Learning When to Walk Away

[FloridaPhil]

One reoccurring theme among video poker players is the problem of not knowing when to leave the casino. If you're  a professional and you believe your edge will eventually turn your fortunes around, you never have this problem.  Recreational players face this problem all the time.  I realized a long time ago that I had a strategy for everything, but didn't have a fixed strategy for when to quit for the day.  I knew how I was going to get to the casino and how I was going to play, but I didn't have a clue when or under what circumstances I was going to leave.I really didn't know what I was looking for.  Was I waiting for a big hit so I could walk out happy?  If so, what was a big hit?  Was $500 enough? How about $1,000 or $4,000? I never seemed to be happy, so I played until all my gambling money was gone and then I spent my lunch money too. It always ended with me walking out of the casino in full depression mode more often than I care to admit.I finally came to the conclusion that I needed to create a fixed well defined strategy for leaving.  As it turned out, it proved more important than my strategy for playing.  I won't go over my strategy in detail because I've done it many times before, but it involves defining a win as coming home with some of my money. My point is you need to decide ahead of time what your personal walk away strategy is going to be then work hard on making it work.  This is the key to playing lots of video poker and enjoying yourself.  

[Mr.Dawes]

This is an issue that I used to wrestle with quite a bit. I tried to come up with a percentage of my bankroll up or down that would trigger me to leave. Sometimes this worked but not often. My nearest casino is almost a 2 hour drive. One trip I hit 4 Aces in the first 20 minutes I was there and I went home. 4 hours of driving for 20 minutes of play. My approach changed when I finally came to accept the game for what it is. As a quarter player who only gets to play once or twice a month I won't get rich or go bankrupt. And I know that the game will always produce winning days, losing days and some break even days. Since I play only as a form of entertainment my approach is now based solely on how I feel when I am there. I keep playing until I don't want to be there. When I get tired of sitting on those uncomfortable bar stools, or the chain smoker that passed 5 empty machines to sit next to me, or I would just prefer to do something else with the rest of my day I leave. I am aware this approach would be more difficult if you were staying at a casino for several days. Like you mentioned in your killing time thread it can be difficult to find other things to do in a casino.

[alpax]

Many people who play at the casino will never accept this fact, and it personally took myself a while to understand it too, but the Wizard of Odds (M. Shackleford) has proven money management systems for the day's visit to the casino is irrelevant if a person plans on playing a negative expectation game for the long haul. Bob Dancer also instills this time to time on these forums. All the games will have its ups and downs, a repeat visit will just continue on that trend that eventually favors the casino. Some days people will go to a casino and right from the start be on a downward slump and lose bankroll their immediately, a money management system from the previous visit will not prevent that from happening.

With all that in mind, the way I put my play sessions in perspective is to set a theoretical loss percentage based on the fact you will not likely hit a royal flush that visit.

I do not play Bonus Poker, but here is an example.

99.166% (optimal play return) - 1.9884% (royal flush payout return) = 97.1776% (expected return without a royal flush payout). The loss percentage is 2.82%.

Set a theoretical average amount you can afford to lose. Lets say $100. $100 / 0.0282 = $3542 coin in of 8/5 Bonus Poker will equate to a trip of a $100 loss. I would play about 2800 quarter max bet hands, and accept the actual loss to be radically different.

A good trip at the casino (or today's score) will probably mean the next visit will be in a few weeks. A terrible trip would mean a month or more break off for myself.

[notes1]

My approach changed when I finally came to accept the game for what it is. As a quarter player who only gets to play once or twice a month I won't get rich or go bankrupt. And I know that the game will always produce winning days, losing days and some break even days. Since I play only as a form of entertainment my approach is now based solely on how I feel when I am there. I keep playing until I don't want to be there. 


 every player's situation is different, but your outlook is exactly as i feel. i have respect for someone who drives home a winner, after only 20 minutes of play, but each players circumstances are different. some folks are willing to sit in an airport for an extra 8 hours, to get a free ticket on an overbooked plane, some feel it is not worth it.  like you i need to drive a long way to go play, this also stops me from going too often. if it was a 10 minute drive, i would certainly take the win and play another day.

