Major mistake?

[ko king]

[QUOTE=ko king]
Define "long term".

Well that's the thing - long term is however many hands it takes to give you the confidence interval you want.

Unfortunately I don't know the exact numbers, but you can run a simulation and it can calculate your expected losses and how many of the simulations came within X of the expected loss. The more simulations you run, the closer and closer all of your sims will be to the expected loss.

Just doing a quick search online, I couldn't find anything like this, but there is a roulette simulator at http://vegasclick.com/gambling/houseedge. As you run the sims, you can see that after 1, 10, or even 100 spins, the results can be all over the place, but at just a million spins, the result is almost always very close to the expected 5.26% loss. You can imagine that with more hands, it'd be even closer. Is it possible that you'll actually be up money after 1 million hands? Try it yourself and see. I doubt you'll ever get one.[/QUOTE]

Here's the problem I have with long term expected returns run on simulators, you're not using real money. I think I read in a previous post you made where you used a coin as an example, over short intervals the heads or tails ratio may get a little out of whack but over time the numbers should and probably would get close to a 50/50 ratio. There are numerous sets of examples using different things that could be used to get expected ratios and all of them would provide proof that numbers don't lie, I'm with you on that. When outside influences aren't involved I love math and use it all the time while I'm working, I figure drive ratios, sizes for items needed to move certain materials and all sorts of other things, math is great. Now there are times when outside influences can even have an effect on best laid plans such as weather and human involvement. This is where I get back to numbers and casinos/corporations, the human effect on the numbers. There was a time when I did trust the casinos/corporations, not so much anymore. I still enjoy the game of video poker and years ago I would testify to anyone that would listen when questioning the game. I was a walking talking perfect example of the numbers don't lie when it comes to playing video poker. I could show people the statistics and payback percentages over years of play that would provide proof that the math worked even when playing video poker in a casino/corporation. I'm not so sure anymore that actual math and statistics apply to some if not all the casinos/corporations in my area anymore and it took years for me to lose that faith. I went from a player that swore by the numbers to one that has become very skeptical and the actual math and numbers brought me to the point I am at now. Would or could the numbers still work in the casinos/corporations in my area, I don't know, but you can sure in my case prove they don't. Am I an exception to the rules, well I don't seem to be when talking to many other players or just noticing how few players are left anymore. I'm pretty much convinced something changed in an industry that went from boom to near bust here, I think it had to or even more casinos/corporations would close their doors and thousands more employees would lose their jobs. Gaming revenue has dropped drastically year after year around these parts and it's not because of increased competition, players just quit going or changed the way they play for reasons. My guess is the math just wasn't working for them anymore or they couldn't handle the "long term" effect to kick in any longer. Like I said I still enjoy playing on occasions but I don't take it serious anymore, I'm playing to control my losses each time I go because I want the ability to continue playing. Did I making a mistake by not holding the kicker with the trip aces, for sure, did I control my losses for that day, for sure.

[Lionqueen]

I've been following this thread for a few days with interest. So today when I was dealt 3A with kicker twice I decided to take your advice, do the smart math and hold the kicker. I'm not doing that again and will be very happy with the 800 in the future. I've drawn the other ace with kicker too many times to believe it's a completely incorrect move.
I respect the fact you choose the correct move and hope you math folks respect us that rely on luck & timing when dealt this controversial hand.

Sidenote: A few weeks ago I was dealt 4 Aces on 5 play and did not draw a single kicker. What are the odds of that happening?

[markinca]

Sidenote: A few weeks ago I was dealt 4 Aces on 5 play and did not draw a single kicker. What are the odds of that happening?

That sucks, but the probability of not hitting a kicker on 1 draw is 35/47, and so the probability of not hitting a kicker in 5 consecutive draws is (35/47)^5, which is roughly 23%, which is really not that rare! In fact, this probability is about the same as the probability of drawing the kicker on a 1 play.

[Lionqueen]

Thanks - Good to know. Ready for school to start?

[jetermacaw]

It's real simple, if you're not going to hold the kicker then don't play TDB, stick with DDB or DB.

[notes1]

I've been following this thread for a few days with interest. So today when I was dealt 3A with kicker twice I decided to take your advice, do the smart math and hold the kicker. I'm not doing that again and will be very happy with the 800 in the future. I've drawn the other ace with kicker too many times to believe it's a completely incorrect move.
I respect the fact you choose the correct move and hope you math folks respect us that rely on luck & timing when dealt this controversial hand.

Sidenote: A few weeks ago I was dealt 4 Aces on 5 play and did not draw a single kicker. What are the odds of that happening?

as long as you are playing with your money, giving your experiences, not telling anyone else how to play, you have every right to play/post what you want. as best I can tell, everyone who posts on this forum is an amateur, except one, and looses money playing VP. it is as simple as that.

[Lionqueen]

And I'm certainly in that 'every one' else group. . But I do love the game and enjoy the discussions.

[notes1]

good for you, enjoying the game is what matters and limiting our losses to what we can afford.

I should correct one thing I said, there may those who are winners over the past 5 years here. I would enjoy hearing from them, and how they did it.

[markinca]

I'm not doing that again and will be very happy with the 800 in the future.

Well it's not like the other ace comes in that often. If you hold AAA, you'll get the 4th ace (regardless of kicker) only about 4.3% of the time, for an average win of about 1500 credits. If you hold AAA+k, you'll get the 4th ace only about 2.1% of the time, so only half as often, but when you do hit, you'll be getting paid about 2.5x as much, so that's why I'd personally do it.

Even if I didn't know any of the math, I'd just figure since both outcomes are pretty rare, I might as well just shoot for the royal flush-like jackpot.

[markinca]

good for you, enjoying the game is what matters and limiting our losses to what we can afford.

I should correct one thing I said, there may those who are winners over the past 5 years here. I would enjoy hearing from them, and how they did it.

I'm up over the past 3ish years, which only amounts to just a little over 200,000 hands. It helps that I've been overroyalled by about 2, but it's mostly because the majority of my play has been at FPDW with the occasional foray into 10/6 DDB and 9/6 JoB (when there's a point multiplier going on). Also, I'm not up a lot dollar-wise because virtually all of my play is single line quarters.

I just play because I have fun doing it, and it doesn't hurt that I'm up!