Over the Edge, Part I - The Magical Replenishing Bankroll

[Eduardo]

This is Part 1 of a new series of topics I have been thinking about, in which I hope to explore playing video poker WITHOUT an edge - and why you just might not be a complete idiot for doing so. If you are an advantage player, this series is not for you (but feel free to participate). For the rest of you, if you actually enjoy video poker as a hobby and aren't committed to playing it as an occupation, I would love to hear your thoughts.

Disclaimers: (Since this is the first in a series)
1) Nothing in this series will cause you to have an edge over the casino.
2) My goal is not to encourage people to play irresponsibly. I define "irresponsibly" not as "losing money" but losing more money than you ought to lose in your present life circumstances. If you have money for entertainment and you find video poker entertaining, then you probably fit safely into my definition.
3) When I say you "may not" be an idiot for playing these games, realize you may very well actually be an idiot any way.
4) These are not excuses for bad behavior, but a different way at looking at the games than most "advantage players" tend to have. There are a lot of people in this world who come up with excuses for poor choices or for gambling irresponsibly. If you have a problem with gambling addiction, stay away from it. I think it's important that we all consider these things when it comes to playing video poker and have an honest view of who we are as a player. Never bet more than you are prepared to lose.

Having said all that, if you love video poker, you're not in it to grind away the hours for a long term fractional percent of an edge, I give you...

Over the Edge, Part I - The Magical Replenishing Bankroll
With advantage play, you often hear about your bankroll. You need a certain amount of money from the outset in order to survive the ups and downs of the game, to keep your "risk of ruin" to a minimum. After all, if you don't have enough money to bet, you may run out before those much needed Royal Flushes come along in order to realize the long term expectations of the game. That's helpful advice when it comes to calculating your odds of coming out ahead in a given situation. It is essential if you are going to try to make a living out of the game. With a positive pay table (plus comps) played perfectly in the right circumstances, your bankroll could creep up over time, even to sizable amounts for experts who really apply themselves.

But what if your "bankroll" isn't just a number that you started with? What if, somehow, your gambling bankroll increased over time any way, whether you were on a positive machine, a negative machine, whether you won today or lost tomorrow? What kind of sorcery is this Magical Replenishing Bankroll? It is nothing magical at all, of course. In fact, I think most players have this type of bankroll whether they realize it or not.

For me, I only play video poker on vacation. I usually have around $500 with me for playing, and this money is set aside for nothing else. I expect to lose it all, but I of course hope to win a lot of money on a trip. But if I do lose it all, I'm not "broke." My bankroll is now zero, but this isn't the sum of my finances. It's just money I had set aside to play video poker. The most I can lose on a trip, then, is $500. That is true whether I play a 101% game or a 95% game. In a limited amount of play, in fact, you really can't guarantee a profit no matter what the pay table. On a short vacation with a limited budget, the pay table in reality will say more about how long I play than my odds of "winning." Better odds of a winning trip do come with being able to play more hands while looking for a jackpot. So pay tables do matter. But an "edge" is not critical in this mindset. Like I said, I can easily bust my small budget with or without that edge.

And at the end of the trip, the magic happens... I plan another vacation. No matter how it went, whether I played 9/5 or 9/6, my gambling bankroll is suddenly at $500 again. Poof! How? Well, because I have a job and I make money. And I go on vacation, and I plan for entertainment. So I set aside another $500. Just. Like. That.

For some players, your Magical Replenishing Bankroll may be a paycheck, a retirement fund or a pension. Careful... you worked hard for that money and it is there for both now and the future. The last thing you want to do is waste your future on a silly game. So be smart. But if you worked hard, have the means and set a reasonable budget... then it may very well be that the Edge isn't what you are looking for. Your Magical Replenishing Bankroll can provide ongoing entertainment in just about any game!

I realize this is heresy to an advantage player. How much will you lose over your lifetime playing bad pay tables?!?! How much will you give to the casinos in your lifetime? Well, how much will you spend in your lifetime eating out when you could have saved by eating Rice-a-roni every day? How much will you spend on movies in your entire life when you could have been playing charades in the mirror at home for free? Does anyone keep those personal stats? Point being, most of us actually see gambling as entertainment. What's more, it's one of the only kinds of entertainment where you can actually go home with MORE than you arrived with. That's part of the fun of it. And along with that, you concede that the big casinos and hotels aren't built on making winners out of people all the time. So you know the odds are against you, but you're in it for the sport. And as long as you have a Magical Replenishing Bankroll, you really have nothing to fear.

