Royalless Streak Round Three

[olds442jetaway]

I had intended to make a scouting run at Foxwoods last night, but I got a last minute room at Mohegan and had a little free play so I decided to just stay put up there especially since it is Memorial Day today and the crowds would have made a scouting mission difficult even in the wee hours. I played some deuces wild and job for a few hours. No royal of course and I had only two quads on job. Of course they were aces and twos. Would I expect anything different. The guy I was playing next to is also a regular who abandoned the terrible odds on vp at Twin Rivers in RI. He plays strictly 9/6 quarter job. The best I can figure after talking with him is so far this year at Mohegan he has played between 300k and 400k hands of 9/6 job. I have played now of all forms of draw poker close to 600k hands for the year. He has hit 9 royals at Mohegan which puts him right about on schedule and is even or better for the year. Just his experience and record leads me to believe my lack of royals is just bad luck unless my card is somehow marked which I doubt. He does have an interesting theory however on the rng situation. Like me, on job he gets quad aces far more than any other hands followed by 2s,3s, and 4s,. His theory is the job games do dole out quads in the correct frequencies, but the excessive quad aces are to entice players into playing DDB or one of the other gimmick games where payouts are very high for the aces. To make up for the excessive quad aces, things like quad jacks or something similar would come in less often. I have had several other job players tell me that they hit quad aces far more than any other quad, yet if they play DDB, they rarely hit them and the paytables are much poorer throught the casino on the games that pay high for quad aces. There isn't enough data to confirm this and even if it were true the 99.54 job returns would still hold as long as the programing was adjusted accordingly by making another high card quad come in less often. All of this is just speculation and none of us have exact numbers, but I think I will start charting how often the various quads hit when I do play job. It could also be that we just remember better that quad aces came in instead of another quad, but at least in my case any time I play an entire job session, I almost always hit quad aces anywhere from one to three times per session and the same goes for quad deuces when playing job.

[FloridaPhil]

I think quad aces seem to hit more because our brain remembers them more than other quads.  It is entirely possible that someone may play their entire life without a royal.  It may be mathematically improbable, but it can and does happen.  If this happened to me, I am positive I would doubt the fairness of the games.  Unfortunately, the number of hands played has no influence on what the RNG is going to do while you are playing.  This is exactly why I am skeptical when someone claims to possess enough skill to consistently beat this game.  In real poker games you can bluff your opponents or use your experience and/or perceptive skills to determine your next move.   You can't bluff a video poker machine, it doesn't sweat when it has four aces and it could care less who's pushing the buttons.  If the cards don't go your way, there isn't enough skill in the world to positively affect your results.

[olds442jetaway]

Believe me, I have tried to bluff the machine many times over the years. Nothing works of course. Some of the trys are......taking the player's card out and putting it back in, cashing out and putting the ticket back in, standing off to the side of the machine out of your seat, standing at the machine, switching games back and forth, replacing your card with the wifes, playing with no card at all, machine hopping, having someone else hit the draw button, hold cards on the glass instead of the buttons, changing denomination back and forth, changing the timing on drawing cards, and on and on....Now before you guys and gals laugh your a.. off, which is OK by the way, think about some of the wacky stuff you have tried.

[FloridaPhil]

I think the wackiest thing I ever tried was playing deuces wild until I had a run up then switching to DDB trying to hit a quad with house money.  It never failed to disappoint me.  If you want to see a whole lot of quad aces with a kicker, play deuces wild for a couple of hours!   Others thought me playing single coin for all that time was pretty wacky.  It actually had some good math behind it and did exactly what I was trying to accomplish.  Most didn't understand my goals and why it worked in my case.  My mistake was thinking everyone understands what playing a "negative"  video poker game actually means.  

[FAA]

I very rarely get quad aces on JOB, my only VP game. The theory does not hold water for me. Even with your neighbor's fortuitous nine quads in 350,000 hands, he's still a net loser damning the torpedoes with the all max all the time philosophy. If I can somehow time a second on the year and really end up ahead, AC will be a fond 2016 memory after Labor Day. My whole deal from here on out is to quit craps and pray for the RF. 

[olds442jetaway]

     I was wondering about this for an occasional vp diversion. Mohegan Sun just installed some partial live Roulette games. They have a real wheel and live person spinning, but you sit at a terminal of your own to bet. I like the concept of not having to rub body parts with others reaching all over you to make bets and also the sometimes rude or drunk people. The downside of course is the 0 and 00 are both on the wheel meaning long term results will be at least 5% less than full pay. In my case however, no matter how hard I try at vp, my long term results are still 95% even on 99% games. That said, I haven't tried the Foxwoods option yet. I would like to try Fla Phil's CS on Roulette for just one session just to see what happens. There are streaks in Roulette just like vp. I am talking betting mainly red and black here. I have seen as many as 14 reds in a row and 11 blacks just from watching the game once in awhile. I wonder now if I bet say 5 bucks on red and had wins of 4 in a row, do I bet red again for 20 bucks and maybe throw a buck each on the 0 and 00 for insurance. Just a thought. I have nothing to lose at least nothing more than I am losing on vp anyway. Maybe I could make a few bucks short term.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=olds442jetaway]I would like to try Fla Phil's CS on Roulette for just one session just
to see what happens. There are streaks in Roulette just like vp.[/quote]Warning!   Results may not be typical...  

[FAA]

That's exactly my reasoning when VP was going cold for me! Pursue a craps diversion and make a few short term bucks. I even bet with the damn house on the "dark" side. Seven out, suckers! The only thing that darkened was my heart.

[olds442jetaway]

At this stage of the game, I will take any results I can get. I already know there are no royals left to give me, but now 4 sessions without quad deuces and between 10k and 20k hands on multi line bonus deuces games per session. The only thing that partially saved me was a higher than normal frequency of 5 aces. Had I been playing regular deuces, they wouldn't have helped me much. One really nice hit on the one session I did play Double Bonus Deuces Wild on the Multi Strike machine. Five aces on the top line so that was 160x8x5=6400 nickels. Still saving this machine for you Phil, but warning it is feast or famine with this beast. I have seen players that play quarters or dollars on this machine pull down between 5k and 30k per session on it. One regular that can afford to play dollars on it caught a Royal on the top line for a cool 32 grand. I was there to see the hand pay. He had put about 1200 into it and it was costing him twenty bucks a deal.

[billryan]

I used to play Oscars Grind on the electric roulette games at Harrah's.,two or three hours a day. Played enough one vacation to get Platinum status and lots of room offers for several years. Boring as hell. These days I might bring n electronic book to read.