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Death by way of Spin Poker
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Idgie
- Forum Newbie
- Posts: 5
- Joined: Tue Dec 29, 2009 1:33 am
Death by way of Spin Poker
I just got killed playing Spin Poker, using basic JOB strategy and sticking to it. Some seem to love this game, but is it for the conservative player?
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damule
- VP Veteran
- Posts: 551
- Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2008 4:59 pm
I just got killed playing Spin Poker, using basic JOB strategy and sticking to it. Some seem to love this game, but is it for the conservative player?
Most experts say spin poker plays exactly like regular video poker with the same strategies. I completely disagree due to my experiences on the game. In normal spin poker where there are 9 pay lines, the middle position or #3 position has a higher value than any of the other positions. The reason for this is that 5 of the 9 paylines cross the #3 position while only 4 paylines cross the other positions. This makes the #3 position more valuable than the other positions on the deal. So what cards you hold off the deal should be altered by the position due to value. For the experts not to identify this is beyond me. I have played this game in certain forms such as DDB, TDB and DWB and have had some limited success with my own modified startegies. But overall I know no one who has been a big winner at this game. My brother is a spin poker fanatic and even with the use of my modified strategies his success has been limited. What is most glaring about the game is that unless you get dealt a strong hand, your returns are low, similar to 50 and 100 play vp.
Most experts say spin poker plays exactly like regular video poker with the same strategies. I completely disagree due to my experiences on the game. In normal spin poker where there are 9 pay lines, the middle position or #3 position has a higher value than any of the other positions. The reason for this is that 5 of the 9 paylines cross the #3 position while only 4 paylines cross the other positions. This makes the #3 position more valuable than the other positions on the deal. So what cards you hold off the deal should be altered by the position due to value. For the experts not to identify this is beyond me. I have played this game in certain forms such as DDB, TDB and DWB and have had some limited success with my own modified startegies. But overall I know no one who has been a big winner at this game. My brother is a spin poker fanatic and even with the use of my modified strategies his success has been limited. What is most glaring about the game is that unless you get dealt a strong hand, your returns are low, similar to 50 and 100 play vp.
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Eduardo
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 2963
- Joined: Thu Aug 31, 2006 7:19 pm
I think strategies are the same but variance is different.
Your expected return might be better with an ace in the middle but I think this affects all returns equally so the holds themselves don't change, just the possible return. I could be wrong on this. But that is what makes bigger swings like in 10 or 50 and 100 play like you say.
It would definitely be interesting to hear if any holds should really be different. I don't think so.
If you ignore the way the lines are displayed on the screen and stack them vertically like on a triple play game i think it would be easier to picture.
Even if more lines cross through the middle card, any card you hold will be held on all 9 lines. So really is it the discards to look at.
But looking at the discards what this means is that you could draw a card that will appear on more lines if it lands in the middle spot instead of top or bottom. But your odds of getting any card haven't really changed so I'm not sure your holds do.
Maybe that affects it some. I'll wait for someone with more knowledge on the game to respond though because these are just observations.
I'm sure the "swings" that you experience are very different in this game, but I'm not sure strategy is.
Your expected return might be better with an ace in the middle but I think this affects all returns equally so the holds themselves don't change, just the possible return. I could be wrong on this. But that is what makes bigger swings like in 10 or 50 and 100 play like you say.
It would definitely be interesting to hear if any holds should really be different. I don't think so.
If you ignore the way the lines are displayed on the screen and stack them vertically like on a triple play game i think it would be easier to picture.
Even if more lines cross through the middle card, any card you hold will be held on all 9 lines. So really is it the discards to look at.
But looking at the discards what this means is that you could draw a card that will appear on more lines if it lands in the middle spot instead of top or bottom. But your odds of getting any card haven't really changed so I'm not sure your holds do.
Maybe that affects it some. I'll wait for someone with more knowledge on the game to respond though because these are just observations.
I'm sure the "swings" that you experience are very different in this game, but I'm not sure strategy is.
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Lucky Larry
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 2693
- Joined: Sat Dec 13, 2008 7:35 pm
I just got killed playing Spin Poker, using basic JOB strategy and sticking to it. Some seem to love this game, but is it for the conservative player?
Idgie,
Like most VP-Spin Poker has given us some great play . Like being dealt 2's w/A on DWB and a Royal on Bonus. And, sometimes it has been a killer. Keep in mind that you are playing 45 coins per hand at max play. This means you really need to have a larger bankroll to play with or play at a lower denomination.
