Reassessment

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=onemoretry]Sometimes, you post sensible comments. Other times, what you post is
off the wall nonsensical garbage that suggests you have very little
understanding of probabilities, randomness, etc. [/quote]I know something about probability.  In my youth, I raced some powerful cars.   There was always the probability that I would be killed.  Obviously that didn't happen.  I was betting my life that the odds were on the side of my survival.   Out of the thousands of people who race cars, thankfully only a few go out in fire and smoke.In video poker, the probability that you will make money is reversed.  Out of the millions of people who play the game, how many make money?  There are only a few people who even claim to make a long term profit.  Have you ever noticed most of those people stand to gain financially from players believing they do?  If I sell a million books and videos on how to make money flipping houses, does that make me a great Realtor?  If VP strategy was that effective, the world would be full of VP winners.  Obviously that is not the case.I can only speak for myself.  All things being equal, I do not believe any one skilled player can do anything to tilt the probability curve in their favor.  There will always be an element of chance to VP.  How much is debatable.  I believe it's significant enough to temper the amount I am willing to risk.   If others have different assessments of the risk, they can do what they want with their own money.  It is important that both sides of this discussion be aired.  When you only have one side of the VP strategy conversation, all you have is another infomercial.If you wish to say playing the best VP games as computer perfect as you can allows you to play longer with your money or to purchase your entertainment at a discount, I can live with that.  Stating you can live a nice lifestyle strictly from your VP winnings is too far of a stretch for me to swallow.In 2018 I will attempt to play max coin quarter VP exclusively.  I will play games with the best quarter odds I can find and I will try to play as close to my VPW software as I am able.  I will stop concerning myself with things I can not control and work harder to control the things I can.  I will make a serious attempt to stop taking pot shots and dreaming about big jackpots.  I don't want any W2Gs on my tax form and I expect to end the year with minimal losses.  I wish you luck however you chose to play.   See you at the casino! 

[New2vp]

[quote=onemoretry]Sometimes, you post sensible comments. Other times, what you post is
off the wall nonsensical garbage that suggests you have very little
understanding of probabilities, randomness, etc. I know something about probability.  ...

























[/QUOTE]Perhaps he knows something about probability, but not enough to teach others.  Certainly the remainder of the post that I partially copied would not convince anyone doubting his assertion.Onemoretry, nice attempt to nudge him to reality.  If experience is a teacher, it will fall on deaf ears (or blind eyes) and math/stat-butchering will continue.  Please reference the Dunning-Kruger effect to see why.Another gem from this thread:
  I believe all human VP play is short term....I will only count what happens to my bankroll long term. Both snippets in the same post.  'Nuff said?

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=New2vp]Another gem from this thread:

Originally posted by FloridaPhil  I believe all human VP play is short term....I will only count what happens to my bankroll long term.Both snippets in the same post.  'Nuff said?[/quote]You are taking my statements out of context.  "All human play is short term" means I do not believe humans can play long enough for math to have any serious influence individual results.  "I will only count what happens to my bankroll long term" means I won't concern myself with daily results.  Unless you quit and never play again, all VP is one long chain of events.Faith is a power force in the Universe.  If you believe playing only positive VP games perfectly will make you a long term winner, I wish you success.  Call us in 10 years and tell us how it worked out.  Hopefully, we will all be around to view your post.

[New2vp]

Phil, I know that my previous post may seem a bit harsh.  But a suggestion for peaceful coexistence:  Since you clearly want to post (a lot) in the Recreational Play (RP) section and have sworn off the Strategy section, you may want to stop criticizing or talking about strategy and just stick to RP.












































[quote=billryan]Have you ever seen such a sight in your life as three
Blind Mice?This is the Recreational Strategy Forum where individual thought is not censored or controlled. 













































