Pot Shot Strategy Explained

[onemoretry]

Math calculations don't have much bearing here.  If you play DW for any length of time you will see that paying hands definitely bunch up.  This is true because the deuces come and go with a sort of rhythm.  To see this, play DW on this website long enough and you will see what I'm talking about.  I strongly believe that an informed player can take advantage of this quirk. 

There is no question that deuces wild can be streaky. When you're getting dealt lots of deuces, life is really good, and when you're not, it's not a lot of fun. And, contrary to your thought, it is not extremely rare at all to go four or more hands in a row with zero return.

I have been playing video poker for more than twenty years, and have played hundreds of thousands of deuces wild hands. I consider myself to be a very competent informed player, but have yet to identify an exploitable rhythm to the appearance or non appearance of deuces. I do not believe there is such a thing.

It does appear that you are on a particularly good run, and I hope it continues for you.

[FAA]

Hell, even playing long enough on my phone, I detect patterns where the paying hands bunch up. Many machines also exhibit quite distinct hot/cold patterns. I will soon dip into DW waters, as JOB increasingly feels like a job. I need that extra sizzle that those deuces provide. Hope I don't experience double digit dud hand streaks. That will turn me off. 

[alpax]

There is no question that deuces wild can be streaky. When you're getting dealt lots of deuces, life is really good, and when you're not, it's not a lot of fun. And, contrary to your thought, it is not extremely rare at all to go four or more hands in a row with zero return.

I have been playing video poker for more than twenty years, and have played hundreds of thousands of deuces wild hands. I consider myself to be a very competent informed player, but have yet to identify an exploitable rhythm to the appearance or non appearance of deuces. I do not believe there is such a thing.


About 1 in 3 chances you will be dealt at least a single deuce, it should allow the player to win at least once within 4 hands a little more often than to bust all 4 times (which is always possible). I thought about raising bets (denomination) if I get a winning hand naturally (3oaK, straights, flushes, full houses, and even 4oaK) since the chance of a deuces appearing on the next hand will be based on feel.

A $20 high limit potshot I've analyzed allows for 8 hands of play on average, with 4 hands being the minimum of each deal is lost.

I was wondering how the Deuces Wild paytables were at the casinos you've played it in the mid 90s before all of these downgrades after the recession hit. Did you even bother learning the penalty situations for each paytable?

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=onmoretry]I consider myself to be a very competent informed player, but have yet to identify an exploitable rhythm to the appearance or non appearance of deuces.  And, contrary to your thought, it is not extremely rare at all to go four or more hands in a row with zero return.[/quote]Everyone knows streaks happen, it's guessing when they are going to start and stop that's difficult.  I don't guess.  I let the game itself tell me when to bet bigger.  It is true you will occasionally hit a long run of zero hands.  That's why I change machines if I lose my first $20. Math tells you this doesn't make any difference, but it definitely does.[quote=FAA]Don't you feel like your casino visits are akin to a long stakeout?[/quote]Yes it does.  Going to battle with a negative expectation video poker machine on a weekly basis is like snuggling up to a fire breathing dragon. You have to take the small "facts" you know and capitalize on them.  One of them is the streaks that are normal part of wild card games.   There is no formula or strategy that will indicate when these streaks will happen, but I believe you can make the right decision enough times to make a small difference.  I agree I have had some luck on my side, but my winning streak on these pot shots is getting ridiculous. For example, I played today from 9:00AM until 3PM and never got a quad deuce.  I stashed  four tickets and came home only down about $200 for the entire day.  Two of those tickets were from those same $5 machines.  I don't expect professional players to be that informed about any strategy used to play negative expectation games and most recreational players have resigned themselves into thinking they are going to lose most of the time.  I believe these games can be beat, but you need a completely different mind set to do it on a regular basis.  Not enough to make a living, but enough to grow a small bankroll.[quote=Alpax]I was wondering how the Deuces Wild paytables were at the casinos you've
played it in the mid 90s before all of these downgrades after the
recession hit. Did you even bother learning the penalty situations for
each pay table?[/quote]I started paying video poker in the early 2,000s.   I have never personally seen a 100% plus video poker game, even in Vegas. The difference I have seen is in the sheer number of casinos.  Most of the new casinos that came on board in the past 10 years have been in a negative expectation arms race to the bottom and the rest have followed suit.   The Beau Rivage in Biloxi is a good example. I remember when you could play 9/6 Jacks on the main floor and now the high limit room is 7/5.  Why anyone would play there is beyond me.  My game of choice is Airport Deuces and I am aware of all the penalty situations.  I choose to make my own rules and knowingly go against the "perfect" strategy often.  This is primarily because I play so small that each one is only worth a few cents anyway.  You don't need perfect play strategy to beat these games long term. You need to know the strategy, but it takes lots of discipline, observation and common sense to keep your winnings.I lost over 15K a year before I wised up and started playing cheap.  The key to beating these games is to play 90% of your hands as small as possible and play a tiny percentage at a much larger denomination. When your average hand is small and you hit one of your high denomination hands, you grow your bankroll unless you give it back.   I'm all about keeping my wins and not feeding them back into the machine.  That's the difference.