To be honest, the long term results don't really matter to me and I've stopped even keeping track. Video Poker for me has become about individual experiences. In my case, one vacation at a time.

[olds442jetaway]

I like that way of thinking and the quote short run can be longer than one’s lifetime. Anything can and does happen in the short run.

[Vman96]

I think it's fine, but I would still suggest playing the best paytables you can find for where you want to play.

Winning > losing slower > losing faster. Imo.

[New2vp]

To be honest, the long term results don't really matter to me and I've stopped even keeping track. Video Poker for me has become about individual experiences. In my case, one vacation at a time.

Reasonable assessment. I'm sure this fits a lot of members to some extent. Depending on the stakes you play, you still might to keep a little track just in case you get a couple of those longed for W-2Gs. You might not want to pay taxes on those winnings when you have offsetting losses.

I do like your disclaimers, particularly the 3rd one. We're all apt to overlook something from time to time.

[stevel96a1]

Eduardo, you been around for a long time, going in any gambling with a "Fixed Bankroll" say of 500$ is one thing Philip Koetsch somewhat opened my eyes on what can actually happen with that 500$ roll, the most one can win, betting pennys over time vs betting it all in 1 shot can certainly open/alter the odds of doubling or cloning your roll multiply times. i have been creating theories that newer machines with newer interfaces/skin type has a more wider result on your win/loss rate the newer ones seem to have a longer loss cycle due to their speed of the RNG engine.

i have been going in with a 500$ br and playing DW44 and doing better, that extra 250$ helps alot for 2nd chance to go on that streak of capturing the 2's if first attempt fails, most experts say only play 99% or higher after 2 years of winning small i see why, im playing 97% and their compensation makes up for that 3% im missing out on, a 97% DW vs a 97.30 job beats the snot any day best i can hope for is a straight flush woopdy doo, but DW 40% of my sessions i capture the 2's early in and give me that peace of mind we all like choosing your game and your bank roll controls your fate of gambling

i caught a nice wave of royal flushes early in this year and i want it again
and the day i lose 3,000$ playing VP i will hang up the hat and try only positive VP
but past 2 years and this year has been kind to me so i will continue the fight

as for everyones budget everyone is different, like stephen paddock brother said not everyone works at taco bell, i take down my weekly pay cheek maybe you do too but im sure our pay cheeks are greatly worlds apart so if some poor joe losses 10k that could be his yearly income he pissed away or some other joe losses 10k that could only be 10% of his yearly income everything is relative to your jobs income

[olds442jetaway]

Agree with Vman. I also agree on the newer nachines that the loss cycles are longer. I play a lot of vp and the win cycles seem to be short and compressed and the loss cycles very very long. My sessions run 8 to 12 hours because of that and sometimes another 4 hours the bext day.

[olds442jetaway]

I also am finding the small hits which are the ones that keep you playing seem nonexistent many tines. Then out of nowhere a nice big hit sonetines followed close together by another one. Last week I played 1200 hands of job without a full house. I then got 2 back to back, one miss abd another fh. Then within 5 minutes 3 quads. I was almost out until those hit

[New2vp]

How are you measuring a machine's loss cycle? How long did they used to be? How long are they now? Are they 20% longer now? 30%? How do you know when you are in one? Or, better yet, when they are about to stop?

If it is easier to answer similar questions about a machine's win cycle, feel free to substitute "win" for "loss" in the previous questions.

[FAA]

1200 hands of JOB without a FH. Then back to back, one miss and another FH. Then within 5 minutes 3 quads. I was almost out until those hit.
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I would have been out after 1,200 hands. Out of patience, and at least -$100. Depressing cycle. That's been my trip hand ceiling! I'd go home like a slaughtered lamb. I can recall a stretch last week when the FHs came at a brisk clip. That was so nice.

[Eduardo]

1200 hands of JOB without a FH. Then back to back, one miss and another FH.
...
I can recall a stretch last week when the FHs came at a brisk clip. That was so nice.

It almost sounds... random.

But I admit the odds of going 1200 hands of JOB without a FH, then getting two of them back to back, then missing one, then hitting another one are incredibly long. In fact, I'd probably give someone 5 bucks if they can duplicate that exactly.