VP questions

[slewed]

After reading some of the posts, I have a question or two of my own....
 
I play DDB a few time's a week.... I take 300.00 to lose at each session, usually lasting maybe 2 hours....  If I double it, I quit.... If I triple it, I will go from the 50 cent machine to dollars until I'm back to 600.00..
 
My question is,
  If each hand is random, how can they place a set percentage of payoff's... 99.9% payoff...? Unless you sit there and watch the machine itself for a few days, how can you expect to make money...?  Other than the factor of picking a '' lucky machine ''...?  A lucky machine being one that is simply ''ready'' to balance the calculated payoff.....
 
Also, if your dealt 3 card's to a RF with a pair of aces, do you hold the pair or go for the royal.....?   I've noticed, if I'm dealt 3 of a kind and don't get the 4th, the card will pop up the next hand... When this happens, it is like the kiss of death for that machine....  Also, if I get 4 to a royal, that also seems to be another kiss of death...... Being dealt 3 aces and not getting the fourth usually means that whatever credit's are left in the machine will be eaten up quickly......
 
Do you need to just abandon all reasoning at some sessions... Keep switching machine's until it's time to leave...?

[MikeA]

You may be confusing "payoff" in conjunction with VP with "payoff" in respect to slot machines.  The two are not the same.  Slots are internally biased to a specific long term payoff by the software.  However, even these machines do not constantly keep track of how much they have paid out and adjust that bias.  The bias will cause that payoff naturally over a period of time.VP machine "payoff" is controlled by variations in the pay tables that are prominently displayed on each machine.  These pay tables make the calculation for "payoff" independently of internal programming.  Over long term play, a pay table that is set so that it's calculated "payoff" of 99.9% will be realized simply because of the laws of probability.If it makes you feel better to change machines, then by all means go ahead and change, but it will really not make any difference in the probability that it will really change any of your luck.  It would just be superstition.By the same token, if leaving with a certain amount in the win column (or loss column for that matter) leaves you with a warm fuzzy, that's great.  But what's to indicate that if you've won $600 that you might not go ahead and double that were you to continue playing?  It's strictly a matter of comfort for you.  Why?  Because if you leave and come back next week or next year and play again, it is no different than if you never stopped playing.After reading some of the posts, I have a question or two of my own....
 
I play DDB a few time's a week.... I take 300.00 to lose at each session, usually lasting maybe 2 hours....  If I double it, I quit.... If I triple it, I will go from the 50 cent machine to dollars until I'm back to 600.00..
 
My question is,
  If each hand is random, how can they place a set percentage of payoff's... 99.9% payoff...? Unless you sit there and watch the machine itself for a few days, how can you expect to make money...?  Other than the factor of picking a '' lucky machine ''...?  A lucky machine being one that is simply ''ready'' to balance the calculated payoff.....
 
Also, if your dealt 3 card's to a RF with a pair of aces, do you hold the pair or go for the royal.....?   I've noticed, if I'm dealt 3 of a kind and don't get the 4th, the card will pop up the next hand... When this happens, it is like the kiss of death for that machine....  Also, if I get 4 to a royal, that also seems to be another kiss of death...... Being dealt 3 aces and not getting the fourth usually means that whatever credit's are left in the machine will be eaten up quickly......
 
Do you need to just abandon all reasoning at some sessions... Keep switching machine's until it's time to leave...?

[slewed]

Thank you for the reply MikeA....
 
I understand the probabilities of gambling to some extent... For example, when red come's up 15 times in a row in Roulette, the probability of red coming up a 16th time is the same as if black were to come ...... That's using the number's game.....
 
It simply feels like there is some unexplained intangible with VP... In the long run, I don't think anyone beat's the game... Some maybe close, but meals and deals which go along with the payback are it's only advantage... Which we eventually end up paying for in the long run....

[MikeA]

Here is a table of probabilities by hand for 9/6 JOB.  Note that the probability of making a "no win" hand is over 50%.  Keeping in mind that the next most common hand is a high pair paying 5-credits for a "push" or "tie", that makes 76% (rounded) of the time, you are not going to win anything.  That means less than 1/4 of the hands that you  play will be winners.  Therein lies what so many players ignore.  On the average, winning only 1 out of every 4 hands can make for a lot of accumulated losing sessions.  In Video Poker, even in Jacks or Better which has about the lowest Variance of all of them, you will bounce back after losing several sessions by hitting one of the larger hands (Quads or a Straight Flush or a Royal).  We (or most of us) have selective memory when it comes to VP.  We tend to remember all of those loses rather than the much fewer wins.  But if you added the wins up over a period of time, you would very likely see that you were losing just less than one half of one percent of your coin-in on this JOB game!Setting personal "expectations" is crucial if you plan to get your share of enjoyment out of the game!  Be prepared for the losing sessions and take comfort in the probability that you are going to offset those with some good wins!




