It amazes me that I have 100 three Aces hands...

[trumpforprez16]

...and nothing.

This was on Frenzy, where you get extra hands. It was really about 125 to 150 AAA hands, and NOTHING.

I notice with high denoms, you seem to get even less.

I've seen hundreds of hands pass by with a single four of a kind.

You just have to wonder if this crap is rigged.

A $1 machine can eat $50,000 in a few hours and spit nothing out.

$4000 for a Royal starts feeling like chump change.

Max payback my ass.

[Tedlark]

For all those who: wonder; question; think; assume; have suspicions; mistrust; have qualms; are skeptical, of video poker being rigged I offer the same advice:

Quit playing video poker and take up another game that you may feel is not any of the above.

[BobDancer]

you seem to be unsure of how many hands you played --- which clearly means you weren't recording.you convert 3 aces to 4 every 23.5 hands on average. 100 hands is about 4 cycles. Going zip for four cycles happens about 1 in 800 times. Play long enough and it will happen to you. Dealing with it when it happens is part of gambling. Not a fun part, to be sure, but it happens.

[ryegold]

Was dealt a royal two weeks ago
One in 650k odds
Pretty cool indeed

[ryegold]

It's all about the bankroll
Level of skill
Patience
We all know it's a random chip card generator dealing the hands and we all know the machines are closely monitored by the authorities too

[New2vp]

you seem to be unsure of how many hands you played --- which clearly means you weren't recording.you
convert 3 aces to 4 every 23.5 hands on average. 100 hands is about 4
cycles. Going zip for four cycles happens about 1 in 800 times. Play
long enough and it will happen to you. Dealing with it when it happens is part of gambling. Not a fun part, to be sure, but it happens.

Your point is well-taken.  Mr. Dancer, thanks for all the sanity that you
bring to the forum.  I'm guessing that you may gave read a decimal point wrong
here (or made some other minor math error*).  To emphasize the lack of rarity of what trumpforprez16
experienced, missing quad aces 100 times drawing from trip aces will happen in the future about 1 time in 77.  Ironically, if the actual number of missing quads from trips is closer to 150 (actually 154), the odds of all misses will be about 1 in 810.Trumpforprez16, Most of us have felt your pain and wondered whether our bad luck was due to something else at one time or another.  If you continue to play, eventually this MAY be a feeling that you get over, but I'm not sure the feelings work that way for everyone.  For the scientific method to work, if you want to check whether machines are rigged in a particular way, you have to formulate a hypothesis about future hands BEFORE observing results, keep records and check them.  Noticing that something happened in the past is fraught with disaster.  And a lot of people use that "recency" bias to incorrectly conclude that something sinister was more likely than chance as an explanation.  Please note that I'm not saying that it would be impossible for anything to be rigged.  However, I would challenge you to start your counting of results over.  If your NEXT154 hands drawing to trip aces fails to connect even once, STARTING NOW, you have more reason to conclude foul play than you do by noticing what occurred in the past.  And while testing for a paucity of quad aces, you happen to notice (for example) a string of 4 flushes that failed to convert, again it would be faulty logic to conclude on that basis that the "rigging" had switched from quad aces to flushes.  The key is that any hypothesis to be tested is to be formed BEFORE observing the data.  Of course there is more to doing this testing than can be explained in a short post (or even a long one like this one!).*[Footnote to Bob]  I'm guessing that if you think about it in your experience, missing a hit in 4 cycles is a lot more likely than one time out of 800.  If you weren't using (1 - 1/23.5)^100 and you were using the e^(- x) estimate for probability of missing a hit in x cycles, this latter estimation works a lot better for tiny probabilities closer to zero (like hitting a royal prior to a hand being dealt) than 1/23.5.

[BobDancer]

*[Footnote to Bob]  I'm guessing that if you think about it in your experience, missing a hit in 4 cycles is a lot more likely than one time out of 800.  If you weren't using (1 - 1/23.5)^100 and you were using the e^(- x) estimate for probability of missing a hit in x cycles, this latter estimation works a lot better for tiny probabilities closer to zero (like hitting a royal prior to a hand being dealt) than 1/23.5. Actually I was using the BINOMDIST function on Excel --- and going zero for four cycles. I used BINOMDIST(0,100,0.042553,FALSE), where the 0.042553 is the equivalent of 2/47. So far so good. The answer it came out to be was 0.01293 --- which I ballparked to 1/800 rather than 1/80. Whoops! The 1/77 number you cited in your post is correct.Thanx for correcting my numbers in a way that was helpful and not belittling!

[billryan]

   Close enough for gubermint work.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=Trumpforprez16]This was on Frenzy, where you get extra hands. It was really about 125 to 150 AAA hands, and NOTHING.
I notice with high denoms, you seem to get even less.
I've seen hundreds of hands pass by with a single four of a kind. You just have to wonder if this crap is rigged.
A $1 machine can eat $50,000 in a few hours and spit nothing out.
$4000 for a Royal starts feeling like chump change.
Max payback my ass.
.
[/quote]With all due respect to the experts, the mathematically calculated expected return is based on averages.  There is always a mathematical chance your results could be better or worse.   Actually, there is a small chance you will never convert another trip ace to a quad.  There is also a chance you could convert 10 in a row.   If I am wrong in this assumption, I will stand corrected.  As stated above, this is part of gambling.  

[New2vp]

There is also a small chance that Florida Phil will stop posting on things he doesn't understand ... but the smart money is not on either event.