Quarter Deuces

[FAA]

Olds has sputtered after those sublime RF windfalls of yore. Glad I'm just reading about it on a frigid night. Still warmer than his machines.

[olds442jetaway]

     We will see tomorrow night if Mohegan Sun has paid its gas bill for the fireplaces outside, or will the chill inside spread to out? They have the best Italian Roast coffee I have ever had at the new Bean and Vine coffee shop and I enjoy it outside even in the cold if the gas fireplaces are on. However, if the chill inside continues, the fire outside is out, my coffee gets cold, and the drips after rain, snow, and ice in their flat roof ceilings keep my machine colder than my Fireball whiskey on the rocks, this player is gone wounded and torn to make a final stab at its closest neighbor.

[FloridaPhil]

My business trip was successful.  Video poker not so good this time. I tried playing the 96.77% game and the volatility of this game is off the charts.  Lost about $200 right away.  I finally got on the two 98.9% machines that are left and hit a quad deuce for $250.  Lost my seat and I was faced with going back to the bad games or playing single coin dollar 98.9% VP.  I played from 12 noon on Monday until 8:00 PM that night.  Tuesday morning I decided to try my hand at triple play deuces wild.  I haven't played much multiple hand VP up until now.  It's fun and I can see the attraction. Funny how you can get down to the end of a hundred dollar bill and come screaming back in just a few hands. Being dealt a royal or a quad deuce must be heaven.  The good thing about triple play is it really builds up the comp points.  I earned my Elite level card back in a few hours.I didn't hit a royal or another quad deuce.   All totaled, it cost me $600 in the casino to get a free room in the hotel and a nice dinner.  They gave me a suite this time.  I didn't ask for it.  A room at the Hollywood Hard Rock costs $475 a night.  I'm not sure it's worth that much, but Miami hotel rates are very high.  My overnight casino stay turned a 500 mile round trip business trip into a fun outing.  The 98.9% games are still gone.   I emailed the slot manager again.  I'm not holding my breath until they bring them back.This consulting work will make me an extra $5k in play money.  I don't care who you are or how skilled you are, you definitely need an extra source of income to play VP seriously.   The ups and downs of this game are far too radical for anyone on a budget.  My advice is to gamble with money you don't care about.  If you win, it's a bonus.  If you lose, you had fun and a chance to win.  What other form of recreation does that?   

[onemoretry]

     Quad deuces failure last 3 sessions or 18,000 hands. As vman was so nice to compute for me, failure in the next session with a 4 session total of 24,000 hands if it happens will have a one in 89 chance of happening That's not really correct. In order to "achieve" the zero for 24,000 you need only to go zero for the next 6000, about a I in 3 likelihood. The fact that you've gone zero for the last 18,000 is irrelevant.

[FloridaPhil]

I read somewhere that playing triple play VP takes less of a bankroll.  Is this true?  Please explain.

[onemoretry]

It depends. If you spread the same total bet over multiple hands, the variance is much less. But, if you simply increase your bet from single line quarters to triple line quarters, you need a larger bankroll - not necessarily three times larger, but larger nevertheless.

[wildman49]

It depends. If you spread the same total bet over multiple hands, the variance is much less. But, if you simply increase your bet from single line quarters to triple line quarters, you need a larger bankroll - not necessarily three times larger, but larger nevertheless..Where I play we just don't have any good pay tables at muti hand or I would play it. Just can't see giving up 1% or more to muti so I stick to single play.current temp 24

[FloridaPhil]

The multi line deuces wild game odds are equal or better than than the single line game at one of our casinos.  All games are seriously negative, so it would seem less coin in equals less money to the house.  Thanks

[olds442jetaway]

[QUOTE=olds442jetaway]     Quad deuces failure last 3 sessions or 18,000 hands. As vman was so nice to compute for me, failure in the next session with a 4 session total of 24,000 hands if it happens will have a one in 89 chance of happening That's not really correct. In order to "achieve" the zero for 24,000 you need only to go zero for the next 6000, about a I in 3 likelihood. The fact that you've gone zero for the last 18,000 is irrelevant.[/QUOTE]

     This is where we get into the age old question of odds vs probability again. Yes, the odds of not hitting the quad deuces might be in that one in three range, but the probability of my going the 4 sessions or 24,000 hands consecutive is still one in eighty nine as VMAN computed.

[onemoretry]

I do not believe there to be an age old question of odds versus probability, as they are simply two different ways of saying the same thing.

If an event has a 10% chance of occurring (i.e., the probability is 0.1), it can also be described as having a 1 in 10 likelihood of happening, or that the odds are 9 to 1 against it. And, more relevant to the current discussion, it has that exact same probability no matter what has happened previously.

The 1 in 89 probability of going 24000 consecutive hands without hitting deuces applies to the next 24000 hands, not to some lesser number. You need only 4000 more misses to get to the 24000 number, and, as I stated above, the likelihood of that happening is about one in three. So, you now have that one in three chance to "achieve" what was originally a one in 89 prospect.

A coin flip is a 50-50 proposition. You have a 50% chance of getting heads on the next flip. The probability of flipping five heads in a row is .5x.5x.5x.5x.5, which equals .03125 (1 in 32). But, if you've already flipped four heads in a row, the probability of getting that fifth one is still 0.5.