do you trust your beliefs?

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=BobDancer]The vast majority of my bankroll is invested in the stock
market. I'm very aware of it's long-term record and I'm glad to hang on
for the ride. My total bankroll would be less than half of what it is
today were it not for the stock market.[/quote]I find this quote interesting. If Bob truly believes video poker is so profitable, why doesn't he go all in and turn his millions into billions?  I have more faith in American entrepreneurship than I have that a royal flush is going to show itself at the right time and I think he does too.

[onemoretry]

If Bob truly believes video poker is so profitable, why doesn't he go all in and turn his millions into billions? 

How would you suggest he do that? Already, he plays for much higher stakes than most, and for much longer periods of time.

[FloridaPhil]

Why put your money in the stock market?  If I was as confident as he says he is, I would play $100 machines all the time.  I think this is a fair question.  Maybe he's afraid of being banned?  Who knows...

[BobDancer]

Why put your money in the stock market?  If I was as confident as he says he is, I would play $100 machines all the time.  I think this is a fair question.  Maybe he's afraid of being banned?  Who knows...Why are you assuming there are $100 machines with positive EV? If there were, and I were welcome to play, yes I would play them. I have in the past, and possibly will in the future. And yes, hitting too many $400,000 royals will get you kicked out. That is definitely a consideration, but not a major one. Positive games at that level are very rare. Keep in mind there are Risk of Ruin considerations of how much to invest in any opportunity. You should never bet 100% of your bankroll on any risky endeavor. If you have a 20% edge, it's smart to bet more than if you had a 10% edge. If you want to study the Kelly criterion as to what percentage of your bankroll you should bet with any size edge and any size variance, be my guest.I rarely have more than a 0.5% edge in video poker. Betting everything on an edge that size would be foolhardy. That is not my style at all. FP can sneer all he wants that I don't bet everything with a small edge, but he either doesn't understand sensible investing or he's confusing having "an edge" with having "a huge edge." They are not the same. But betting a relatively small part of your bankroll (which for me means $25 machines and lower, most of the time, unless it's a game with a very low variance, like JoB, and the edge is more than 1% --- and I haven''t seen this combination for 15 years), that 0.5% edge will likely turn into a profitable result. Of that I am very confident and I regularly "put my money where my mouth is."If there were more such opportunities where I was welcome, I would play them. But pretty much they need to be in Las Vegas. I have commitments here (radio show, classes, square dancing events with my wife) that preclude a lot of travel just to gamble --- no matter how great the edge is.I also invest in other things --- including the stock market --- and including some other things I don't wish to tell you about. Diversification in your portfolio is considered by many to be prudent. FP is suggesting I do away with diversification. Can anyone think of one good reason for me (or anyone else) to follow his advice?Betting numerous small proportions of your bankroll on good investments (including positive video poker) is smart investing. I do not need to hit a royal immediately. I can run 4 or 5 royal $100,000 cycles behind (which has less than a 0.01% chance of happening) without impacting my lifestyle at all or greatly shrinking my bankroll. It would also not cause me to lose much sleep.If being a royal or two behind causes you a lot of stress, you are overbetting your actual or psychological bankroll.To my mind, this is part of the "have sufficient bankroll" precondition that notes set out in his list. And it's a critical precondition. I don't have his list in front of me, but if he didn't have actual bankroll AND psychological bankroll on his list, I believe he should --- assuming he was trying to accurately parahrase my methods.

[Lucky Larry]

i readily admit i have no expertise about VP, i never give advice about how to play, but i know a little something about investing. there are no guarantees when it comes to investing in the stock market. from what i read from some on this site;-play only positive machines-play 100% accurately-all play is continous-play with proper bankroll-the math cannot be disputed-all machines are honest-all casinos are trustworthy-paytables reflect expected results-play long enough, the expected will occur thus, it seems a logical conclusion, that if one does all the above, one is guaranteed to win. this is not my opinion, just the only conclusion i can draw. i just wonder if those who believe in the above statements have considered trusting those beliefs for real.

notes,
Most of us can't readily access only positive games. We are lucky to have a house edge of only 1-2% on the VP. So we play selectively knowing it is our entertainment money. Even so we play to the best of our ability and learn as much as possible about the comps, the gaming rules, player's club requirements to gain back as much of that 1-2% house edge.

