panic??

[Tedlark]

There are many lessons to be learned from this pandemic. Last year I read an article that I believe was by Mark Cuban. He warned investors of a coming crisis. He said we needed to stockpile enough cash to last 1-2 years without income. He said those who heeded his warning would come out better when the crisis is over. When I read that, I couldn't imagine what the crisis would be. Now we know.

Hindsight is always 20/20. Monday morning quarterbacks always know how to win the game. Funny how some people always seem to get it right.

This is in no means a shot at Phil because he is simply the messenger but what Phil attributed to Mark Cuban saying is like investment planning 101. As for the timing of Cuban's prediction compared to the arrival of the COVID-19 Pandemic I will say that many phony mediums use the same open-ended method.

[Tedlark]

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[notes1]

investors don't have a bias, they just want to make money. And, what they are telling us (at least for right now) is that the worst fears may be over. Economy will have a long way to go.
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Important caveats. That V shaped economic curve that GS posited seems to be out the window. I'm now hearing of a W curve. So we'll hit another bottom. They're saying early August.

no idea how much money you have. your posts indicate you are many years away from retirement. why do you care what goldman sachs has to say about the near or long term investing 'guess estimate'?
invest every dollar available each month (dollar cost averaging) into a diversified portfolio of mutual funds or etf's (mainly large cap usa). don't try to time the market, don't try to guess the high or the low. invest when it hurts the most. set a goal, when one gets older, closer to goal, start moving to less risky places.

[advantage playe]

belive on THE LORD JESUS AND YOU WILL BE SAVED !!!!!!!!!!! on an infinitly lower level of importance , index funds long run outperform ! known as the e. market hypoth. again on an infinitly lower level of importance !

[notes1]

the title of this thread is PANIC. seems the media is most likely to praise those who panic the most.

any leader that refrained or held back on shutting down any part of economy has been considered as uncaring for the rest of mankind. any leader who wants to reopen the country for business, is labeled by the media as being in the pockets of wall street.

but, if you are a leader that screams constantly that the medical system will surely be overwhelmed (never happened), that many will die for lack of supplies (never happened), that everything should be closed and stay closed, you are considered, by the left and media, as thoughtful and concerned about others.

has anyone else noticed, that the one's most vocal about keeping things closed, are the one's who never lose a paycheck, when things are closed.

[New2vp]

In Ohio, much of the working population may have less to be concerned about from the virus than the conventional wisdom, presuming sensible precautions. A CSV file has been available for download daily from the state's Department of Health with some detail provided, showing County Residence, Gender, Age Range, Case Onset Date, and Date of Death where applicable.

I was a little surprised to find out that out of the 231 deaths reported (thru the April 10th report), there are precisely 0 deaths to females under the age of 60. That is 0 out of approximately 4,431,000 females based on a 2018 population estimate. Now I know that the governor's stay-at-home orders and business closures have had some effect; however, I think there is something else going on here besides behavior that is responsible for the relatively extreme lack of vulnerability in this group. There have been 1956 cases of Covid-19 among females under 60, but not a single death so far. I have not seen this fact emphasized by any reporter or official in terms of how this information could be used in determining when to "re-open the state."

The results are worse for males, but there still have been only 2 deaths reported for males under 50 out of 1071. As I understand it, deaths are reported when the Covid-19 virus has been identified in a case. But the data file does not show complications, so it is impossible for me to tell if there were other health factors involved in these particular deaths. These 2 deaths are out of the 3,703,000 males in Ohio under age 50. So, adding these populations together, that is 2 deaths out of over 8,000,000 people. Of course any death is tragic; however, some deaths are going to occur over 6 to 8 weeks when you are starting with a population exceeding 8,000,000. These favorable results call into question what the tradeoff should be between risk-taking with health vs. risk-taking with the economy.

There is no question that the numbers for older individuals are more ominous, and it is great if a slow-the-spread strategy can prevent infections, hospitalizations, and deaths among those more susceptible groups, including viruses passed from the younger folk who seem less vulnerable to the more serious threats.

Unfortunately more deaths are inevitable regardless of what decisions our elected officials come up with. Hopefully, though, a full unbiased analysis will guide decision-making more than the twin terrors of politics and ignorance, particularly in areas of the country that are not making the nightly news, places other than NY, NJ, La, Mi, other parts of New England, and D.C.

[New2vp]

You have no doubt heard that the negative effects of Covid-19 have been uneven and have hit some less advantaged segments of the populations harder than the population in general.

The file that I have access to does not show income, race, or ethnicity of the various cases. But there are some rather surprising numbers showing that the hardest hit segment has been males. This has been talked about some, but I think the degree to which this virus attacks males vs. females might surprise a couple of you. The male population subset is not generally championed by those who call for redistribution and other government regulations to enact social engineering more pleasing to their personal preferences.

While the most striking statistic in my previous post was that there were 0 female deaths under 60, Ohio has recorded 18 deaths among males in their 50s. This makes it difficult to calculate a relative ratio comparing male to female mortality due to this virus for those in their 50s. So, the death rate for males in their 50s is currently infinitely higher than that for females in their 50s. This is also trivially true in Ohio for those in their 30s and 40s, but there has been only a single male death in each of those age ranges against 0 deaths for females.

For the other higher age ranges, there is a double strike against males. For those in their 60s, males are 20% more likely to be in the case count than females. And, looking only at the Covid-19 cases, males are 124% more likely to have died thus far. That is, the death rate per case is more than double. Multiplying those ratios together means males are 169% more likely to die of the virus than females; i.e., the death rate for males is 2.69 times the female death rate.

For those in their 70s, males are 49% more likely to be counted as a case and the death rate per case is 60% higher, for a total death rate that is 137% higher. For those 80 and older, males are 48% more likely to be counted as a case, and the death rate per case is 38% higher. This equates to a death rate that is 103% higher.

The officials have reported that there are slightly more cases that are female while there are more deaths that are male; but they have not emphasized the size of the disparity. By simply counting cases, they are not accounting for the denominator in calculating an infection rate or a death rate. As most demographers would quickly tell you, in the older age ranges there are more women than men. And it gets more extreme as the age range increases. For example, in Ohio there are 67% more women over the age of 80 than men.

Regardless of these results, I am going to guess that those people who are concerned with uneven treatment among various population segments will suddenly grow silent about demanding changes to further equality for males in this case. We'll see.

[advantage playe]

thanks new2vp for this interesting data ! I was mostly not aware .

[notes1]

for some time now, there has been consistent anecdotal comments from treating physicians, that they have been seeing the hardest hit group as older, obese and diabetic. this is one of the reasons, it is presumed, that new orleans, detroit and other big cities, that may have larger black populations, are being affected more. this is not racism or bigotry, these are facts.

and, i believe it is time to stop saying, 'every loss of life is tragic'. damn, just a politically correct line from the idiots of the world. of course, no one wants to see anyone die.

[tech58]

Ditto's, on the thanks to new2vp.

For those of us, with a target on our back. Would you be able to find odds of survival if infected for ages 70-80 and 80-up.

If not available, could you post a link to site you use?