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It's an ill wind that blows no good, and our smart friend Mr. Fa La La La La.... La la la la makes a valid point when he rails against promotions and such that offer the player a fraction more expected value "but unfortunately I didn't hit it."
Two calculations are at work here: the additional expected value and the amount of play/cash in/time on the machine to have a reasonable chance of realizing it. Also, there's another consideration: most of the games with promotions, progressives and the like have what Professor Canjar calls a lower "underlying game" value, that is, a lower expected return when the "jackpot" is not included. For example, a progressive JB machine or one that awards a new car for a Royal may be set at 8/5 or even lower versus 9/6 for "full pay" JB.
Maybe someone who has invested in VP for Winners can tell us whether the "short roll" calculator works as advertised. But even calculating by hand, you have to take into consideration the probability that you will play long enough to get the extra EV from any promotion.
Re: Promotions, etc.
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shadowman
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 3587
- Joined: Mon Oct 23, 2006 5:42 pm
You make a very good point. Promotions are put in for a reason. To make money for the casino. In and of themselves they should never be a reason to gamble.
However, the astute VP player can often take advantage of promotions to increase his/her return. Look for promotions where you can still play the best games. This is often the case with drawings and promotions based on points. My wife has won a $2000 drawing and I have won several smaller drawings over the years. However, if the best machines are disallowed in a promotion then I skip the promotion every time.
It is possible to compute the EV for promotions. You may need to make some assumptions about your actual chances of winning but it's usually not too difficult to get close.
However, the astute VP player can often take advantage of promotions to increase his/her return. Look for promotions where you can still play the best games. This is often the case with drawings and promotions based on points. My wife has won a $2000 drawing and I have won several smaller drawings over the years. However, if the best machines are disallowed in a promotion then I skip the promotion every time.
It is possible to compute the EV for promotions. You may need to make some assumptions about your actual chances of winning but it's usually not too difficult to get close.
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njmike37
- Senior Member
- Posts: 158
- Joined: Wed Nov 15, 2006 12:51 pm
However, the astute VP player can often take advantage of promotions to increase his/her return. Look for promotions where you can still play the best games. This is often the case with drawings and promotions based on points. My wife has won a $2000 drawing and I have won several smaller drawings over the years. However, if the best machines are disallowed in a promotion then I skip the promotion every time.
That is very true. If I am debating on which day to take a trip to Taj to play VP, I'll look at the promotions that are offered on my possible trip days. Today, for example, they are running triple cashback (which includes VP play) so it is to my advantage to play on a day like today versus yesterday in which they had regular cashback.
But, Shadowman is also right in that you shouldn't gamble just because of the promotions. You're there to make money, not spend more to get whatever it is they are giving away.
I don't change my playing style based on promotions. If I'm getting 3X cashback like today, I'll still play as if I had no promotional offer at all. Then I can reap the benefits of the promotion the way it should be.
Mike
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babybubba
- Senior Member
- Posts: 291
- Joined: Fri Apr 20, 2007 9:18 pm
[QUOTE=shadowman]
However, the astute VP player can often take advantage of promotions to increase his/her return. Look for promotions where you can still play the best games. This is often the case with drawings and promotions based on points. My wife has won a $2000 drawing and I have won several smaller drawings over the years. However, if the best machines are disallowed in a promotion then I skip the promotion every time.
That is very true. If I am debating on which day to take a trip to Taj to play VP, I'll look at the promotions that are offered on my possible trip days. Today, for example, they are running triple cashback (which includes VP play) so it is to my advantage to play on a day like today versus yesterday in which they had regular cashback.
But, Shadowman is also right in that you shouldn't gamble just because of the promotions. You're there to make money, not spend more to get whatever it is they are giving away.
I don't change my playing style based on promotions. If I'm getting 3X cashback like today, I'll still play as if I had no promotional offer at all. Then I can reap the benefits of the promotion the way it should be.
Mike[/QUOTE]
If everybody actually believed in these words and followed them to the letter, there'd be no promotions. Casinos make MUCH more profit from their promotions than at any other times regardless of what they're "giving away for free". The main problem is most every player gets suckered into these promos and the "advantage players" are the worst culprits, mainly because they're always able to "create" a +EV play out of them. That's where all logic flies out the window. We see statements like "you shouldn't gamble just for the promotion" but that is, in fact, what every AP actually does. If that person knows the casinos are making more money during the event then why on earth would they bother playing into the casino's hands? Answer: Habit, addiction to the slot club card, and the thrill of knowing you're accumulating points/gifts/comps/free-play at an increased rate. The one true reason for gambling is simply tossed aside because of these chaep thrills. And when the AP gambler begins to add EV into drawings and giveaways that alters long-term expectation into "positive territory" for that one puny session, pathological problems are exhibited at an alarming rate.