[FAA]

I played today from 9:00AM until 3PM and never got a quad deuce.  I
stashed  four tickets and came home only down about $200 for the entire
day.  Two tickets were from those same $5 machines.  I don't
expect professional players to be that informed about any strategy used
to play negative expectation games and most recreational players have
resigned themselves into thinking they are going to lose most of the
time. These games can be beat, but you need a completely
different mind set to do it on a regular basis.----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Sorry to hear about the bad day. You would have gone home virtually bust if not for the $5 machines, so there is always a measure of solace with the Cheap System. It makes for a soft landing. I play 9/6 JOB to exhaustion but going bust is maddening. I got too big for my britches. Keep it low, keep it slow. Slow and steady wins the race. 90% min, Pot Shot ever so sparingly and I will be back to my break even ledger at least. I have gotten too reckless and spendthrift in recent months.

[FloridaPhil]

I totally understand.  I look at busting as part of the learning process. It rarely happens to me anymore, but when it does I go over my decisions for the day and review what went wrong.  You can't control the cards, but you can control your money.  Video Poker is exactly the same game if you play it for a quarter a hand or $100.   If you play Cheap the majority of the time, you will have that much more money for pot shots.  That's where the profit is in my game these days.  Making the same bet all the time and waiting for the odds to eat you up leads to a continuously empty wallet.  

[FAA]

I don't even bust on max coin play! I bust abandoning quarter machines for the dollar ones at min play. That equates to 80% max play on quarter machines, a foolhardy splurge. I need a positive day again to feel like I'm in control of both bank roll and strategy. It's not happening with extravagant betting. Give no quarter on Quarter. It will become my automatic go to, and stay at, bank again. You don't know what you got till it's gone. I will become the prodigal. Those meat and potato machines have kept me solvent. Keep it simple. Betraying them at this point makes no sense. If the casino gets $20 or $30 out of me on DW pot shots out the door, I accept that fate. It's still much better than my reckless gambits to no avail.

[olds442jetaway]

     I would like to try this method with Airport Deuces, but don't know the long term chances of going bust with a 300- budget. I would like to bet just the amount that will get me even or better if deuces quads hits starting with one coin. After losing 200 coins net, I would bet 2 coins and so on as long as my bet would get me even if the deuces quads hit. Any Royal that hits if ever would be a bonus. The downside of course is busting that 300- budget and never hitting the deuces. Maybe someone will figure out the chances of busting before I try it. Seems to me, you could possibly play all day this way, but we'll see.

[FloridaPhil]

This whole thing started years ago when I read an article touting a strategy where you started betting at single coin and made your next coin increment based on the winnings of your last hand.  In other words, if you won nothing you stayed at one coin, if you won 2 coins you bet three and so on.  I liked parts of the idea, but found betting all your winnings was not a workable strategy because it ate up your money just as fast as max coins with no benefit.  I don't like the Martingale system for the same reason.I thought about this and finally landed on the 4 coin win to max coin bet and it worked much better.  You need those 1-2-3 coin wins to stay in the game. The way it works out is you are playing max coins about 10% of the time while saving 75% of your money on the rest of the hands.  My normal daily budget is approximately $300 a day.  With $300, I can play Cheap Strategy quarters changing to dollar play at $25 all day.  I prefer 50 cent play because a quad deuce is $100 and you can make the jump to dollar play more often, but you need a little more money if you want to play for at least 6 hours.  This also gives you enough money for a few $5 pot shots.  Almost all of my profit in the past six months has come from the $5 machines.I don't play for jackpots, I play to go home with money.   When you get the idea of the big score out of your mind, everything changes.  A $100 win becomes a great thing instead of being depressed because you weren't playing max coins.  This is the mind set change I'm talking about.  When you get your mind right, video poker becomes fun and big jackpots will happen on their own. 

[FAA]

I do not consciously play for jackpots. Forty thousand to one odds would make me a delusional cretin. But with that fat RF bonus always at work, of course I am! Why the hell else am I throwing away $1.25 on a negative expectation game? To get this built in multiplier effect windfall. And if it's a Progressive, an extra $60 on average. Big score baby, $1,060!Phil's philosophy is to scale everything down, including those nice full house payoffs keeping you solvent. If you bet five times less most of the time, it stands to reason that you will need five times less the full house bank roll supplement. Just keep your powder dry and grind out that min coin play until you are ready for Pot Shot Play. He's living for the sweet thrill of PSP. There's a lot to be said for that, as his website's pelts would suggest. This obviously requires much discipline. I haven't committed to it. Easy to put my money where my mouth is. A quarter a hand for most of the visit!