9/6 Double Double Bonus

[alpax]

Though the simulation finished two weeks ago, it is better late than never to close out my analysis of 9/6 DDB. The results for 5 million rounds is complete, I do not think it is necessary to go beyond that.

Note: My estimate for setting the starting bankroll of 100 Royal Flushes was off for the 5 million round simulation, causing there to be a percentage of ruin to appear towards the leftmost bar of the bell curve. Either way it provided a little more information needed I. I will not rerun the simulation as it takes at least 3 whole days to reach this much volume, I learned enough from this.

For interpretation for quarter players looking to play 5 million rounds, with a bankroll of $100,000 to play 9-6 DDB perfectly, there is a 2.21% chance you will not make it through.

5 million max bet penny hands represents a coin in of $250,000 coin in. So $2500 equates to 1% and $1250 equates to 0.5%



NOTE: The rounds say 500,000. It is 5 million, the last digit gets cut off from the graph.

2.73% ruined
5.73% ended with 98.5% or less return.
5.9% did 99.5% or better return with 0.03% (1 in 3000 players) winning outright.

This means about 88% (7 out of 8 players) will fall within 0.5% of the expected return which is close enough for confidence interval purposes.

My Concluding Thoughts about 9/6 DDB:

Double Double Bonus does resemble the aspect of gambling for those that play up to 1 million rounds in their lifetime. The results cast a wider bell curve and there could be possibly be big winners or big losers.

The theoretical edge will not be attained without a very high volume of play, thus it is not recommended for a recreational player to think he or she will just lose one percent of the coin in put in playing DDB. They must prepare for even worse case scenarios, the chances of losing more than the theoretical edge is greater than 50% of the time.

Mistakes hurt and hurt badly. With more than 50% chance the player loses more than the theoretical, any bad habits and mistakes will further increase the percentage of losing more than the theoretical.

To play DDB in the long term, a player must have readily accessible to bankroll funds of 1 1/2 to 2 Royal Flush payouts for every 20,000 rounds they plan on playing for the calendar year to be able to play through it safely. When the next year rolls around, replenish that bankroll to ensure you will be able play through it. Thus, 100k rounds will mean having access to 7 1/2 to 10 royal flush payouts, but it does not necessarily mean the player will spend all of it every year.

Full pay 9/6 DDB is available in most locations, it is vital to only play at locations that will offer the player the best comps for their play to mitigate losses from the player's own pocket.

The more you play means the bigger the bankroll needed. Do not expect to play long term without a source of income that grows the bankroll. Even if a player comes off having a great session with two royal flushes and multiple quad aces with kickers. Still grow the bankroll and do not stop.

Those that have successful results over 500k rounds will not have success if they continue to play upwards to millions of rounds in the long run. I might get flack for bringing this up, but it explains what some people have experienced. They will accuse the integrity of the machines for the downfall, but the results just gets normalized.

As Mr. Dancer mentioned, high variance games require high volume of play. 20-12 Double Bonus Deuces Wild is one of the few games Mr. Dancer plays. At least 6 million rounds were played in
my estimate to assure things go in the favor of the player with decent club benefits provided. That means a ton of hours each week playing for years.

For those that envision or project being capable of playing 5 million hands in their lifetime, I would suggest a better returning game to play than this.

Those that play a high variance video poker game will not be guaranteed to win year in and year out. A loss of over 2% is possible in a single year, and the most generous casino comps may not even cover those losses. Thus having a source of income is needed to safeguard losing years.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=alpax]For interpretation for quarter players looking to play 5 million rounds,
with a bankroll of $100,000 to play 9-6 DDB perfectly, there is a 2.21%
chance you will not make it through.[/quote]Pretty enlightening numbers.  So how bad is 8/5 DDB!!  I played 8/5 DDB for years and lost way more than 2% a year.   I got finally off the DDB Crazy Train and I feel sooo much better.  

[FAA]

So how bad is 8/5 DDB!!  I played 8/5 DDB for years and lost way more
than 2% a year.   I got finally off the DDB Crazy Train and I feel sooo
much better.  --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------I never boarded. And I shall not embark on any DDB voyages anytime soon. Beyond taking the D or B to Yankee Stadium.

