For what it's worth.

[shadowman]

I flipped a coin 20 times and got 14 heads. Then put it in the refrigerator for 20 minutes and tried again. Only 9 heads.  I think hot and cold might be possible but let me try once more when it is warm again so i can know for sure.
 
Eduardo, you may have broke the code  Now, all you need to do is get that barbecue pit into the casino.

[Eduardo]

Eduardo, you may have broke the code  Now, all you need to do is get that barbecue pit into the casino.Harder may be getting the video poker machine into that barbecue pit.

[denflo60]

Shadowman;  You are correct about coin flipping etc, as long as you have a gaussian bell curve.  In a short run streak, this is not the case so your examples in my mind do not apply.  Long Term Capital Management had several Nobel winners and a few handfulls of PHD's who constructed a set of mathematical  assumptions for the economy and which over several years netted them large gains. Then came an event that showed that the economy doesn't always follow a bell curve, and the company and the Nobel winners and their PHD friends as well as the LTCM.  went belly up and had to be bailed out by the banks. 
They had brilliant math formulas that were all correct except for the fact that one of their going in assumptions was incorrect over a relatively very short time period (Black Swan).  I am not convinced that short run streakiness in Video Poker is not of the same ilk.  I also am not convinced that there is no  way at times, not  to predict a streak is coming, but rather to know that you are in a streak.  For this reason, I believe, only with enough computers, PHD candidates etc.   can this be proven or disproven.   Until then, those of us who believe there are different ways to skin a cat may be as right in the short run as you bell curve math folks believe you are right in the long run.  I am sure there are many geniuses out there, perhaps yourself included, who strongly believe that your way is the only right way because the math formulas are correct.  I would agree as long as your assumptions are equally correct and I am not sure that your short term assumptions are correct.  Therefore, I beg to differ.  Respecfully submitted.    Denny

[babybubba]

I think you just ruined his day again.

[shadowman]

Shadowman;  You are correct about coin flipping etc, as long as you have a gaussian bell curve.  In a short run streak, this is not the case so your examples in my mind do not apply.  Long Term Capital Management had several Nobel winners and a few handfulls of PHD's who constructed a set of mathematical  assumptions for the economy and which over several years netted them large gains. Then came an event that showed that the economy doesn't always follow a bell curve, and the company and the Nobel winners and their PHD friends as well as the LTCM.  went belly up and had to be bailed out by the banks. 
They had brilliant math formulas that were all correct except for the fact that one of their going in assumptions was incorrect over a relatively very short time period (Black Swan).  I am not convinced that short run streakiness in Video Poker is not of the same ilk. 
 
Denny, these are interesting facts but not relavent. It's "apples and oranges". VP is a FINITE game. All possible combinations are known. There are no "outside" influences. You are attempting to use a far more complicated model. It is unnecessary and will only confuse you.
 
I also am not convinced that there is no  way at times, not  to predict a streak is coming, but rather to know that you are in a streak.  For this reason, I believe, only with enough computers, PHD candidates etc.   can this be proven or disproven. 
 
It has already been proven. The fact that the game is finite makes the proof easy (at least with today's computers). The coin flip is also finite which makes it a good simplification for VP. All it takes is understanding the probabilities for all possible outcomes. Since this probability is unchanging as you play, the probability of the future outcomes is also unchanged (there is no way to know ALL future probabilities with the stock market). You CANNOT predict whether future results will be better or worse than previous results. Streaks are simply a historical prospective.
 
   Until then, those of us who believe there are different ways to skin a cat may be as right in the short run as you bell curve math folks believe you are right in the long run.  I am sure there are many geniuses out there, perhaps yourself included, who strongly believe that your way is the only right way because the math formulas are correct.  I would agree as long as your assumptions are equally correct and I am not sure that your short term assumptions are correct.  Therefore, I beg to differ.  Respecfully submitted.    Denny
 
This is where you get off the track. Since the game is FINITE and the MATH is not at all complicated. The answers are all known. You don't need a math degree to understand any of the assumptions. They are
 
1) the game is a fixed unchanging deck of a specified number of cards.
2) the rules of the game (poker) and the paytable are known.

3) the game is random and fair (all cards have equal probabilities).4) every hand is independent of all other hands (no past information is used to alter the next deal).
 
Once this is assumed you can compute the probability for any result on every hand. These probabilities DO NOT CHANGE. Just as the probability of a future head or tail doesn't change with a coin-flip. As far as understanding streaks I believe VP and coin-flips may be considered equivalent.
 
