Odds

[onemoretry]

I think the odds calculators are using crazy math
It's no more crazy (but a lot more complicated) than considering the likely result of a coin flip, and then projecting that result out over many, many, repetitions. Very few people would argue that, after say 10000 tries, the number of heads and tails would be exactly 5000 each.

Repeat that exercise over and over, and the results will vary. Sometimes they will be very close to 5000 each, other times not so close, and a small number of times not that close at all.

I believe it's the same with video poker returns. Over a large number of trials, some results will be quite close to the stated average (either better or worse), some will be even further from the average (better or worse), some lucky people will do considerably better than the average, and, unfortunately, some unlucky souls will do much worse than average. That's just the way it is.



   

[ko king]

[QUOTE=FloridaPhil]
I think the odds calculators are using crazy math
It's no more crazy (but a lot more complicated) than considering the likely result of a coin flip, and then projecting that result out over many, many, repetitions. Very few people would argue that, after say 10000 tries, the number of heads and tails would be exactly 5000 each.

Repeat that exercise over and over, and the results will vary. Sometimes they will be very close to 5000 each, other times not so close, and a small number of times not that close at all.

I believe it's the same with video poker returns. Over a large number of trials, some results will be quite close to the stated average (either better or worse), some will be even further from the average (better or worse), some lucky people will do considerably better than the average, and, unfortunately, some unlucky souls will do much worse than average. That's just the way it is.



   [/QUOTE]

I know you're not addressing me and I hope you don't mind my butting in, I can't resist. I get the math and the variance numbers involved for the different games, here's what I think you're missing. For number one you more than likely haven't played for an extended amount of times in the area in which I play, if you've even played here at all. For 17 years running I felt like you, 90-95% of my play was dedicated to one casino, I understood and accepted the ups and downs the game could provide, I lectured others about pay tables, percentages and statistics. 2011 was the time it all changed in this area, not just for me, I knew several players that I knew and talked with that had played for years in that casino. Right after the casino opened up after a brief shutdown it was obvious that something was different. All of the familiar faces were at the casino plugging away at the vp machines but we weren't seeing the premium hands. The premium hands were easy to see because all the machines were arranged in a manner that made it possible, another thing that made premium hands easy to spot was the fact that so many of us played the same game $2 denomination DDB at max play. There were a few others that played $1 denomination TDB and the occasional person that would play Jack or Better. Now those of those that were regular players at that casino tried to stay positive and thought the machines were just a little cold, surely it would come back sooner or later. It did not, the machines stayed cold and it was having an effect on all of us. We all began to talk and discuss our results, without question something was different. The first to vacate the place were the occasional players, most of us regulars were in it for the long run, many were like myself and they had as much as a 17 year history of playing there. The regular players took a 2 year beating and eventually I found myself to be the only one left, I still had that little spec of faith left. After 1 more year of an intense beating I walked away. I started playing in another state, the casino was fairly new and it was pretty large. The casino was packed with players and the first thing I noticed when I ventured back to the vp area was all the familiar faces, faces that I hadn't seen in a while from the other casino. The vp play was just like what we had experienced at the other casino for 17 years, the other casino had lost us for good. The newer casino has expanded twice with plans for a third phase of growth, they need to hurry it up because the place is packed, the gaming is better and people know it. I love the gaming there but I hate the crowd, cigar smoke is not my friend and it's almost always present there. I would still run by the casino that I had spent so many years playing at and it was like a ghost town, that casino closed down, shut the doors. I was forced to spread my wings and find a possible substitute to dedicate my play because the better casino was always packed and often I couldn't even find a machine to play, then there was all the cigar smoke. The vp at the other casinos in that area are no different than what I experienced at the other casino that turned stone cold after 17 years, it's pathetic. Rarely will you see a anyone attempting to play above the .25 level on the vp machines and most are .05 players slow playing the machines for free drinks. When you see someone playing $1 or $2 denomination they're either new or a fool like myself. It's not the pay tables, they haven't changed, it's the quality of play that keeps the players away, it's why they are so void of players. Now I have wised up, I will no longer stand for small market style gaming that for whatever reason cost far more to play. Like I said you can blame it on the nature of the game, but the nature of the game hasn't changed, all the possibilities you mentioned existed all along. Those casinos are starving for players because of a reason in my opinion. All those small market casinos have either changed something with the game or they are the victim of prolonged cold spell. Either way they are suffering the consequences.

[wildman49]

KK I get it about the slow casino but would  it be just not enough play to cycle the machines? The machines play like slots? What is your take on why?Where I play its slow all week and when I hit 4 deuces I leave it on the machine. The higher the level I leave it like at the $1 level as its the best pay table, months go by and its still on the screen. So this is why I ask about cycle of the machines.

[notes1]

for what it is worth and i have no stats to back up my own experience, but i prefer to play at casinos that appear to be doing a lot of business.   it justs seems to make sense that the more customers a casino/any business has, the fixed costs/expenses of that business would be lower per customer. a simple example; if it took a casino $100 to open it's doors, it would cost less per customer if the casino had 100 visitors as oppossed to 50,everything else being equal.  in the end and again my own opinion, i pay more attention to how busy, how many customers does any business have. any business can advertise they have the best price, the highest payouts, but eventually, the consumer will figure out what place provides the best value, the best return. if a business (casino) has be around for a while and the customer base is declining, there has to be a reason. i do not care what paytables they advertise.