Analyze Jacks or Better














Game Return
99.544 %






Standard Dev
4.4175






Variance
19.5147















Pay
Frequency
%Probability
Occurs Every
% Return










Royal Flush
4000
64.34575
0.002
40,390.55
1.98


Straight Flush
250
284.08995
0.011
9,148.37
0.55


4 of a KIND
125
6140.16174
0.236
423.27
5.91


Full House
45
29919.76638
1.151
86.86
10.36


Flush
30
28626.27343
1.101
90.79
6.61


Straight
20
29184.67629
1.123
89.05
4.49


3 of a KIND
15
193489.18964
7.445
13.43
22.33


2 Pair
10
335990.69639
12.928
7.74
25.86


Jacks or Better
5
557697.91249
21.459
4.66
21.46


No Win
0
1417562.88795
54.543
1.83
0










Video
Poker for Winners Copyright 2006,2007, Action Gaming Inc.


 

[royal flush]

you are correct even in fp deuces with perfect play the royal and 4 deuces consume over 6% of the payoff so with 100.76-6%+ you will be negative 5%+ without a royal or 4 wild cards causing a losing session. However in vp and life it is one continous session the "running scorecard prevails"

[shadowman]

It simply feels like there is some unexplained intangible with VP... In the long run, I don't think anyone beat's the game... Some maybe close, but meals and deals which go along with the payback are it's only advantage... Which we eventually end up paying for in the long run....
 
There are many VP games that pay well over 100%. Full Pay Deuces is one of the best as rf pointed out. I understand your "feeling" that something is different with VP. I think every new player gets the same feeling. We have little experience with random events in the VP sense. Most people don't understand that even playing a 100% game can lead to losses over thousands, if not millions of hands. It can also lead to bigger than average wins as well.
 
Since most VP games are "barely" positive (like 10/6 DDB), it is unlikely you will win any amount of money without being lucky. However, there are games that when combined with cashback, coupons and promotions can exceed a 2% edge. That's what I look for and what I play most often. Doing this has created profits for me each year. So, yes, you can win at VP if you manage it properly.

[njmike37]

Since most VP games are "barely" positive (like 10/6 DDB), it is unlikely you will win any amount of money without being lucky. However, there are games that when combined with cashback, coupons and promotions can exceed a 2% edge. That's what I look for and what I play most often. Doing this has created profits for me each year. So, yes, you can win at VP if you manage it properly.
 
Exactly.  My session 2 days ago is a good example of this.  My fiance and I played for nearly 8 hours.  I had a few decent hits, but she never really got going.  She did hit a few str8 flushes in Joker Poker trying to chase the quarter single-hand progressive (5 of a kind jackpot) which was up to an amazing $1800!  I've never seen the progressive in Joker Poker get that high!  It's not often you see AC Joker Poker being a positive expectation game, but it sure was at that point! 
 
Anyway, I played Spin Poker (Joker version in AC w/ 5oak jackpot) and was dealt 4 deuces.  I landed the joker and got 3 separate lines of 5oak's for a sweet $600 win.  (My thanks to some of the posters talking about Spin Poker recently which got me the urge to play it.. LOL!) Gave Susanne (my fiance) $200 of it, and then went to play some single line games.
 
I ended up playing triple bonus and hit quad aces for $300 (although I had put in a good $100 before I hit them..) She was still not doing well at the progressive, so I gave her some more money. 
 
I tried my luck at hitting the Joker Poker progressive with no luck, dropping probably $150 myself.  We went to dinner on the comps we earned while playing, then played some more after dinner.  The progressive was hit at that point, so we played some DDB and hit a few quads each. 
 
We both played a little STP as well, but not too much.  I had the potential to win big, but it was a bust.  Was dealt 4 to a royal on a 3X multiplier in 5-hand play, but the machine was not being kind and didn't connect on anything...  
 
All in all, between us, we only left $35 ahead.. not exactly riches, but for 8 hours of play, not too bad! 
 
However, I checked my food comps this morning to see how much I earned, and I got about $75 still remaining from this trip alone (This will come in handy on my big trip next Monday-Thursday..) plus another $200 from previous trips.  Then I checked online to see how much cashback I earned.. $154!  Nice!  Susanne uses my card (which is one of the reasons I moved up into Maharajah Club in the 1st place..) so all of our food and cash goes into one account. 
 
So if you take into account the dinner we ate for free ($53), the $75 in food we still made from this trip, and the $154 we earned in cashback, that $35 we left ahead becomes    $317.  A nice little swing in the positive direction if you ask me! 
 
Mike

[shadowman]

Yes, I'd say was very nice. Another example along those lines. My wife and I played during a promotion this past week where we got 4x points for CB as well as some other coupons and food. She won $400 and I lost $535 but we earned nearly $90 in CB (x4 = $360). The coupons were worth $40 and we stayed overnight and had two free meals worth around $90. Altogether a gambling loss of $135 but a net win of over $300.
 
If a person can manage these kinds of added values into their gambling equation then coming out ahead becomes much easier. 

[royal flush]

you put Jean Scott's teachings to fine work

[MikeA]

you put Jean Scott's teachings to fine workI'm gonna hafta git me some of them thar books.  Right now, my play is so low that it doesn't get on the radar other than for the room offers in the mail.  Most of that is from old Blackjack play.  We get most of our comps through my wife's slot play.  I feel that we are doing good if we lose only that which is offset by the value of the rooms and food.  Quite honestly, my play more often than not shows up in the black.  Not by much, but enough to provide inexpensive entertainment!