As far as strategy goes we have learned to play with a strategy similar to damule's. For example, somewhere I read that when playing deuces wild and being dealt two pair holding the pair in the 3rd slot is preferable. No mathematical evidence just remember reading that somewhere and it seems to have worked for us.
We often find that we will even start with 9 x 1 or 9 x 2 to set how the game is playing.
We also will play 5¢ or 10¢ versus 25¢ SP until we win a larger bankroll.
We also try to play games with low variance.
Anyway keep trying it as the more you play the truer picture of how it plays will emerge. Many of our friends love SP and prefer it.
Lucky Larry
Idgie,
Like most VP-Spin Poker has given us some great play . Like being dealt 2's w/A on DWB and a Royal on Bonus. And, sometimes it has been a killer. Keep in mind that you are playing 45 coins per hand at max play. This means you really need to have a larger bankroll to play with or play at a lower denomination.
As far as strategy goes we have learned to play with a strategy similar to damule's. For example, somewhere I read that when playing deuces wild and being dealt two pair holding the pair in the 3rd slot is preferable. No mathematical evidence just remember reading that somewhere and it seems to have worked for us.
We often find that we will even start with 9 x 1 or 9 x 2 to set how the game is playing.
We also will play 5¢ or 10¢ versus 25¢ SP until we win a larger bankroll.
We also try to play games with low variance.
Anyway keep trying it as the more you play the truer picture of how it plays will emerge. Many of our friends love SP and prefer it.
Lucky Larry
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New2vp
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 1852
- Joined: Mon Sep 11, 2006 4:02 am
In my opinion, the experts are right (if you only consider expected value in making your decisions), Eduardo is right in that the variance is lower if you hold the center card than if you do not--at least it is in the example below), and Lucky Larry is right (if you play both to maximize EV and also to minimize the variance when there are two or more holds that have the same EV).In regular spin poker with 9 lines, the number of lines that each cell is involved in is shown below:
3
3
2
3
3
3
3
5
3
3
3
3
2
3
3
It is true that the center cell in the center column is involved more often than the top and bottom cells in the center column OR any cell in the other columns. However it is instructive to note that when we draw cards to cover the cells, we will always receive cards in all the cells in a column or columns. And every Spin Poker pattern which forms a completed hand will get 1 cell from each of the 5 columns. Each column will cross all 9 lines.The following will not prove what I've stated but I think it helps to visualize what's happening on other holds. The easiest example I can think of is a 4-flush with no high cards. Consider being dealt Te8e5e2e 2`. There are two possibilities yo consider with this hand: Either the 2` is in the center column or one of the other columns.If we were playing single hand 9/6 Jacks or Better, most of us know there are only 9 scoring cards (the other hearts) and 38 non-scoring cards out of the remaining 47 cards in the deck. We get 30 coins if we make a flush and nothing otherwise, so our EV is (9 x 30 + 38 x 0) / 47 = 270/47 = 5.7447 coins.With spin poker, if we hold the 4 flush, we will draw 3 cards from the remaining 47 and we have 8 different things that can happen. We will (1) draw 3 flush cards, (2,3, & 4) draw 2 flush cards with the non-flush card either being in Row 1, Row 2, or Row 3, (5,6, & 7) draw 1 flush card with that flush card either being in Row 1, Row 2, or Row 3, OR (8) draw 0 flush cards.The different events are summarized below along with the probabilities of each happening ("F" means a flush card and "N" means not a flush card, as an example, the 2nd column, which is represented by F, F, N means that there were flush cards replaced in the top two rows and a non-flush card in the bottom row):
Row 1
F
F
F
N
F
N
N
N
Row 2
F
F
N
F
N
F
N
N
Row 3
F
N
F
F
N
N
F
N
Total Flush Cards
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
0
Probability
0.5180%
2.8122%
2.8122%
2.8122%
13.0065%
13.0065%
13.0065%
52.0259%
Win if center card missing
270
210
120
210
60
150
60
0
Win if any other card missing
270
180
180
180
90
90
90
0
To get the Expected Value of both lines, you have to multiply the probabilities by the values, then add them up. I'll just state what the probabilities without showing how I got them for the 8 possibilities, but note that they do add up to 100%. I've also shown the standard deviation without calculation depending on whether or not we were replacing cards in the center column. If you want the variance, just square the standard deviation.