However, the astute VP player can often take advantage of promotions to increase his/her return. Look for promotions where you can still play the best games. This is often the case with drawings and promotions based on points. My wife has won a $2000 drawing and I have won several smaller drawings over the years. However, if the best machines are disallowed in a promotion then I skip the promotion every time.
That is very true. If I am debating on which day to take a trip to Taj to play VP, I'll look at the promotions that are offered on my possible trip days. Today, for example, they are running triple cashback (which includes VP play) so it is to my advantage to play on a day like today versus yesterday in which they had regular cashback.
But, Shadowman is also right in that you shouldn't gamble just because of the promotions. You're there to make money, not spend more to get whatever it is they are giving away.
I don't change my playing style based on promotions. If I'm getting 3X cashback like today, I'll still play as if I had no promotional offer at all. Then I can reap the benefits of the promotion the way it should be.
Mike[/QUOTE]
If everybody actually believed in these words and followed them to the letter, there'd be no promotions. Casinos make MUCH more profit from their promotions than at any other times regardless of what they're "giving away for free". The main problem is most every player gets suckered into these promos and the "advantage players" are the worst culprits, mainly because they're always able to "create" a +EV play out of them. That's where all logic flies out the window. We see statements like "you shouldn't gamble just for the promotion" but that is, in fact, what every AP actually does. If that person knows the casinos are making more money during the event then why on earth would they bother playing into the casino's hands? Answer: Habit, addiction to the slot club card, and the thrill of knowing you're accumulating points/gifts/comps/free-play at an increased rate. The one true reason for gambling is simply tossed aside because of these chaep thrills. And when the AP gambler begins to add EV into drawings and giveaways that alters long-term expectation into "positive territory" for that one puny session, pathological problems are exhibited at an alarming rate.
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shadowman
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 3587
- Joined: Mon Oct 23, 2006 5:42 pm
The main problem is most every player gets suckered into these promos and the "advantage players" are the worst culprits, mainly because they're always able to "create" a +EV play out of them. That's where all logic flies out the window. We see statements like "you shouldn't gamble just for the promotion" but that is, in fact, what every AP actually does.
Here we go. Rob is back making unfounded and obviously incorrect assertions. Note his use of "always" and "every" above. Just how often does "every" gambler do anything the same? Totally ridiculous.
Rob, if you want to contribute, at least try to say something that makes sense.
Here we go. Rob is back making unfounded and obviously incorrect assertions. Note his use of "always" and "every" above. Just how often does "every" gambler do anything the same? Totally ridiculous.
Rob, if you want to contribute, at least try to say something that makes sense.
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babybubba
- Senior Member
- Posts: 291
- Joined: Fri Apr 20, 2007 9:18 pm
[QUOTE=babybubba] The main problem is most every player gets suckered into these promos and the "advantage players" are the worst culprits, mainly because they're always able to "create" a +EV play out of them. That's where all logic flies out the window. We see statements like "you shouldn't gamble just for the promotion" but that is, in fact, what every AP actually does.
Here we go. Rob is back making unfounded and obviously incorrect assertions. Note his use of "always" and "every" above. Just how often does "every" gambler do anything the same? Totally ridiculous.
Rob, if you want to contribute, at least try to say something that makes sense.
[/QUOTE]
Perhaps you should try to refute anyt point I was making rather than confirming your own pathological addiction to playing video poker. You've already been embarrassed by being exposed as a regular at an "INDIAN" casino. Please tell us: What's the rationale behind humiliating yourself by disputing "THE UNDENIABLE TRUTH" without any supporting information??
Here we go. Rob is back making unfounded and obviously incorrect assertions. Note his use of "always" and "every" above. Just how often does "every" gambler do anything the same? Totally ridiculous.
Rob, if you want to contribute, at least try to say something that makes sense.
[/QUOTE]
Perhaps you should try to refute anyt point I was making rather than confirming your own pathological addiction to playing video poker. You've already been embarrassed by being exposed as a regular at an "INDIAN" casino. Please tell us: What's the rationale behind humiliating yourself by disputing "THE UNDENIABLE TRUTH" without any supporting information??
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shadowman
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 3587
- Joined: Mon Oct 23, 2006 5:42 pm
Perhaps you should try to refute anyt point I was making rather than confirming your own pathological addiction to playing video poker. You've already been embarrassed by being exposed as a regular at an "INDIAN" casino. Please tell us: What's the rationale behind humiliating yourself by disputing "THE UNDENIABLE TRUTH" without any supporting information??
You're kidding, right? You really are this slow??
You already had TWO APers state they did not go to "every" promotion and neither should anyone else. Your "point" was refuted before you even tried to make it.
Boy, talk about "humiliating yourself". You just did it in spades.
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babybubba
- Senior Member
- Posts: 291
- Joined: Fri Apr 20, 2007 9:18 pm
[QUOTE=babybubba]
Perhaps you should try to refute anyt point I was making rather than confirming your own pathological addiction to playing video poker. You've already been embarrassed by being exposed as a regular at an "INDIAN" casino. Please tell us: What's the rationale behind humiliating yourself by disputing "THE UNDENIABLE TRUTH" without any supporting information??