If the assumptions are invalid then all bets are off. However, I think the implemetation of VP games does follow these assumptions. You really need to "see" in your mind what it means for the probability of any result to be unchanged as you play. If you have the same chance of getting a RF/Quad/etc. then how can you "know" you are in a cold streak? If the probability of a bust hand is the same than how can you "know" you're in a hot streak? Once you realize they can't be "known" you will see the futility of your quest.
 
 

[shadowman]

I think you just ruined his day again.
 
To the contrary ... this is the stuff I really enjoy.

[denflo60]

Shadowman:  I hear you, but I also know there is random streakiness in video poker and these streaks do not follow bell curves but have bigger tails in either the positive or negative direction in the short run.  Therefore the optimal short run math is not bell curve math. 
Now I would agree that there is a question whether one can know when he is in a streak.  Lets assume for a moment that after some one or more consecutive positive hands  or two out of four positive or any other rules you set , you assume are in a streak and increase your wager by some means lets pick a number 5% and you do the reverse on the negative side.  Some times you will guess right and sometime wrong.  When you guess right you put a floor under your accumulated  gain or a stop loss in the other direction. You don't give it back either by changing machines, stopping play or other.  Seems to me you'd be ahead of conventional play.  I don't think I can be proven wrong without a long computer study.  I assume you would say it would all even out anyway so don't waste the time.
 
I am not saying you know what the proper plays are in streak, therefore increasing the bet size, hands played etc. is my approach, but there may be others.  This way you account for a swings as opposed to changing methodology  for any particular hand  in  a streak.  Now I don't want to get in a drawn out debate on this, I just want to say I understand what you and 99% of the vp pros out there are saying, I just refuse to believe it without an exhaustive study that streaks cannot be taken advantage of in both positive and negative directions some percent of the time.  If you bet a lot of money it doesn't take much of an edge to pay off.    
 
Now if you don't believe there is streakiness in video poker, then we have a different kind of  argument.
 
I will continue to read more (3 more books coming) , practice more and go to Vegas more (May 24-29) and we'll see what happens.  I've always had a tendency in life to go against the grain, and video poker is no different.  I listen to everyone I can, read all I can and use live experiences to help me come to a conclusion.  Its my decision, not a consensus.  So far in life I am very happy with my batting average.  
By the way everything you say I agree with for the long run, but I question the applicability to some of the short run swings that make up the long run.  Like you, I enjoy these discussions when I find the time for them.          Denny
 

[babybubba]

Denny: You just ruined...I mean made....his day again. Now he can put together another canned, neurotic line-item reply.  If you're trying to get a long-term strategist to change their mind then you're gonna have to wait, as I have to, until they come to me for advice and ultimately, help. Most eventually will be forced into doing it because of the accumulating losses over time. You'll notice many of them say they play smaller denomination games because, as they say it, they figure they're playing "under the radar" when anyone with a brain knows that's not the case at all since they are as addicted to using their totally trackable slot club card as they are to playing the game too often.
 
Good luck on your May trip.

[Truth Teller]

Hi all,Since VP is no longer random like the good old days, isn't this all a bunch of hay over nothing?In the old days, VP could be counted on to deal as if there was a 52-card deck...53 for Jokers Wild.But has anyone checked out the Nevada Gaming Commission lately?  Rules for VP machines lately?Think those payoff schedules determine payoff percentages?Think there's a rule that says the draw has to be random?Think again.A machine is required to be able to generate all possible combinations...for the initial deal.  Storing those combinations in an EPROM is no problem these days.A machine is required to have a minimum payoff percentage of around 70%.So what if we designed a machine that cheats some of the time by dealing nothing but unwinnable crap with worthless draws, and plays somewhat fair on other occasions by randomly selecting an initial combination from all those stored, and then dealing an honest-to-goodness random draw after discard?Putting it another way, if there are roughly 3,000,000 possible combinations, and we store them all in an EPROM, and then we add 900,000 crap combinations to another EPROM with the draw pre-determined to result in a losing hand, and then we program the machine to select from the 900,000 crap hands, 23% of the time, well...?What happens to actual payoff percentage then?It drops to a legal minimum of 70%, that's what happens.And the only way to beat a machine...ANY machine, is if there was a way to know when the game was playing fair.Perhaps dealt hands yield clues from time to time, much like crooked Japanese pachinko machines do.Perhaps a few know what clues to look for, or have programmer friends who have assisted them along the way.And perhaps all the suckers who believe VP is random like the old days serve an important purpose...getting machines through the bad times, so those who know what's going on can get to the good times.Perhaps.

[babybubba]

Talk about ruining a guy's day....what'll you see the nervous line item response to this one