Not hitting 4 to a flush ever... what are the odds

[Eduardo]

Was playing DDB triple play on this site this morning and 7 or 8 times had 4 to a flush and did not hit it even once. That is 21 or 28 hands. What are odds of that happening! Do people miss on this a lot?

[Benford's Law]

Eduardo,      Yeah, that's pretty bad....lots of people might switch machines in a casino after that....could you try playing on a different computer, perhaps?        You have a 19.14% chance of making a flush draw (80.85% chance of missing it), so the chance of missing 21 flush draws in a row is (80.85^21) = 1.15% of all sets of 21 flush drawsmissing 24 draws (80.85^24) = 0.6% of all sets of 24 flush draws~Benford's Law

[chuck arl]

it almost makes one want to draw 5 new cards after those results.---CWA---

[4queens]

I calculate the odds of drawing the fifth card for the flush at 18.75%.  You have 4 suited cards leaving 9 of the 48 remaining cards to fill the flush 9/48=.1875 or 18.75% chance of drawing one of the 9.

[Eduardo]

4queens you are right if you include odds of getting the flush on the deal also. But if you are holding 4, that means you are throwing one away and only have 47 cards left (one non suit) instead of 48. So odds are 4/47 instead of 4/48. So I think Benford was right also.  You are BOTH right! And I was wrong when thinking of it because I was thinking I had 1/4 chance on each one! Forgot that some of the suit cards were already used up in my hand. 

[MikeA]

9/47=.19% or about 1 in every 5.22 hands for drawing 1 card to fill in a 4-card-flush.  Sure seems that it doesn't hit that often though 

[faygo]

9/47=.19% or about 1 in every 5.22 hands for drawing 1 card to fill in a 4-card-flush.  Sure seems that it doesn't hit that often though 
 
I have always felt that the flush draw is the most important one in DDB. (Or for that matter any VP game where a flush returns 10 or more.)  FH's come along just fine, but if you don't complete the flush draws...Bye,Bye bankroll.
Caveat: I could be all wet.
 

[MikeA]

 
I have always felt that the flush draw is the most important one in DDB. (Or for that matter any VP game where a flush returns 10 or more.)  FH's come along just fine, but if you don't complete the flush draws...Bye,Bye bankroll.
Caveat: I could be all wet.
Did you have a typo there Faygo?  Did you mean 30 for a Flush (5-coin?)  That would be a 10/6 game (full-pay).   I do agree pretty much though.  It is flushes and full houses that keep you in the game while you are searching for that monster quad!

[faygo]

[QUOTE=faygo] 
I have always felt that the flush draw is the most important one in DDB. (Or for that matter any VP game where a flush returns 10 or more.)  FH's come along just fine, but if you don't complete the flush draws...Bye,Bye bankroll.
Caveat: I could be all wet.


Did you have a typo there Faygo?  Did you mean 30 for a Flush (5-coin?)  That would be a 10/6 game (full-pay).   I do agree pretty much though.  It is flushes and full houses that keep you in the game while you are searching for that monster quad!
[/QUOTE]
 
 I was including some versions of Deuces Wild Mike.
 
Mike T.
 
 
 
 

[MikeA]

 
 I was including some versions of Deuces Wild Mike.
 
Mike T.
 I always forget about the "Wild" games.  I haven't added any of them to my arsenal yet.  One game at a time for a simple minded old fart.  JOB, then DDB and now DB.  I'll get there though if I live long enough