RNG Questions

[FloridaPhil]

There is always some element of luck or chance, whatever you wish to call it, in every video poker result. In the example I gave above, the percentage of luck involved in that dealt royal was near 100%. Both players could have had this result, only the novice did. As both players play more hands, this percentage diminishes. In time, the expert's results will come closer to the game's odds. This can be attributed to the expert's skill, discipline and bankroll. The influence of luck in video poker never goes away entirely. It may be small, but it still affects results.

In 2008, I hit 4 royals in one day. I happened to be playing dollar VP when I hit three of them plus a few other significant jackpots. My skill level was at the beginner level. My bankroll was much too small for a dollar game and the game odds were 7/5 Jacks or Better. I didn't know what discipline was. I played the game because I didn't know any better. The result was I drove home with $14,000 in my pocket. Hitting those royals that day was lucky.

According to my favorite book, on February 12, 2001 a husband and wife decided to take a pot shot after the Espies. According to the author, they were playing above their bankroll. They played this game because they believed the game was profitable. Both players were skilled and disciplined. They hit two royals for $500,000. This result launched a lucrative career that remains to this day. Hitting those two jackpots that night was lucky.

In time, the expert's results will mimic the game odds and his skill. His knowledge of comps and the ability to take advantage of incentives adds to his profit. Getting lucky one night does not diminish a lifetime of achievement or his results.

Luck is an essential element in gambling or no one would gamble. If the casino had a disclaimer on the wall at the entrance that said "These games have a house edge and you are going to lose" would it deter anyone from going in? NO. They play because they know "luck" has the ability to change a losing day into a winner and they hope long term never comes.

As I write this it makes me smile. Here is a sign that is hanging in the players club at the Beau Rivage in Biloxi. It tells it like it is.

[Jstark]

Your explanation is nonsense. Neither were "lucky." Both got a result of normal distribution. Again, luck does NOT exist.

[billryan]

Phil, you are not being attacked for being a recreational player and nobody is trying to convince you to be one. This topic started off very well with people of all types having a good discussion about the RNG with some useful info. Several pages worth (quite the achievement lately).

I've just re-read this very (very very) long thread to see exactly how we got off so far off track and where this arguing actually began.

When this derailment and bickering started was when the following comment was made by someone:

Here's a better plan. Buy Apple stock (AAPL). Own it. Don't sell it. How would you feel if you made a 6% profit from your video poker? You can earn that return from owning pieces of solid companies like ATT while sitting at home. Of course you wouldn't have the enjoyment of hitting a royal.

Some people didn't care for that particular advice (which has nothing to do with the present subject) because is was not also including any mention of the obvious risks in picking stocks (something you personally claim is very important in video poker, and so should be equally important to you when mentioning stocks). It is a fair objection. You did go on to discuss diversification in stock buying, which is good. But again... totally unrelated.

At that point we were completely off the rails from the good RNG discussion that had been taking place, but could have gotten back... After which, for some reason, the discussion took another turn by bringing up Bob Dancer and how it is not his real name and questioning whether his winnings were from video poker or other matters. Something that you have brought up countless times on this forum, and again is very unrelated to the subject being discussed. So yes, people objected that as well.

So as you can see, the derailments and objections to your posts in this thread have had nothing to do with you being a recreational player. In fact, they nothing to do with video poker at all.

You've said you would not talk about Bob Dancer in the recreational forum any more. Nothing anyone said prompted your comment about him here and it always leads to things going off track.

Please confirm you have read and understand this post and maybe there is still hope of getting back to a discussion about RNG's.

Maybe the brazzilionth time will do the trick.

[FloridaPhil]

Your explanation is nonsense. Neither were "lucky." Both got a result of normal distribution. Again, luck does NOT exist.

Perhaps we in agreement? If you happen to be playing a particular video poker machine when it produces a jackpot, it is the result of the machine's normal distribution.

Luck both good and bad is what happens to you, not the machine. Luck is the intersection of the machine's normal distribution of jackpots and your play.

No person or strategy can force the machine to distribute a jackpot while they are playing. Video poker is gambling that your play will be in sync with the RNG.

