Martingale Strategy?

[billryan]

Who doesn't want financial advice from someone with both a deep understanding of math and an impeccable record of honesty?

[FloridaPhil]

So don't take my advice.  If you don't invest in your own future you will most likely end up living in a rental apartment getting excited about free dinners at South Point.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=BobDancer]FP argues that there is no 100% guarantee you will be a
winner if you continue to play a game where you have an edge. And that's
correct.[/quote]As far as I am concerned, my gambling strategy differences with Bob Dancer are over.  I
believe playing the best VP games perfectly, playing max coins, sticking
within your bankroll and taking advantage of comps will give you the best chance of a positive long term financial result.   My only argument with his strategy has always been
the veiled promise that doing what he does will guarantee to provide anyone
with a "nice living".  I'm not saying it won't.  I'm saying it's a gamble.I have also said I do not personally gamble exclusively for the
best financial result.  I gamble for recreation.  I may take chances
that go against the math.   Throwing away a 4 cent return for the possibility of a royal is worth it to me.  When I walk by a slot with a large grand jackpot, I enjoy the thrill of going for it knowing the odds of hitting it are slim.    Your gambling strategy should fit you alone, not someone else.  If you want the best chance of making money long term,  Bob's strategy is the way to go.  There are no guarantees, but like Bob said there is no guarantee you will be here tomorrow either. There are other areas where we do not agree, but they do not have anything to do with VP strategy.  A person's life experiences and background shape their opinions and mine have obviously been much different than his. Like religion and politics, I think personal lifestyle and career choices are best left out of this forum.  I hope Bob agrees and will stick to VP where his expertise is indisputable.

[Vman96]

Investing in stocks is not gambling.  You control what stocks you buy.  You sell them when they don't perform and you buy them when you recognize their potential. 


And when Bob plays video poker, he acts the same way. If he expects to make money from the game, he plays it. If he doesn't, he doesn't play AT ALL. He controls what he plays with a job-like precision. So how is this different?

[FloridaPhil]

It is different because in video poker you have no control over the cards.  You can play the best games and you can develop computer like skills, but the RNG is random.  Do you want to invest your lifestyle on the whim of a computer chip?  I don't.I don't want to do another stock and bond investment seminar.   Let's just say you have more control over real investments than what happens in a slot machine.  The current average annual stock market return from 1926, the year of the S&P’s inception, through 2011 is 11.69%.  Do you know anyone who makes 11.69% long term in a video poker machine?  The real power of investing is compounding.  This means you reinvest your earnings.  If you are in your 20s and start investing early like I did, you can play all the video poker you want in retirement and laugh at VP strategy.In the case of Apple for example, a $100 investment in the company’s
stock at the beginning of 2002 would now have grown to more than $5,000,
or more than 50 times the original investment.  I was in the computer
industry most of my life and invested early and heavily in this
company.  In May 1997, Amazon went public at $18 per share in an IPO that valued the company at around $438 million. Since then, Amazon's stock has risen by 47,582.67% as its market cap has broken above $335 billion.   There may be hundreds of startup Apples and Amazons in the stock market right now, you just have to find them.There are winners and losers in investing as well.  If you buy stocks and bonds from different sectors of the economy (diversification), you can minimize the effects of these fluctuations.   I'm not on this forum to sell investments or career advice.  I am an old man.  I have been through many many ups and downs.  I have been rich and poor numerous times.  I don't want to see any young person base their career on gambling.  Gambling should be recreation and only with disposable income.  Publicly promoting otherwise could lead people down a road to financial and personal ruin.  The fact that a tiny handful of people can make it work does not change this reality.

[Tedlark]

Phil why would you state that a person is free to gamble their money any way they want but you then say that you don't want to see any young person base their career on gambling?

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=Tedlark]Phil why would you state that a person is free to gamble their money any
way they want but you then say that you don't want to see any young
person base their career on gambling?
[/quote]Because I think it potentially harms people to announce publicly that you make a good living playing VP.  Out of the thousands maybe millions of people who would like to do the same thing, how many people actually do compared to the number of people who have tried and failed? If you are going to gamble for a living, I say do it and enjoy your life.  You don't need to encourage others when the odds of success are so small.  Telling people they can't do it because they are not intelligent, skilled or disciplined enough just taunts them into trying harder.  Long term saving and investing works for everyone.  Attempting to gamble for a living works for a tiny few and hurts and destroys many.If you are already a millionaire and risking another million or so isn't going to change your lifestyle, no harm done.  Few people are in that position.

[onemoretry]

Out of the thousands maybe millions of people who would like to do the same thing, how many people actually do compared to the number of people who have tried and failed?
I believe you could say the same thing about many possible careers. How many aspiring actors or actresses actually make it to the big time?

How many pro athletes are there, as compared to the number of people who thought they had the necessary skills and talent, but, as it turned out, didn't?

[Tedlark]

Exactly OMT, exactly. While we're at it why doesn't ESPN issue a disclaimer before airing the WSOP final table, giving a similar type warning that these results aren't typical and few people ever get so lucky as to be sitting at a poker final table? Or same for the WPT? The list can go on for miles.

Phil keeps bringing up a particular person, without mentioning their name, and painting them out to be a bad person just because of the way they earn a living. The way this same person earns a living has ABSOLUTELY no bearing on my life or the lives of any of my family members and until it does; I'll continue to not give a hoot how this person earns a living.

[FloridaPhil]

You could make that argument about any career choice.  The difference is compulsive gambling is a disorder leading to severe personal and social consequences.  Anyone publicly promoting gambling as a career should be sensitive to the possibility of doing harm to people and families.   If your son plays football, gets recruited by a college and blows out his knee in his first NFL game, would you be OK with his attempt?  What if he went to Vegas and charged up 150K in gambling debts, then told you it's OK because he is playing 100% games?  You can only stretch common sense so far to legitimize gambling as a career choice.  If your son or daughter was an AP, would you be proud of it?  Would you write all your friends and tell them about his latest $100,000 Royal Flush?  How about putting a picture of him next to a slot machine in your Christmas cards?If you choose to gamble for a living, it's your life do what you want.  If you glorify gambling as a career choice, you can't disavow the harm you may cause to the 99.9% of those who fail.