[DaBurglar]

Excellent thread, really enjoyable.....alpax deserves praise for the nice math models and explanations, although in defense of notes1 and anyone else who might be intimidated by the seemingly complex monstrosity, its actually pretty simple once you get familiar with what info is truly important versus a lot of the descriptive and supporting elements.Earlier, someone mentioned how "refreshing" it is to read about the honest accounts of people like Mendolsohn who flat out admit they never win.....someone even siad Mendolsohn is an "addict".....     while I agree that realistic, honest accounts that are not distortional in relating successful "hits" at the expense of telling about the Misses  are indeed, GOOD to read and keep players grounded, I am not certain that calling anyone an addict is wise, simply because its all a matter of personal taste and circumstances and in the eye of the beholder.Video Poker in today's casinos is simply NOT a profitable, "winnable" proposition, and it is only by a contrived method of including all the things that Bob Dancer includes, such as every single little tidbit that a casino "gives" back to players, from free slot play to comp'd "whatevers", all the way down to the free valet parking tickets or time stamp.   Only by adding up all the comps and freebies and free t-shirts and key chains does one theoretically wind up MAYBE in some sort of state of "positive value" when they have played enough video poker that probably involves at least 35-40% of their total lifetime over a set period of time (say a year).....I personally do not even want to contemplate having to essentially "LIVE" in and around a casino in order to be able to thump my chest and say "I am a profitable video poker player".....The games by themselves are no longer beatable even if you happen to find a rare, possibly erroneously set paytable that is over 100% (let alone the best-you-can-hope-for 99% still to be found in many places...)   The computers and servers that make up today's games have all been fine tuned and tweaked (within stated gaming regs mind you) to make it as unlikely as possible for most players to have a positive cash flow session of any significance (by that I mean where a player has played at least several hours and is "up" something like a hundred bucks or more....)I like a lot of what Bob dancer says and does and brings to the table, and I do not really care how or in what manner or tone he says it, but I also do not have any desire to follow in his footsteps in terms of dedicating my life to video poker......I will take and use everything else I can from him, but not the "bigger picture" he offers.....and frankly, he is probably GLAD that most of us DO NOT follow in his footsteps, lest his tiny niche suddenly become untenable in the eyes of the casinos which ALLOW him to do what he does.....And there is the rub folks:  If any of us, I do not care who or where we are from or where we play, were to somehow become consistently (and significantly) profitable over the course of time, such that we were pulling in a POSITIVE CASH profit of at least a several hundred bucks (say 400 - 500 or more) nearly EVERY TIME we visited the casino(s) of our choice and rarely LOST money.....and this went on say for a year or two,  we would most likely find ourselves suddenly asked by those casino(s) to kindly NOT play video poker in their "house" again!     I'm serious......likewise, if we were to even break even consistently year after year while scarfing up all the freebies and comps they threw at us, at the very least, unless we started losing a lot more $$ than what the casino was sending back to us in "stuff", we'd easily find the freebies curtailed or even cutoff totally!   It happens all the time......today's casino industry simply does not tolerate long term winners in any of its games....they long ago decided they no longer can "Afford" to tolerate players who, for whatever reason, are luckier (or even "better") than they are!Now before anyone pounces to disagree with any and all I have said, let me redirect attention back to the thing Bob Dancer divulged (whether intended or not) about the so called "TRICKS"  and insider techniques that he utilizes to apparently achieve his "professional aims", tricks and techniques which he states he does not generally share with people, but which I am sure at least some of us probably have a good idea what they are or entail, especially if we just think about it for a little bit.....     Ask yourself this:   If they really truly are "legit" tricks and techniques or simply "cracks in the system" (meaning they are not illegal or not things which will get you banned or in trouble),  would Bob again WANT anyone other than himself to truly be aware or take advantage of them?     I am guessing, NO.    But he at least let us know they are out there and gave us a clue by divulging one of the more obvious "cracks" (the multiple travel reimbursement ploy)......if you want to really reap some profit at least for a little while, try and figure out what Bob's tricks are!!!

[alpax]

I appreciate the compliments DaBurglar and a well written post with regards to the long term view and interests one should have about the game in general. I purposely made the effort to see various long term effects of playing a high variance game like DDB and I certainly have gained something out of it, I think I can answer questions the best I can. I currently play Jacks or Better as a main game, sometimes I struggle with the discipline to play DDB more often since I see those big wins.

I am sure that Mr. Dancer knows way more about video poker than the information I've provided here. I do agree that people may get the misperception that they can make minor adjustments to become a pro, when in reality Mr. Dancer does much much more than anyone to give himself the chance to be successful.