[ko king]

KK I get it about the slow casino but would  it be just not enough play to cycle the machines? The machines play like slots? What is your take on why?Where I play its slow all week and when I hit 4 deuces I leave it on the machine. The higher the level I leave it like at the $1 level as its the best pay table, months go by and its still on the screen. So this is why I ask about cycle of the machines.



Well I brought that up on this site when I started noticing something just not only seemed different but my results were so bad. I mentioned the fact that I had two different bartenders I had gotten know tell me I was pretty much the only person that came to that casino and played $1 denomination. Their exact words were that 99% of the people that even bother to play the vp machines only slow play .05 denomination in order to get free drinks, I was the only one dumb enough to play $1 denom. I brought up the idea that my poor results may be because I'm pretty much the only one pushing the cycle. The replies I got were all the same, my results should only be a reflection of the amount of hands I played, the variance of the game, the statistics and possibly a little luck, good or bad. I've had plenty of ideas and thoughts as to why the results vary so widely between the small market casinos and the larger ones but none of them seem to pan out when I introduce them on this site. I mean if the casinos aren't manipulating or adjusting the machines the RNG in one casino should be the exact same one used in all casinos so I would love to hear an intelligent enlightened view on what is really going on. There is zero doubt in my mind that even a player like Bob Dancer would fare no better than myself playing at one of these local small market casinos. It's just not possible, there's not that much to the game, learn the correct method of play for your game of choice, pick the best pay tables and get to it. I don't use any different strategy when I play at any casino, if the pay tables are bad I don't play there. The differences are huge when you play small market casinos versus larger ones and the only thing I can see is that far fewer people are playing at the smaller casinos. I even thought it could be possible that the other players who slow play .05 denomination at one credit for free drinks may be hitting the quality hands leaving none for anyone else. All of these casinos in this area used to draw huge crowds, now there are just a few that draw decent crowds with one particular casinos standing out in a big way. None of these casinos started out being labeled small market casinos they just developed into being in that category, no doubt they didn't choose to be the least attended casinos in this area but that's what they have become. If they're not messing with the machines or the RNG's there has to a logical answer, just pointing out the possible levels of variance involved mean nothing because the same levels should exist at each and every casino. I still believe the best chance to experience better results only exist in larger more played casinos. Others must believe the same exact thing because none of them are playing at small market casinos anymore. Now that doesn't quite explain what happened to the biggest and best casinos we had in this area. that casinos as thriving with vp players even after they had chased a huge majority of slot players off. the vp play didn't turn bad until after they opened back up for business after a brief shutdown. it took a couple of years for the vp players to exit the building, that casino shut down recently. I noticed something similar to what you did, I hit a small quad for $250 on one machine and cashed out to quit for the night. I got up the next morning at 7 A.M and made sales calls all day, I didn't get back to the casinos until around 6 P.m., no one had toughed the machine since me.

[ko king]

for what it is worth and i have no stats to back up my own experience, but i prefer to play at casinos that appear to be doing a lot of business.   it justs seems to make sense that the more customers a casino/any business has, the fixed costs/expenses of that business would be lower per customer. a simple example; if it took a casino $100 to open it's doors, it would cost less per customer if the casino had 100 visitors as oppossed to 50,everything else being equal.  in the end and again my own opinion, i pay more attention to how busy, how many customers does any business have. any business can advertise they have the best price, the highest payouts, but eventually, the consumer will figure out what place provides the best value, the best return. if a business (casino) has be around for a while and the customer base is declining, there has to be a reason. i do not care what paytables they advertise.

I agree, it's like one steakhouse advertising they have the best steaks and prices in town and the parking is empty. common sense says if the food was so great and cheap the lot would be full.

[wildman49]

 I noticed something similar to what you did, I hit a small quad for $250 on one machine and cashed out to quit for the night. I got up the next morning at 7 A.M and made sales calls all day, I didn't get back to the casinos until around 6 P.m., no one had toughed the machine since me.See people don't understand a machine cycle. I think you do. At the .05 level people are cycling that deck a lot. At the .25/.50 the deck is not the same as .05 because the pay table is different. The same goes for the $1 level most machines at that level have a higher pay table then .25/.50 there for it has its own deck of 52. Now for the math, the four of a kind odds are 1 in 423 in non wild card games. After the four of a kind hits math says on the average another 423 till the next give or take a few hands. If no one is playing at the $1 level your the only one cycling the deck and it makes the odds even longer then for say a's with kicker at 1 in 16,000 even harder and more costly.I am in the camp that once I hit the 4ok I am off to the next machine looking for a shorter cycle to the next hit.  

[onemoretry]

I am in the camp that once I hit the 4ok I am off to the next machine looking for a shorter cycle to the next hit.  
You, of course, are free to do as you want. And there is no harm in switching machines. However, I believe that this thinking is incorrect - there are no "cycles"

The likelihood of hitting a quad is about 1 in 423. It doesn't matter what the result of the previous hand or series of hands was.