Can't improve dealt hand

[MikeA]

There were 3 playing but they were using an auto-shuffle (Master Shuffle) so there was not much "down time" between shoes.  Still, I doubt that they were hitting 60 hands per hour.  I use an unbalanced count called "KO" for "Knock Out".  On a Double Deck game, the count starts at -4.  Only 8's and 9's are neutral with 7's counted low.  1 unit bets until the count gets to +1 and at that point, you increase or "ramp" your bet by 1 more unit.  You stand on 15 and 16 against Face cards at +1 and higher.  At +1 you also stand on 12 against 2 and 3 and also stand on 12 and 13 against Face.  You take "Insurance and Even Money" at +3.  Your bet has to be at max (5-units) at the +4 count.Because it is unbalanced, it is unusual to get to high counts before half the deck is expended.  You really have to utilize the ramping to gain maximum advantage.  Ramping accounts for most of the advantage with the "Insurance" bets counting second.  Last are the deviations from standard play (Basic Strategy).  And, the ramping does increase EV because you are risking the minimum in poor deck situations and the maximum in rich situations.  In 6-deck games, you have to ramp 10x at a minimum.  With single and double deck games, you can get by with 5x.  Although KO is not the most sophisticated system, it is simple to learn and employ without having to do deck-estimation and the associated division of Running Count that gets you to the True Count where you can make decisions.You are right on the Truth with the statement on volitility (variance).  At 28% on DB VP, you have to have deeper pockets than with Blackjack where the variance is around 6.5%.  As for bankroll, I consider $.25 VP at around the $25 minimum tables in blackjack as far as bankroll goes.  Nickel VP equated not too differently from $5 Blackjack.  At least that is what experience indicates for the way I play.I'm playing at the 750+ level on VP now according to VPW (slower when rated by BVS software at around 600).  I'm not sure which is correct.  I seem to be playing at pretty much at the limitations of the screen displays.  On the machines in the casino, with the speed set at maximum, I'm playing physically at a rate much faster than I play on the simulations.Mainly, because of the lousey pay tables, I was playing at the nickel level until I saw that the pay tables were better at the dime level.  They didn't change any at the quarter level so I stayed at $.50 per spin.  Above the quarter level, they stood at 9/6 so no advantage would have been gained.

[shadowman]

Sounds like you could hit max bets realatively soon if the deck started out small. Do you play any 4-6 deck games or do you try to limit yourself to two decks?

[MikeA]

Sounds like you could hit max bets realatively soon if the deck started out small. Do you play any 4-6 deck games or do you try to limit yourself to two decks? With DD, it can get rich fast.  It happened last night while I was backcounting.  After the first round of cards was dealt, it had reached 0.  After the second round, it was at +3.  It climbed as high as +6 in that shoe.  In fact, I told the guy I was standing behind that if I were playing, I'd have my max bet out.  He asked why and I just told him that I'd be surprised if the next round were not all blackjacks and 20's.  Sure enough, both he and the guy in the middle got blackjacks.  The guy on first got a 20 with an Ace-9 and the dealer had a face showing with another underneath.  Only one Ace had shown before that hand and it was right at the end of the shoe!.I prefer single or double deck.  6-deck has much longer negative counts and unless you can Wong in and out to avoid negative counts, you will be at a disadvantage.  Losing so many of those minimum bet hands can really eat into your bankroll.  Then, when the high counts come around, you are still going to lose the same ratio of hands, but you will get more blackjacks an double down opportunities with the bit bets out there.With Single and Double deck, the runs don't last as long...especially the negative count runs, before they reshuffle.  On top of that, the EV on the game gives double-deck a .20% player advantage over 6-deck and single is .20% or so better than double deck.  Mathematically, the fewer the number of decks, the better.

[MikeA]

We decided not to play at AmeriStar this morning.  Instead, we checked out and stopped at Isle of Capri on the way home.  That's where I stumbled onto that DB with the 1000 Aces and 400 St FLs.  I didn't do nearly as well this morning.  A couple of 250 quads but down something like 600 coins after 2 hours of play.  But, when I got home, I build an analysis of the game for Strategy.  I found that I'd played three hands wrong.With Ace and two off-suited faces (all three different suits), I held the Faces.  Supposed to hold all three.  .110 coin error.With Ace of one suit and a Queen or Jack and a Ten of a different suit, you hold the suited Face/Ten.  Again, I held just the Ace.  .018 coin error.With Ace and off suited Face (not Ten) you hold them both.  I was just holding the Ace.  .03 coin error.Not bad I guess for guessing at the correct strategy.  I just wasn't factoring in the value of that 25 coin straight!

[shadowman]

These are pretty standard DB plays. For standard DB the 3 HCs are held with a nine penalty otherwise you only hold KQ or KJ. You always hold just QJ.
 
I suspect you may have been right holding just the ace sometimes. This hold is very penalty card dependent.
 
You hold both QT and JT as you noted as well. However, I would probably have guessed the extra value of the aces might have changed this. I would probably have guessed wrong as well.
 
Like many holds in DB the cost is minimal.

[MikeA]

DB is not the game I've been playing.  Mostly, it's been DDB.  Lot of work to do on the strategy!  But DB is next on my list.

[pokeherguy]

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