You're kidding, right? You really are this slow??
You already had TWO APers state they did not go to "every" promotion and neither should anyone else. Your "point" was refuted before you even tried to make it.
Boy, talk about "humiliating yourself". You just did it in spades. [/QUOTE]
Really? And just who is it that goes to "every" promotion?? Where does your assertion fit in here other than along with that foot you just put in your mouth, again I'd say you went to bed at the right time. There can only be so much embarrassment a Mn. recluse can take!
Perhaps you should try to refute anyt point I was making rather than confirming your own pathological addiction to playing video poker. You've already been embarrassed by being exposed as a regular at an "INDIAN" casino. Please tell us: What's the rationale behind humiliating yourself by disputing "THE UNDENIABLE TRUTH" without any supporting information??
You're kidding, right? You really are this slow??
You already had TWO APers state they did not go to "every" promotion and neither should anyone else. Your "point" was refuted before you even tried to make it.
Boy, talk about "humiliating yourself". You just did it in spades. [/QUOTE]
Really? And just who is it that goes to "every" promotion?? Where does your assertion fit in here other than along with that foot you just put in your mouth, again I'd say you went to bed at the right time. There can only be so much embarrassment a Mn. recluse can take!
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Minn. Fatz
- VP Veteran
- Posts: 524
- Joined: Mon May 07, 2007 12:22 am
To use a South Park metaphor, maybe VP promotions are like farting. If you never fart at all you risk spontaneous combustion; if you fart all the time it gets old (not to mention smelly); ergo, you should go ahead and fart sometimes, but only when it's funny.
Similary, it's not wise to never play a VP promotion for fear the casinos simply have to have the edge on all of them (and there are some cases in the literature that demonstrate VP managers put on their pants one leg at a time just like VP players do); neither is it wise to always play every VP promotion from a certainty that you are the one that's going to hit it.
The wise course is to play VP promotions sometimes, but only when you have a reasonable chance of realizing the theoretical advantage they provide: the definition of "reasonable" being somewhat up to the individual VP player.
I'd sure be interested in a discussion of those issues if only you two could stop your interminable bloody bickering.
Similary, it's not wise to never play a VP promotion for fear the casinos simply have to have the edge on all of them (and there are some cases in the literature that demonstrate VP managers put on their pants one leg at a time just like VP players do); neither is it wise to always play every VP promotion from a certainty that you are the one that's going to hit it.
The wise course is to play VP promotions sometimes, but only when you have a reasonable chance of realizing the theoretical advantage they provide: the definition of "reasonable" being somewhat up to the individual VP player.
I'd sure be interested in a discussion of those issues if only you two could stop your interminable bloody bickering.
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shadowman
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 3587
- Joined: Mon Oct 23, 2006 5:42 pm
Really?
Really!
And just who is it that goes to "every" promotion??
No one goes to "every" promotion. That is what made your statement so ridiculous and so funny.
As was stated previous to your lame response, promotions need to be examined individually to determine their worth. Some promotions are easy. I get double points for playing in a BJ tournament. The value of those points are worth more than the BJ tournament entry. This past week another APer who does the same thing won the tournament for almost $1500. It's called a no-brainer.
Gambling on multiple point days when you have a choice is also a no-brainer. Showing up for drawings is also reasonable when you're playing full pay games during the drawing. Personally, I avoid some drawings when it is very, very crowded. I prefer not to go at those times. These decisions should also take in account personal likes and dislikes as I just mentioned.
I've seen promotions that payoff for the highest point gatherers during a specific time period. I usually avoid these promotions since I don't play extremely high denoms. I would never play poor games or gamble more than I like for this kind of promotion. However, I know a couple where this kind of promotion is very lucrative. The best approach is not the same for everyone.
Really!
And just who is it that goes to "every" promotion??
No one goes to "every" promotion. That is what made your statement so ridiculous and so funny.
As was stated previous to your lame response, promotions need to be examined individually to determine their worth. Some promotions are easy. I get double points for playing in a BJ tournament. The value of those points are worth more than the BJ tournament entry. This past week another APer who does the same thing won the tournament for almost $1500. It's called a no-brainer.
Gambling on multiple point days when you have a choice is also a no-brainer. Showing up for drawings is also reasonable when you're playing full pay games during the drawing. Personally, I avoid some drawings when it is very, very crowded. I prefer not to go at those times. These decisions should also take in account personal likes and dislikes as I just mentioned.
I've seen promotions that payoff for the highest point gatherers during a specific time period. I usually avoid these promotions since I don't play extremely high denoms. I would never play poor games or gamble more than I like for this kind of promotion. However, I know a couple where this kind of promotion is very lucrative. The best approach is not the same for everyone.