[Tedlark]

Phil, you are not being attacked for being a recreational player and nobody is trying to convince you to be one. This topic started off very well with people of all types having a good discussion about the RNG with some useful info. Several pages worth (quite the achievement lately).

I've just re-read this very (very very) long thread to see exactly how we got off so far off track and where this arguing actually began.

When this derailment and bickering started was when the following comment was made by someone:

Here's a better plan. Buy Apple stock (AAPL). Own it. Don't sell it. How would you feel if you made a 6% profit from your video poker? You can earn that return from owning pieces of solid companies like ATT while sitting at home. Of course you wouldn't have the enjoyment of hitting a royal.

Some people didn't care for that particular advice (which has nothing to do with the present subject) because is was not also including any mention of the obvious risks in picking stocks (something you personally claim is very important in video poker, and so should be equally important to you when mentioning stocks). It is a fair objection. You did go on to discuss diversification in stock buying, which is good. But again... totally unrelated.

At that point we were completely off the rails from the good RNG discussion that had been taking place, but could have gotten back... After which, for some reason, the discussion took another turn by bringing up Bob Dancer and how it is not his real name and questioning whether his winnings were from video poker or other matters. Something that you have brought up countless times on this forum, and again is very unrelated to the subject being discussed. So yes, people objected that as well.

So as you can see, the derailments and objections to your posts in this thread have had nothing to do with you being a recreational player. In fact, they nothing to do with video poker at all.

You've said you would not talk about Bob Dancer in the recreational forum any more. Nothing anyone said prompted your comment about him here and it always leads to things going off track.

Please confirm you have read and understand this post and maybe there is still hope of getting back to a discussion about RNG's.

Maybe the brazzilionth time will do the trick.

Not that I'm counting, but in none of the 8 posts Phil made since webman made his excellent post has he confirmed that he has read AND understood webman's post. Phil has however: brought up his spectacular 4 royal day (again) and posted that unicorn poster (again). In the spirit of keeping on the topic of RNG's though, I will ask Phil this: Regarding your 4 royal day, how many of those do you attribute to luck and how many to skill?

[billryan]

Rulez are for little people.

[FloridaPhil]

In the spirit of keeping on the topic of RNG's though, I will ask Phil this: Regarding your 4 royal day, how many of those do you attribute to luck and how many to skill?

We were told to stay on topic. That's what I am doing.

I do not believe skill creates jackpots. I believe skill allows you to play more hands with your money. This gives you more chances that your play will be in sync with the numbers the RNG selects.

[billryan]

Phil believes
1)skill allows you to play more hands
2) more hands gives you more chances that your play is in sync with the numbers the RNG selects.
I think he is trying to say that the more hands you play, the closer your results will approach the expected results.
I think we all agree that the more hands one plays, the more jackpots one can expect.
So, If skill allows you to play more hands, and more hands produce more jackpots, how can one say skill doesn't create jackpots

[Webman]

Man, you guys are ruthless. I've never seen people get so uptight about the use of the word "luck."

Phil... I'll say, you are making a noble effort. But you did decide to dive right into another Bob Dancer reference. I mean, seriously...

[FloridaPhil]

We are discussing the RNG. I gave two examples, one that happened to me and one that we are all familiar with. I also said some nice things about Mr. Dancer's achievements. Some members seem to think any reference I make to him is some kind of veiled insult. That's not true. I respect the person behind the name as a businessman and a fellow entrepreneur. I am more than willing to give him credit where credit is due.

My eight year disagreement with some video poker experts is subtle, but significant in it's influence. They seem to claim playing positive video poker games computer perfectly removes the risk from gambling. They describe positive VP games as worth "X" number of dollars an hour in profit. They never run out of money or give up because they claim to have an edge on the casino and eventually they must profit. This is about as close to a guarantee as I can imagine. There is a significant difference between increasing your chances of making a profit and guaranteeing one.

When playing video poker, there is no guarantee you will profit today, tomorrow or in your lifetime. There is always a chance things won't work out the way the odds predict. It's is totally possible you will do everything right and still lose money in the casino.

If the experts will add these words to their claims, I wouldn't have to continually point this out. There is NO can't lose video poker game or strategy. As long as players know this, I'm fine with the rest of what they say.