CS Questions from New2VP

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=New2VP]Why don't we talk about your strategy you created. (I've quoted from it a couple times to give context to your answer; I hope you don't mind.)[/quote]I thought my question would allow you to talk about something else.  I don't think I mentioned Bob Dancer.When I spoke about Bob Dancer I was talking about his strategy, not him personally.  I have nothing against him as a person.  I also do not disagree with his strategy if you have his skills, bankroll and opportunities.   My issue is the vast majority of video poker players do not play in his environment, do not have his bankroll and do not have the time or connections to work the comp system as he does.  In my option using his strategy without his advantages causes most players to lose more money than they have to.In this latest post, you mentioned that you needed a different strategy than what is necessary for positive games yet in the Cheap Strategy you say that you don't change the hand strategy.  ("Notice that I am taking [sic] about modifying the amount of your bet, not the hand strategy.")Perfect hand strategy is important in CS as well.  Hand strategy is different between max coins and single coin.   My website talks a lot about training software and how important it is to your success.  I developed CS using VPW software as it's the only training software that I am aware of that allows you to change denominations as you play and simulate actual playing conditions.You also say you turned things around by playing a negative game strategy.  Do you mean that you turned your losses into gains by playing in a way that gave the casino an even greater house edge than it already had with its negative games at max coin?  If you simply cut your losses because you cut the amount that you bet, that would make sense, of course.CS is a negative game strategy.  The main objective of CS is the reduce the cost to play, not make a profit.  Before switching to CS about three years ago, we were averaging $10-15K in losses per year.  Up to last fall, we actually had a small $2K profit.   Breaking even or coming close is not that difficult with CS if you stick with it.  Making a profit is totally up to luck.  Four months ago I switched back to playing max coins all the time and lost all our profit.  I switched back to CS recently and am hoping to get back in the black.  I never expect to win using CS, my goal is to play for free.("What if I told you there was a way to win max coin $1,000 dollar plus jackpots, while playing 80% of your hands with single coin quarters?")if 80% of your play is at single coin which has a higher house edge, your losses at single coin of course will add to your losses with the 20% of your play that is at max coin, so your expected loss between max-coin royals (or some other defined max-coin jackpot) will be greater not less.  For example with 25-cent 8/5 Jacks, one will still take on average 40,170 max-coin hands per royal flush, during which time one will average a loss of $2356.53 before adding in the $1000 gain for the single max-coin royal.  But if 80% of the play is at single coin, that would be 160,679 hands of single coin play with an expected loss of an additional $1581.26 between max coin royals.  Certainly your loss per hour and per trip will be lower because you wagered less. The whole idea of CS started because we love playing video poker, but the loses were getting in the way of our enjoyment.   Playing single coin is a proven way to reduce loses on a negative video poker game.  That was very easy to see.  Unfortunately, playing single coin all day is boring.   I experimented with different strategies in an attempt to make single coin play exciting enough to hold my attention.  Playing single quarter deuces wild and moving to max coins after a 4 coin win worked the best.  Deuces wild is a game of streaks.  I noticed that occasionally a $20 could be run up pretty high.   For the fun of it and to add even more excitement, I started switching to $1 play at $25.  To my amazement, I hit a $1,000 quad deuce.  After three years of CS we have learned that it is much more common to hit a $1,000 quad deuce this way than a max coin quarter royal flush.  I don't know how you can put math to this, but it works in real play.  If you look at my website you will see over $18,000 worth of these lucky jackpots.  When you play single coin quarters most of the time and you are this lucky, it's easy to make a profit.  Would this work for everyone or will we ever have this happen again?  Who knows?   If not, we will be just as happy to enjoy playing video poker without dealing with the depression of mounting loses.By the way, you said your wife and you played more than most nonprofessionals on this forum, a combined 500,000 hands per year.  Based on these numbers, that would allocate a little less than 2.5 max-coin royals split between the two of you.We average about one royal every month or so.  In a year's time, it's about 8-12 between us.  I am much more interested in how many $1,000 max coin quad deuces we hit than royals.   Last year  I hit 4 of these.  We don't play CS all the time depending upon the odds.  Last year I had one $2,000 max coin royal in Blackhawk CO and one $1,000 royal in Tahoe on our anniversary.  Two years ago, I hit a $4,000 royal flush at the Tampa Hard Rock starting with $20.  I don't know how many other royals we hit because we don't track hands, we track our bankroll balance.  We did hit a significant number of them at $62.50 and/or $250.  As far as we are concerned, they are all good.  My wife plays max coins much more than I do.  She hit three $1,000 royals last year.  If she's losing, she quits and goes shopping.  I need to play CS because I never quit.I hope this answers your questions.  CS will not make you rich.  CS will not bankrupt you either.  It's a way to enjoy video poker cheap and keep the excitement.  It's not for everyone, but it may work for you.  If CS interests you, I suggest you try it on this website for free before you commit real money.   I play it with 98.91% deuces wild and it works well for me.  You won't win everyday, but you won't run through 10,000 coins in a week either.  You may also be interested to know that we still get free hotel room offers and a fair amount of comps even playing CS quarters most of the time.

