs 


ljkahler 


armanda 


InstaGatur 


speaks 


GigBoss 


behren 


wogger 


TXGinger 

You mentioned Buffilita in your private message. She did win one other contest... in November of last year. So it appears you think I waited around 9 months before pushing a magic button to give her that win (whereas as my previous post showed, it's perfectly normal to see some people win more than once in a year).

[BillyJoe]

Btw Bj your argument does not hold water as I recall you had a not so random entry into the TOC last year.
I do not see what 'argument' I was making in my post that isn't holding water, since I made no reference to winning or losing contests. Maybe you just read something that you would like to believe - I don't know.

Yes - I was fortunate to get in a TOC as a random entry - ONCE - for the entire time that the TOC has existed. To my knowledge, others were selected at random, also.

[edog743]

I will give you two Gigboss and Queen of aces they both won multiple times last year and I believe they also each recieved a random entry. That seems like an awful amount of luck to me. They both have also won in the last 60 days per your post.

[BillyJoe]

Contests? It was years before we had those.   Here's what the site looked like when I signed up for the job:https://web.archive.org/web/20060101040 ... poker.com/

HOLY COW !!! That predates me on this site. Did that run on a floppy disk back then ?

That "Urban Legends" is interesting. Maybe that is something that you should bring back in the current version, since some of the same arguments seem to keep cropping up.

[Webman]

I will give you two Gigboss and Queen of aces they both won multiple times last year and I believe they also each recieved a random entry. That seems like an awful amount of luck to me. They both have also won in the last 60 days per your post.Gigboss won a daily contest in April of 2012 (more than two years ago). Then they won a random entry in January of 2013.Queen of aces has only won twice. July 31st of this year, and the time before that was a long wait since December of 2011! She did win two random drawings as well over the years, with no prize, only TOC qualification.If that is your idea of a conspiracy, I don't think I can ever assure you of anything.

[nova369]

Edog, You have indeed been asterisking me about it for years, and I've always done my best to explain properly how what you see is expected. I will do so once again.Let's say 5,000 people play in each contest throughout the year.With daily (365) weekly (52) and monthly (12) contests, there are a total of 429 contests each year.For simplicity, we'll say all people play the same amount and we will only look at a first place score, and throw out strategy to give everyone an equal shot. So each person has a 1/5000 chance of winning each contest under those assumptions.Based on a 1/5000 chance (0.0002) and 429 contests, statistically each person has a 8.2% chance of placing first at least once during the year. That's 91.8 percent of people who will go home (or stay home) without a first place finish. Most people, by far.What about people winning more than once?  I'm glad you asked!Statistically with the assumptions above, 0.347% of people would win two or more times in a year. Multiplied by 5,000 people that's 16.85 people we'd expect to win more than once! Salt in the wound for those who have never won, but fair nonetheless.So, it really is not surprising at all that 1) We see some people win more than once and 2) A lot of people (most) have not won in yearsBecause that's exactly what should happen.Now, strategy does figure in to an extent, primarily in the Monthly, and much more so in the old Winner's Challenge that had people repeating far too often for everyone's liking. And, some people play a lot more than others. So all this changes things a bit, but as you can see above, all of this is expected to happen in a perfectly fair game with equal odds.Thanks again. Turns out, I do give an asterisk. You just don't like the answer.
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