EV
Standard Deviation
If center card missing
51.7021
66.7292
If any other card missing
51.7021
59.9882
The EV of 51.7021 is precisely 9 times the EV from single line Jacks or Better (5.7447).With any card but the center card missing, you can either get 0 flushes, 3 flushes, 6 or 9. If you draw only 1 flush card out of 3 in this case, you will get 3 flushes regardless of which row the flush card appears on.With the center card missing, there are more possibilities: 0 flushes, 2, 4, 5, 7, or 9. If you draw one flush card in this case, you will either get 5 flushes or 2 flushes depending on whether or not the flush card appears in the center row. But the average number of flushes you will get with 1 flush card is still 3 [(5 + 2 + 2) / 3 = 3].The calculation will end up with the same mean no matter what 5 cards you start with, but the variances will most likely be different.Now consider Lucky Larry's example and presume you are playing a deuces wild game where it is preferable to hold a single pair instead of both pairs. It's a lot more complicated than the previous example. In holding a pair you could get 5 possibilities in each row: either nothing, trips, a full house, quads or 5-trees on each row. This leads to many more possibilities than the 8 that I showed above. I'm not willing to explain that calculation here, but the principle remains the same: Replacing a card in the center column creates more possibilities than replacing cards in the other columns. This is because the center cell in that center column affects a different number of final hands than the other cells in that column. Thus, there is more variability when the center column is drawn to than when other columns are replaced. But since replaced cards in each column affect all 9 lines, the average value is the same regardless of which column is replaced.Straying from regular optimal single-line strategy maximizing EV will negatively affect spin-poker EV unless two holds have identical EVs in single-line play. If you have two holds with the same EV, leave the center column covered if you want to be conservative with smaller variance and leave it uncovered if you want to gamble more with larger variance.Of course for those who like to gamble a bit more on "close" holds that give up some EV, it's best to know that the riskiness will still be a bit higher if you discard from the center column.If this was complicated, you don't even want to consider understanding the situation with Spin Poker Deluxe with 20 lines per play. That grid has every column different than one another:
6
7
5
5
7
9
7
11
10
5
5
6
4
5
8
Again the center column has the most variability with the 2nd column from the left having the least variability. Column 4 is 2nd most variable, followed by column 1 and column 5.
3
3
2
3
3
3
3
5
3
3
3
3
2
3
3
It is true that the center cell in the center column is involved more often than the top and bottom cells in the center column OR any cell in the other columns. However it is instructive to note that when we draw cards to cover the cells, we will always receive cards in all the cells in a column or columns. And every Spin Poker pattern which forms a completed hand will get 1 cell from each of the 5 columns. Each column will cross all 9 lines.The following will not prove what I've stated but I think it helps to visualize what's happening on other holds. The easiest example I can think of is a 4-flush with no high cards. Consider being dealt Te8e5e2e 2`. There are two possibilities yo consider with this hand: Either the 2` is in the center column or one of the other columns.If we were playing single hand 9/6 Jacks or Better, most of us know there are only 9 scoring cards (the other hearts) and 38 non-scoring cards out of the remaining 47 cards in the deck. We get 30 coins if we make a flush and nothing otherwise, so our EV is (9 x 30 + 38 x 0) / 47 = 270/47 = 5.7447 coins.With spin poker, if we hold the 4 flush, we will draw 3 cards from the remaining 47 and we have 8 different things that can happen. We will (1) draw 3 flush cards, (2,3, & 4) draw 2 flush cards with the non-flush card either being in Row 1, Row 2, or Row 3, (5,6, & 7) draw 1 flush card with that flush card either being in Row 1, Row 2, or Row 3, OR (8) draw 0 flush cards.The different events are summarized below along with the probabilities of each happening ("F" means a flush card and "N" means not a flush card, as an example, the 2nd column, which is represented by F, F, N means that there were flush cards replaced in the top two rows and a non-flush card in the bottom row):
Row 1
F
F
F
N
F
N
N
N
Row 2
F
F
N
F
N
F
N
N
Row 3
F
N
F
F
N
N
F
N
Total Flush Cards
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
0
Probability
0.5180%
2.8122%
2.8122%
2.8122%
13.0065%
13.0065%
13.0065%
52.0259%
Win if center card missing
270
210
120
210
60
150
60
0
Win if any other card missing
270
180
180
180
90
90
90
0
To get the Expected Value of both lines, you have to multiply the probabilities by the values, then add them up. I'll just state what the probabilities without showing how I got them for the 8 possibilities, but note that they do add up to 100%. I've also shown the standard deviation without calculation depending on whether or not we were replacing cards in the center column. If you want the variance, just square the standard deviation.