I am sure Mr. Dancer is relieved that Double Double Bonus is by far the most popular game to a point where people would neglect higher theoretical return games such as 9/6 Jacks or Better in favor of playing the game. And on top of that, it is rare that I see people play accurately to a point where 1 percent errors are reasonable, thus getting 9-5 DDB returns on a 9-6 DDB game. Also most casinos force the $1 denomination to get the 9-6 paytable, people will look at the 25cent denomination and play that even though it may be 9-5 or 8-5 DDB.

Vegas is a hotspot since it is highly concentrated with casinos. Rather than playing at a single casino, it is better for a player to spread out their play at multiple locations so that the player is not seen as constantly winning from one location. All the spread out play ultimately should return the same amount as it counts all as an individual's play. A casino would want people to keep on playing.

Those who play VP on vacation trips can play upwards to a few hundred thousand hands, but it takes living nearby the casino and dedication to VP as you stated to play out the millions of hands a high variance game needs.

[alpax]

[quote=alpax]For interpretation for quarter players looking to play 5 million rounds,
with a bankroll of $100,000 to play 9-6 DDB perfectly, there is a 2.21%
chance you will not make it through.Pretty enlightening numbers.  So how bad is 8/5 DDB!!  I played 8/5 DDB for years and lost way more than 2% a year.   I got finally off the DDB Crazy Train and I feel sooo much better.  
[/QUOTE]

I've mistyped the 2.21% for the ruin, it should be 2.73%. Again that number is based off of receiving no comps from the casino (I do see enough people play without a casino club card). I strongly believe getting off that DDB Crazy Train has done wonders and made VP trips less painful. 9-6 DDB is considered to be the full pay edition of the game, thus instantly I learn that any short pay 9-5 DDB or 8-5 DDB is a guaranteed loss after a million hands no matter what comps the casino throws at people.

[FAA]

Rather than playing at a single casino, it is better to
spread out play at multiple locations so that the player is not
seen as constantly winning from one location. All the spread out play
ultimately should return the same amount as it counts all as an
individual's play.------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Dubious premise. What if server based casinos squelch returns? Play where you seem to do best. The grass isn't always greener, nor as green, on the other side.

[alpax]

Rather than playing at a single casino, it is better to
spread out play at multiple locations so that the player is not
seen as constantly winning from one location. All the spread out play
ultimately should return the same amount as it counts all as an
individual's play.------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Dubious premise. What if server based casinos squelch returns? Play where you seem to do best. The grass isn't always greener, nor as green, on the other side.

I am a big believer that the Class III games are fair and I have no knowledge about an IGT Game King machine being server based (I only play single line games made by IGT/Action Gaming). Video reel slot machines can be tightened or lossen on the fly, but the paytable change should be visible on a day by day basis on a video poker machine. Most video poker machines I've seen at Vegas are old so it definitely is not server based.

What I am trying to get at is, rather than playing 250,000 rounds at one place in a 5 year span, if you can play 50,000 rounds at 5 different places (10,000 round each place each year), you can have a more skewed win loss record at each place. Each place will want you to play more at their own places so they will provide the benefits. Probably one or two places will report you as a winner, the others will report you as a loser and will give you offers.

[misterlister]

[QUOTE=FloridaPhil]
[quote=alpax]For interpretation for quarter players looking to play 5 million rounds,
with a bankroll of $100,000 to play 9-6 DDB perfectly, there is a 2.21%
chance you will not make it through.Pretty enlightening numbers.  So how bad is 8/5 DDB!!  I played 8/5 DDB for years and lost way more than 2% a year.   I got finally off the DDB Crazy Train and I feel sooo much better.  
[/QUOTE] thus instantly I learn that any short pay 9-5 DDB or 8-5 DDB is a guaranteed loss after a million hands no matter what comps the casino throws at people.[/QUOTE]

Huh? Playing short pay for a million hands does not guarantee a loss any more than playing +EV doesn't
guarantee a win. You're results SHOULD be better on the better play, but in vp nothing is guaranteed.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=misterlister]Huh? Playing short pay for a million hands does not guarantee a loss any more than playing +EV doesn't
guarantee a win. You're results SHOULD be better on the better play, but in vp nothing is guaranteed.[/quote]This is absolutely a fact.  Posted odds are only a representation of the potential results of playing a particular game.   They are useful, but don't in any way affect your actual results.  Into infinity the game may creep closer and closer to the posted odds.  The lifetime of an individual player is sadly much shorter...