Major mistake?

[onemoretry]

I also see this a lot on the forums and this needs to be said. The math IS exactly right. But the math is NOT a guarantee. It's a probability.   The probability of a coin landing on heads is 1/2. Does that mean that if you flip a coin twice, you're guaranteed 1 heads? Of course not. Is it possible to flip a coin twice and get no heads? Sure. Four times? Sure. Ten times? Sure. One hundred times? Not very likely, but sure, still possible. Do any of these outcomes mean that our original 1/2 probability was incorrect? No. It's still 1/2. It's always 1/2. The math is exactly right.
Well stated!

[FAA]

I've had 3 Royals this year holding ace- ten, will continue to despite what the math says.---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Man you're lucky! I can't fathom holding the ten ace in JOB. Want to break even on the hand too much.

[FAA]

I also caught a royal this year holding A-10 and after posting the
picture, there were a couple comments made about my choice of holding
the 10. All I know is this: I held A-10 and was rewarded with a royal,
how would I have felt if I held just the A, drew 4 to the royal and
needed the 10 I just discarded to fill in the royal?--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Yeah, your luck is well documented. Casino execs must be at your mercy when they see you rolling through. Maybe I'm a nervous ninny.  Still cannot bring myself to commit to a TA hold.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=jetermacaw]I've had 3 Royals this year holding ace- ten, will continue to do so despite what the math says.[/quote]Welcome to the club.  We play deuces wild and the math says to throw away A-10 A-K A-Q & A-J without a deuce.  My wife keeps them and I normally don't.  She has hit two ace face card royals in the past year.  Last November I took her advice and kept one.  As luck would have it I got the Royal and she has been kidding me about it ever since.  I know people who play as if there is a big progressive and go for the royal all the time.   They hit a lot more royals, but I suspect they lose more long term.    Luck is such a big part of video poker that you never know how the cards are going to come up.  One thing I do know, if you don't hold A-10 you'll never hit a royal holding only those cards.  

[markinca]

They hit a lot more royals, but I suspect they lose more long term.


This is a similar situation to holding AAA over AAA+k in TDB - you'll hit a lot more quads, but lose more long term.

[notes1]

is is a similar situation to holding AAA over AAA+k in TDB - you'll hit a lot more quads, but lose more long term.

your statement implies every players results will match that of expected results. are you guaranteeing that? if not, your statement needs to be rephrased.

I know this, dancer will not guarantee playing on a positive machine perfectly will guarantee a positive outcome. are you?

you leave no room for luck or one's results differing from expected.

[markinca]

[QUOTE=markinca] is is a similar situation to holding AAA over AAA+k in TDB - you'll hit a lot more quads, but lose more long term.

your statement implies every players results will match that of expected results. are you guaranteeing that? if not, your statement needs to be rephrased.

I know this, dancer will not guarantee playing on a positive machine perfectly will guarantee a positive outcome. are you?

you leave no room for luck or one's results differing from expected.[/QUOTE]

I don't know how many times I have to say it but I'll say it again: THE MATH IS NOT A GUARANTEE. For any one gambler, anything can happen. It's only in the LONG TERM that results should approach the theoretical probability.

I will guarantee one thing though. If EVERY player on tdb suddenly kept AAA instead of AAA+k EVERY time, the casino would make more money.

[Lionqueen]

I had a reply but figured you guys would tear me up so I'll stay quiet. 😘

[notes1]

I had a reply but figured you guys would tear me up so I'll stay quiet. 😘

no need to stay quiet. everyone's opinion is welcome.

this apprehension to posting comes up nearly EVERYTIME someone dares cross the math folks.

[notes1]

[QUOTE=notes1] [QUOTE=markinca] is is a similar situation to holding AAA over AAA+k in TDB - you'll hit a lot more quads, but lose more long term.


I don't know how many times I have to say it but I'll say it again: THE MATH IS NOT A GUARANTEE. For any one gambler, anything can happen. [/QUOTE]

then your statement above is incorrect