[/QUOTE]Small correction that might make the difference for you.  This is NOT Recreational "Strategy."  It is Recreational Play.  Continue to have fun playing and talking about playing and leave the strategy to others.If that doesn't make sense to you, fine.  I figured there is no harm in trying to reach a place with less conflict.  Have a Happy New Year!Edit:  Phil, you're too quick.  I had not seen your response post before entering this one.  Best of luck.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=New2VP]Small correction that might make the difference for you.  This is NOT Recreational "Strategy."  It is Recreational Play.  Continue to have fun playing and talking about playing and leave the strategy to others.[/quote]No offense taken.  I think every member of this forum should feel free to post their own thoughts freely.  I do not take personally anything posted on this forum.   I have my beliefs and others are entitled to theirs.   That is the nature of Internet Forums. This forum does not use anyone's real name.  With the exception of some members I have met over the years, I do not know anyone personally.  Even our resident expert does not use his real name.  I do not judge anyone by what they say on this forum.  I think for myself and come to my own conclusions based on my own experience.   In my view if more people thought for themselves instead of becoming talking parrots, the world would be a better place.
I can see your point about the difference between "Strategy" and "Play".   I take most traditional VP strategy seriously.  The major difference between my beliefs and the true believers is in the amount of influence "chance" has on our results.  I think luck has much more significance on individual results than experts will admit.  The experts are selling the promise that controlling your actions in some way will make you a long term winner.  VP is a game where the appearance of one or two rare hands out of hundreds of thousands can make the difference between winning and losing.  No strategy can force those hands to appear any more or less frequent.I live in a small town with 15,000 residents.  In my area there are at least 100 churches and synagogues.  All of these people worship the same God and all of them believe their interpretation of God is the right one.  We are all right when it comes to the big issue.  We disagree about a lot of small things that don't matter all that much.  Tolerance of other people's views allows everyone to share equally in the game, whether it be VP or life itself.
Happy New Year!!

[FAA]

Here's to ending the coming year with minimal losses. This should be every player's goal in 49 states. We just can't keep killing ourselves every week. Or donating four times my loss for monthly victims.

[billryan]

Dear Lord;
Please let us break even. I really need the money.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=billryan]Dear Lord;
Please let us break even. I really need the money.[/quote]I'm pretty sure the Lord has more important things to do than help someone dumb enough to believe they are going to make money playing video poker.  

[FAA]

It's a casino. Gambler's prayer is just default mode. My new section to avoid is the HL room. There's bound to be a high concentration of hand pays on the weekend. Busy bees attendants. Cash thrown around like coins. It gets so frustrating to watch that you get the itch. Back to the VP bank to score one yourself. You know the rest.  

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=FAA]It's a casino.[/quote]You think?  Once you learn how to play VP accurately, the only way for the average player to reduce their losses is to reduce their coin in.  This doesn't work for most players because the fun of gambling is the dream that you will hit a big jackpot.   The casino knows this and is counting on us to pay their bills.  Players are not dreaming of $50 wins, so we keep feeding the machines bigger and bigger hoping our dream will come true.  Our dream comes true about one time out of 40,000 hands (maybe) and the cycle continues.  Eventually you lose so much that even a royal flush won't pull you out.When you fall behind, you bet bigger or switch to a higher variance game in an attempt to win back your loses.  This usually makes things worse.  You walk around with an empty wallet most of the time because all your spare cash is going into the machines.   You trick yourself into thinking you are doing OK because the casino gives you more free play and more comps.   You read books where people claim to live luxurious lifestyles playing VP and you wonder if you have what it takes.  You blame yourself and depression starts to set in.  VP stops being fun and becomes an obsession. If you have reached this point, what is needed is a complete reset.  I play next to someone who plays VP so cheap you wouldn't believe it.  She plays max coin quarter VP slowly and accurately.  She plays 97-99% single line quarter deuces wild exclusively.  She never changes games and she never changes denomination.  She loses sometimes and she wins sometimes.  Overall she loses, but her cost to play is minimal.  Anyone can do what she does, all it takes is to kick the dream and have the discipline to stick with a plan. That's the kind of VP "fun" I want to have in 2018.