Does the past matter?

[Eduardo]

Steve, you sometimes talk like you have a high level knowledge of betting, but then you ask some very basic questions like the ones in this topic. You appear buy into most of the rookie superstitions/theories out there that you need to overcome before you put in any real amount of play. I think you are playing way over your head and you need to slow down, play more low stakes (or free) games and get a handle on how some of these things work before you get anywhere close to talking about putting thousands of dollars at risk.

[stevel96a1]

i came here to learn and read. me and my wife had 3 winning years (nothing to brag about) but my wins each year could purchase a new gaming laptop and with change left over not bad for entertainment free food and rooms IMO. i don't think or believe i could accomplish that with slot machines (even tho NJ slot guy claims he had a 38k$ winning year playing atlantic city slots) if i lose i lose its nothing new, Phil's posts were more inspiring and more real than any book i can get because he relates to the common man which is me anyone else who lives outside of LV, it blows my mind how many rich people get richer off gambling theres alot people out there who win/loss 100k in hours and i lost 1k$ playing a positive game and won money playing a negative game gee that makes sense doesn't it? if it looks good, smells good and taste good it has to be good right? wrong again just bad variance on my end well no more five joker poker for me, ive done alot better with real life results playing low violent games than games like ddb or tdb especially with 1,000 credit sessions

its very hard to accept the past is the past and the future is unwritten had i used a crazy positive betting system would have funneled me to the high limit room and suffered the same fate of hands with bigger bets id be a happier guy and now my gut says if i try now im just going to give back my winnings

Dan Paymar says you need a 4000 credits for over 60% chance to hit a royal/jackpot
it makes sense you put in what you get out 1:1 type of deal i guess im just seeing whats not there a balance that should come on-time but usualy never does

[Vman96]

Steve, you sometimes talk like you have a high level knowledge of betting, but then you ask some very basic questions like the ones in this topic. You appear buy into most of the rookie superstitions/theories out there that you need to overcome before you put in any real amount of play. I think you are playing way over your head and you need to slow down, play more low stakes (or free) games and get a handle on how some of these things work before you get anywhere close to talking about putting thousands of dollars at risk.

[/thread]

He shouldn't need to ask questions like this if he wants to possibly win. He should already know the answer. Thinking Phil gives good advice is another bad sign.

[Jstark]

Steve, you sometimes talk like you have a high level knowledge of betting, but then you ask some very basic questions like the ones in this topic. You appear buy into most of the rookie superstitions/theories out there that you need to overcome before you put in any real amount of play. I think you are playing way over your head and you need to slow down, play more low stakes (or free) games and get a handle on how some of these things work before you get anywhere close to talking about putting thousands of dollars at risk.

[/thread]

He shouldn't need to ask questions like this if he wants to possibly win. He should already know the answer. Thinking Phil gives good advice is another bad sign.

And thinking YouTube vloggers are winning players is an even worse sign.

[billryan]

Am I reading this right?
Someone is claiming if you play 4000 coins, one has a 60% chance of hitting a 4000 coin payoff?

[Eduardo]

I think he meant a starting bankroll of 4000 times whatever denom you are playing ($1,000 for quarters). In other words, the value of a royal flush. But I don't know if that's accurate at all. I would be surprised if the odds are that high.

[Eduardo]

Wizard has a table here:
https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-po ... l-or-bust/

Looks like the odds for $1,000 bankroll vary quite a bit by game.

60% would be close on DB and JOB.
DDB your odds are about 47%.
Deuces are way up at 72%.

So... 60% might not be too bad an approximation.

I think I'm overdue for a royal.

[wildman49]

If one had 3 winning years I would stick to what is working. For new readers a 60% shot at the royal is not a real number short term. One can hit a royal on there first hand or go 40001 hands before it hits, plus one can go 80,000 hands without one then hit 2.

Royals need to be thought in the long, term of play. Anyone new to the game should not think a 60% chance is going to happen out of the gate and could lose a lot of Benjamin's!

[Eduardo]

Well, the most benjamins they could lose is 10. So I think the 60% is a reasonable expectation, for a new player or any player given the circumstances (provided they play correctly). As long as you are aware of the fact that there's a roughly 40% chance you go home broke. That's what odds are for. Nobody wants to be in the 40% and those are pretty high odds for losing everything. Still, 60% chance of a royal (which means you are also ahead of course) is much higher than I would have guessed.

Keep in mind though, that doesn't mean you're up $1,000. If you lost $900 before hitting that royal, you are up $100. That's important when it comes to repeating this exercise. 40% of the time you're going to need a fresh $1000 to contribute to try again. And the 60% of the time you did hit a royal, you might not be up that much (though you still have your starting bankroll to try again).

$1000 would be a lot to put on the line for many people. For others, it may not sound like much.

[Vman96]

Am I reading this right?
Someone is claiming if you play 4000 coins, one has a 60% chance of hitting a 4000 coin payoff?

No if you have a 4000 coin-bankroll you'll get the royal before busting about 60% of the time. And that's roughly correct. Depends on games and paytables though as Eduardo linked to in another post.