[olds442jetaway]

Works for me so far for 2016. I didn't stick with it last year and suffered the same losses as the prior year. I play over 1m hands a year, mostly on single line, so unless you are made of money which I am not, CS is an important tool to keep things in check. I vary my play a little from the Phil method, but I do stick to the basics playing one coin until a hit of 4 or more then going to max coin bet of 5 on a deuces wild game. Since I am able to play 9/6 quarter job at Mohegan Sun, if I am not doing well on deuces, I switch to job for awhile just for a change and to hopefully not get too frustrated. Doing that the other day resulted in a nice max coin Royal on the job game. After a nice break, I went back to deuces cs play and played several more hours only losing fifty bucks. At that point, I was ready to go home anyway for some family commitments etc.
     The other variant I sometimes use is not for everyone. It is a very mild Martingale Clone built into CS. I have discussed it previously and it only comes into play on hits of 4 or more. If I have been missing, missing, missing on the bet 5, I just start making my max bet after a 4 or more hit 6 and continue the progression if it doesn't work at 6 either. It doesn't cost me much more at all for the day since most of your play is at the single coin level. I know it is early in the year yet, but so far so good.

[FloridaPhil]

One tip I have discovered is to stay with max coins a little longer if the streak of hands is significant.  Quite a few of my max coin quads came when I decided to take a gamble and do this.  You can get away with this if you're not in a big hole to begin with.  The problems come when you have played max coins all morning and you're down 1000 coins or more.  Nothing good ever happens then.  

[FAA]

Thanks for reinforcing the max to min point! I even came to devise a little strategy for myself. Just being down 200 coins on my budget is a disastrous black eye for me. That means that I have already likely registered a loss for the day as I cannot reasonably catch up. I really must follow the min to max path with relentless stoical, monkish discipline. I typically start playing at 10:45 AM. So min until noon is a good rule of thumb!

[FloridaPhil]

A professional will say that min max is a waste of time.  That may be the case when you're playing a 100% game waiting for math to do it's thing, but it's essential when playing negative games.   Using a $50 cash out limit seems to work best with CS quarters.  Walking out totally broke is taboo as far as I'm concerned.  

[FAA]

Yes. I'm never walking out broke again. It's such a walk of shame. Even playing a 99.5 percenter and waiting for the math to reward me us a pipe dream. What good is $1,000 after losing bankrolls on a weekly basis for a year? Just say no to a $3,000 loss. Break even is much more palatable.

[edog743]

FAA, what is your definition of break even?

[olds442jetaway]

One tip I have discovered is to stay with max coins a little longer if the streak of hands is significant.  Quite a few of my max coin quads came when I decided to take a gamble and do this.  You can get away with this if you're not in a big hole to begin with.  The problems come when you have played max coins all morning and you're down 1000 coins or more.  Nothing good ever happens then.  

The above is Phil's. Below is Olds....

     This strategy refinement could easily be adapted to my CS/MC version. For instance, divide the hit by 4 and that is how long you would stay at max or 5 coin. Example, hitting a wild royal would give you 6 max coin tries. A straight flush would give you 2 tries at 5 coins, five of a kind would give you either 3 or 4 tries at bet 5, and 4 of a kind or a full house would give you just one try at bet 5. However, like Phil posted, if your day had been going badly and you were just trying to climb back up a little, you might not want to try this. I am actually heading up later tonight and may just give this a try if the machines are not ice cold. Same rule could apply for a 9/6 job game. Of course the max coin tries would be different like hitting a full house would give you 2 tries at bet 5, etc. etc.....

[alpax]

I think what New2Vp was trying to get at before asking those questions is if FP had hobbies other than VP in which he is better at than most others (I heard the saying everyone is good at something, even if it is a life-destructive habit such as being able to win binge alcohol drinking contests). I recall the stories about the bass fishing, so I think that was what New2vp wanted to know.

I know FP is upstanding with regards to taking the stance of a recreational player but to most other people, it seems to be something much bigger than a hobby. I have spectated a good amount of people who play on a "recreational" basis, at least 30 players per visit playing VP. They all make errors to a degree in which VP for Winners deem as major, such as holding Queen - Ten off suit, betting single coin dollars when the max quarters offer the same pay schedule, or just hold 1 non-ace high card instead of 2 them in DDB. But by trading barbs with an expert like Dancer does give a different impression.

This is just my opinion, FP should consider paying the consulting fees to Dancer to see how Florida is a winnable district. I'm guessing it is hammering full pay Jacks or Better and Bonus Poker on a promotional drawing/slot tournament day and redeeming the points accrued on the players card at the gift shop for items that are sellable on ebay or craigslist.

[BobDancer]

This is just my opinion, FP should consider paying the consulting fees to Dancer to see how Florida is a winnable district. I'm guessing it is hammering full pay Jacks or Better and Bonus Poker on a promotional drawing/slot tournament day and redeeming the points accrued on the players card at the gift shop for items that are sellable on ebay or craigslist.Save your money. I only consult about things I feel I'm expert about. And while I periodically hear of good plays in Florida (and am convinced that once can win there), I do not have enough recent experience to provide anybody with a road map on how to do it.Further, my approach is largely incompatible with his. I STRONGLY believe vp is a grind-it-out affair. Find a small advantage and exploit it. Today's score is largely irrelevant. The game is entirely math based. Over time, luck has very little to do with your score over the past 5 or 10 years. Sometimes you have to scout for weeks or months before you find a playable game, but until you do, don't play.FP believes in basing actions on today's score. He worries about whether he is ahead or behind relative to when he got out of bed this morning. To me, that's one almost-irrelevant data-point on a multi-year-long journey. I don't get too excited by wins or losses. It's inconceivable to me that even if I told him the casinos to go to, the games to play, and when, that he would be willing to follow the instructions. He does things his way. Period.