[notes1]

the math folks may be right, but i do not accept that VP play is one long continous event. i feel the same about the stats that say that playing multiple machines is exactly the same as playing one machine.  i do not accept that the short time i spend in a casino or the even shorter time i spend on any machine translates into the long term expected results. i consider each visit and each machine a seperate event. this my opinion and not an effort to convince anyone else.

[FloridaPhil]

I am also a two hour hour drive to my closest casino.  Not counting road trips, I play one full day a week and this gives me some challenges.   I love to pay the game and don't ever want to go home.  I went to the Cheap Strategy in the first place so I could play longer with the same money. I also learned that by betting the same amount over and over again, I was guaranteeing that the negative odds would kill any chance I had of overtaking them.The hardest part is when you hit a nice jackpot and get fooled into thinking another is right around the corner.  I fight these thoughts by remembering how rare a decent jackpot is.  I consider all of them to be a "Bolt Out of the Blue" and not something to get used to.   I can't afford to throw my hard earned bankroll away and I would guess you can't either.  Every players needs to develop a way of dealing with this issue.  It's not an easy thing to do, but it's a worthwhile process.

[Mr.Dawes]

the math folks may be right, but i do not accept that VP play is one long continous event. i feel the same about the stats that say that playing multiple machines is exactly the same as playing one machine.  i do not accept that the short time i spend in a casino or the even shorter time i spend on any machine translates into the long term expected results. i consider each visit and each machine a seperate event. this my opinion and not an effort to convince anyone else.This used to be my opinion as well. However, my thoughts on video poker have slowly morphed into a mixture of the math folks and those like notes1. I do think it is logical to see all sessions of play as a single continuum. I arrived at this opinion by thinking about flipping a coin. 10 coin flips a day for 10,000 days or 100,000 flips in one day should both produce results of approximately 50/50. But when you consider the high number of coin flips needed to reliably get 50/50 results, I am led to believe that my video poker results are less dependent on optimal strategy than a professional. A coin flip only has two possible outcomes, where as video poker has almost 2.6 million hands. Playing 6 - 10 hours of single hand VP a month makes my results similar to only fliping a coin a few dozen times. This is why I am comfortable making strategy changes that sacrifice a very small amount of EV for an increased hit frequency jackpot type hands.And likes notes1 said, this is just an opinion, I am not trying to start a big debate on this issue.

[Tedlark]

  As Phil pointed out; there are a few things that should be taken into account when determining what you walk away point is when visiting a casino. If, like in his case, you have a two hour drive and that means gas. So add gas to the trip cost as well as tips or other incidentals that you may have out of pocket.   If a player has a bankroll of $1,000.00 and if they hit the elusive royal after they've lost $500.00, this means a 200% profit.    It obviously totally depends on each person what they are comfortable with. If I walk away with a minimum 25% profit; I'm happy. Any more than 25% is great but 25% is my bottom line but this doesn't mean I throw money away just to arrive at 25%. Going from a profit of 75% - 100% (or more) down to 25% is just wasteful.

[notes1]

in my mind, there is a big difference. flipping a coin only has two possible outcomes, while there are many more for each hand of VP. i am not disputing that the long term odds of outcomes was long ago figured out accurately.  but, we all know that luck, sitting at the right machine at the right time, has a great influence on out short/long term results. how else does one answer the one poster we have, that has played for decades, knows how to play, plays often, keeps accurate records and says he has gone over i million hands without a RF. another poster had multiple RF in a single weekend.  i have played approx 250 hours over the past 6 months. in that same time frame, the machines have been running non stop, for over 4300 hours. my time in front of any machine is just a tiny percentage of the actual time the machine and the long term stats are calculated. 

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=notes1]but, we all know that luck, sitting at the right machine at the right time, has a great influence on out short/long term results.[/quote]Luck has more to do with video poker results than some people will admit. It's profitable to sell people on the idea that anyone can be a long term winner with a math based strategy alone.  This is totally bogus as much of the profit is tied to a few very rare hands and if those hands don't come to you, you lose no matter who you are.  This is why it is so important to control your losses.   Jackpots take care of themselves.  You control what happens between them.