[Lucky Larry]

Putting your money in the stock market is not gambling, it's investing.  Through the stock market you are allowed to buy ownership in the best companies in the world and share in their profits.  Like video poker your bankroll fluctuates on a short term basis.   If you only stay in it for the short term or you jump in and out, you will most likely miss the royal flush...  Unlike video poker, there are hard working people behind these stocks and we live in a country where they are allowed to succeed.  America is the financial engine of the world and people are clamoring to get into it, some even risk their lives to do so.   I want to invest in something that people have that kind of passion about.


Phil, just making fun. Wise investing for the long term (being a 4 index fund Boglehead) using only low cost mutual fund indexes keeps us sleeping most nights really well. Indigestion and sleep deprivation from casino playing does have its impact.    It is our retirement pensions (having retired as underpaid educators-who can't draw our SS without penalty), invested earnings from the Stock Market, and my part-time work that help us have our bankroll and travel monies. Until 2005 I knew very little about investing and less about VP. AS retirement drew closer I made it a point to learn about investing to save "broker fees" and increase my wealth and picked up VP to keep my brain active. Educating oneself to a high level by reading can make a huge difference in both endeavors.

[FloridaPhil]

Contrary to what some people may think, I really like Bob Dancer and enjoy his frequent visits to this forum.  I don't know the real person, but I find the character "Bob Dancer" entertaining and actually can't wait for his next post.   He has created a unique persona for himself and does a great job of promoting his brand.   Personally, I do not believe video poker riches exist.  I believe Bob is an entertainer and his shtick is brilliant.  I also believe he is an excellent businessman.  I believe he makes good money playing and promoting video poker, but I believe he became wealthy by living a financially controlled lifestyle and making smart investments outside of gambling.If others want to believe you can get rich playing video poker, that's fine with me.  When I was a young boy, my hero was superman.  I watched him on TV and I wanted to be able to fly like him more than anything.  I ran around the house with a towel around my neck and imagined I could fly too.  Unfortunately, I had to grow up and realize that I just did not have what it takes.  I feel the same way about the character "Bob Dancer".  It's fun to fantasize that someone can actually beat the casinos.  If you're easily influenced, you need to believe it because it empowers you to keep trying.  Scientists tell us humans like to play video poker because it's an escape from reality.  If hanging onto the belief that your hero can perform super human feats in a casino, I say enjoy yourself.These thoughts are my personal beliefs and should not be taken as gospel by anyone else.  I am sure of one thing.  If I told my wife that I was going to withdraw $500,000 to play video poker has an investment strategy, she would call a doctor first then her lawyer.  

[notes1]

the list i compiled of requirements to make money at VP was not intended to be all inclusive. as i have never read any of dancer's books, articles, broadcasts, attended any of his lessons, or any of his other money making ventures, i was not knowingly repeating any of his previous beliefs. the points i mentioned were simply from posts i had remembered reading on this site, from those who believe the machines are beatable. i still contend, that a reasonable person, could conclude if the conditions mentioned on the list were met, that over time, one should be a guaranteed winner.   as far as stock market investing goes, an advisor who has been in the business for any period of time (i have nearly 30 years) knows better than make any statement that may lead someone to believe there is any impication of expected positive returns or past results suggest anything about future results. folks are sued, lose their licenses and some end up in jail, for those offenses. also, no statements of past performance can be made without independent 3rd party verification.  VP advisors/experts have little in the way of rules. they can say pretty much anything they want, with no offering of proof. 

[onemoretry]

 i still contend, that a reasonable person, could conclude if the conditions mentioned on the list were met, that over time, one should be a guaranteed winner.
I wonder if that same "reasonable person" would also believe that, if you flipped a coin 10000 times, the result would be exactly 5000 heads and 5000 tails?

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=notes1]VP advisors/experts have little in the way of rules. they can say pretty much anything they want, with no offering of proof. [/quote]"Caveat Emptor"..."America's best days lie ahead!"  Warren Buffet 2016