What do you think of this theory?

[Dynomite]

I throw this question out to everyone.  I have been given the advice to always play machines with new VP games because the casino is promoting a new product, and for a relatively short while, the payouts will be generous.  The theory goes that the higher payouts will generate interest and kickstart the new product.  I recently followed this advice and I did receive a nice payout ($500.00) right off the bat.



Do you believe there is anything to this theory? or was it just coincidence?                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

[BOOPSAHOY]

It certainly EEMS that way at times-I know my husband and I always comment on how when we play a new machine for the first time (slots more than VP) we always do well and then the niext trip nothing. I tend to think its just selective memory becasue its so expensive to change the chips in the machine.

[shadowman]

It could be true with slots. Probably depends on the casino. For VP the return is always based on the pay table and they are required by law to be random, so there are never any surprises. 

[Dynomite]

Hypothetically, can the payout probability programmed into a new VP machine be higher than an old machine?  With this scenario, the random nature and the overall integrity of the machine would not be messed with -- -- it would just pay better.  Plausible?

[shadowman]

The only legal way to change the return on standard Class III VP machines is to change the pay table. That IS the way the payout is programmed into the machines.

[faygo]

My vote coincidence.  People observing what they believe to be a higher payout usually don't take into account the increased number of people playing just because it is a new game.
There are enough theories out there to fill a book shelf.

[Dynomite]

Of course, but you may be missing my point. As we know, a pay table is merely a list of payouts laying out combinations, amounts of coins, symbols etc.. Different VP machines with the same exact games will often differ in the frequency of how they want to payout for a given hand. It's not as if me and a dealer were playing poker with a real deck of 52 cards.  There are still computer programmers who do their thing with these machines.
 
Anyhow, in going back to my theory, it's only a theory and I value everyone's opinions. Thanks!

[Dynomite]

Interesting Faygo. So you are saying that the more players the better on a VP machine?  This, in effect, loosens up the machine?

[damule]

Dyno,
 
I think you're missing the point completely. The answer to your initial question when related to class III video poker machines is definitive "NO". Class III video poker machines (the ones found in Nevada and the majority of the country) are programmed one way: to randomly generate results based precisely on the statistically probabilty of the pay table displayed on the screen of the game being played. No more, no less.
 
It has nothing to do with computer programmers increasing the number of jackpots or newer machines being played more and becoming "looser". This may be true on slot machines as shadowman stated, but not with video poker. I think it has more to do with perception than anything else. The more a machine is played (probably what is true of newer machines/games), the more jackpots that will be hit. It's just more opportunities, not a greater percentage of occurances.

[Dynomite]

Damule, you seem to be making a distinction without a difference. If you don't like the term "looser" that's all fine and well. 
 
In addition, with you and Shadow, there seems to be a lot of blind faith in the regulating authorities going on around here. Securities firms are not supposed to issue derivatives that are worthless BUT THEY DO -- sometimes. Boards of Elections are not supposed to look the other way when frauds are perpetrated BUT THEY DO -- sometimes.  Look at the Texas Athletic Comission. They recently cleared Margarito to fight Pacquiao even though Margarito was the guy caught redhanded with a plaster-of- paris like substance in his gloves which could have literally killed a couple of his prior opponents.  There's the world as it should be and then there's the world as it is and it's probably a good bet that the world of "legal" gambling plays it fast and loose with slots & VP's every now and again.  When there is money involved people resort to a brutish state of nature.