EV
Standard Deviation
If center card missing
51.7021
66.7292
If any other card missing
51.7021
59.9882
The EV of 51.7021 is precisely 9 times the EV from single line Jacks or Better (5.7447).With any card but the center card missing, you can either get 0 flushes, 3 flushes, 6 or 9. If you draw only 1 flush card out of 3 in this case, you will get 3 flushes regardless of which row the flush card appears on.With the center card missing, there are more possibilities: 0 flushes, 2, 4, 5, 7, or 9. If you draw one flush card in this case, you will either get 5 flushes or 2 flushes depending on whether or not the flush card appears in the center row. But the average number of flushes you will get with 1 flush card is still 3 [(5 + 2 + 2) / 3 = 3].The calculation will end up with the same mean no matter what 5 cards you start with, but the variances will most likely be different.Now consider Lucky Larry's example and presume you are playing a deuces wild game where it is preferable to hold a single pair instead of both pairs. It's a lot more complicated than the previous example. In holding a pair you could get 5 possibilities in each row: either nothing, trips, a full house, quads or 5-trees on each row. This leads to many more possibilities than the 8 that I showed above. I'm not willing to explain that calculation here, but the principle remains the same: Replacing a card in the center column creates more possibilities than replacing cards in the other columns. This is because the center cell in that center column affects a different number of final hands than the other cells in that column. Thus, there is more variability when the center column is drawn to than when other columns are replaced. But since replaced cards in each column affect all 9 lines, the average value is the same regardless of which column is replaced.Straying from regular optimal single-line strategy maximizing EV will negatively affect spin-poker EV unless two holds have identical EVs in single-line play. If you have two holds with the same EV, leave the center column covered if you want to be conservative with smaller variance and leave it uncovered if you want to gamble more with larger variance.Of course for those who like to gamble a bit more on "close" holds that give up some EV, it's best to know that the riskiness will still be a bit higher if you discard from the center column.If this was complicated, you don't even want to consider understanding the situation with Spin Poker Deluxe with 20 lines per play. That grid has every column different than one another:
6
7
5
5
7
9
7
11
10
5
5
6
4
5
8
Again the center column has the most variability with the 2nd column from the left having the least variability. Column 4 is 2nd most variable, followed by column 1 and column 5.
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damule
- VP Veteran
- Posts: 551
- Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2008 4:59 pm
Great work new,
You're the 1st I've ever seen to put this game into mathematical form. I still will advocate playing this game they way I have by putting more value on the card dealt in the center row. Since we do not play an infinite number of hands I would side towards the lower variance here rather than the expected value due to my experiences with the game. Although you are definitely right mathematically and statistically there are in my opinon (I can't believe I'm using this term) "special plays" which beneifit the player in the short term here. Larry cited one example. Another would be when playing DDB to hold one high pair of (JJ, QQ, or KK) when dealt 2 high pairs and one pair has a card occupying the center column. An example would be J J Q 4 Q, hold the queens. When dealt J J 4 Q Q, hold the 2 pair.
You're the 1st I've ever seen to put this game into mathematical form. I still will advocate playing this game they way I have by putting more value on the card dealt in the center row. Since we do not play an infinite number of hands I would side towards the lower variance here rather than the expected value due to my experiences with the game. Although you are definitely right mathematically and statistically there are in my opinon (I can't believe I'm using this term) "special plays" which beneifit the player in the short term here. Larry cited one example. Another would be when playing DDB to hold one high pair of (JJ, QQ, or KK) when dealt 2 high pairs and one pair has a card occupying the center column. An example would be J J Q 4 Q, hold the queens. When dealt J J 4 Q Q, hold the 2 pair.
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Idgie
- Forum Newbie
- Posts: 5
- Joined: Tue Dec 29, 2009 1:33 am
Wow! I'm definitely in the right place. You guys really know your stuff. I'll play around with SP and give it another chance. Thanks!
