Why video poker can be so expensive

[olds442jetaway]

It all comes down to simple math. If somebody like myself plays an average 15,000 hands a week, plays nearly perfect strategy on 9/6 job, averages $2.00 a hand bet, and hardly ever gets a Royal, you will lose nearly $ 47,000 dollars for the year. These are round numbers and given the fact that you will lose about 2.5% for not hitting the Royal, and another .5% that you would lose anyway based on the paytables. Sounds about right to me. One casino source estimates the average level 3 player at Mohegan Sun loses 50k a year to maintain that status. WOW!!!..............Now I know why so many want to open casinos. Imagine what an average slot player will lose for the year assuming an equal number of spins to my hands and playing 2 bucks a spin. According to the posted public record player return percentages for CT, of about 91.5%, the slot player will lose 15,000x2x50weeksx8.5% equals a whopping $ 127,500.00 for the year. I allowed 2 weeks for some other form of entertainment.

[BillyJoe]

That is why you need to maximize your casino comps. All the airfare, rooms, limos, food, spas, golf, shows, cruises, gifts and FreePlay that you can get.

As you know, I take a lot of gaming trips. I do not play VP exclusively, mixing in some $5 slots and table games on every trip. I have never really sat back and quantified the value of everything that I receive from casinos in a year. Might be an interesting exercise.

[olds442jetaway]

Yeah, especially the free golf. Hopefully, they throw in the cart too. Just curious. Do they pick up the bar tab too at the clubhouse?

[BobDancer]

Billy Joe is correct insofar there's a lot of value in lots of places in a casino.But let's go back to your original assumption. Playing that much SHOULD yield you 18 royal flushes on average over the course of a year. And you're assuming ZERO? No wonder you calculate you're losing so much!Going the next 18 cycles without a royal is off-the-charts improbable (1 in 65 million, give or take.) Assuming that 1-in-65 million chance is definitely going to happen to you is unreasonably negative. If you worrying about so many extremely unlikely things happening to you, you probably shouldn't even leave your house. Getting killed in a traffic accident on the way to the casino is more probable that that! Not to mention hundreds of different diseases are more likely than that as well.Bob

[olds442jetaway]

If you read my recent posts Bob in Royalless streak continues, you will see why I made those calculations and have actually achieved those results over the past year. Since last September, only 1 Royal in now over 600k hands. That 47k loss number is for real. In the same post I see that SPX chrome is not too far behind me. I do see others hitting Royals around me so I know it is not just the casino. There is not much I can do at this point except to tough it out or stop playing altogether since I know the slots in the long run will fare worse than vp. Comps have made up some of the loss, but not nearly all. I guess if someone can hit powerball lotto with those odds, then I can go on and on not hitting Royals as well. Anyway, I never said I worry about so many extremely unlikely negative events happening to me. I was only citing facts as they pertain to me on vp and the math involved in what if scenarios. In fact I enjoy driving my 16 year old Saturn up there and don't worry too much about it. With 290k miles on it, it owes me nothing and has given two lifetimes already with 40 mpg on the highway. This is on the original engine, trans, and clutch. The odds of that are probably close to my Royalless streaks.

[rascal]

Figuring actual losses is not always simple. Players seem to have different ways of calculating it. Using a single gambling bank account and monitoring it carefully works best for me. Like any "investment", it is your earnings over the course of an entire year that counts, not a single session. I once had a guy tell me that he lost $2,000 at the casino. In fact, he walked in with $200, right away hit AWAK on DDB $1, blew it, and eventually walked out with $200, and yet still thought he lost $2,000.

[BillyJoe]

Yeah, especially the free golf. Hopefully, they throw in the cart too. Just curious. Do they pick up the bar tab too at the clubhouse?
Not that I am better than anyone else, but I do play enough within the two major casino groups, MGM and CET, that I do not have to pay for any food or beverage. For golf, they also take care of limos to/from the courses. At a golf course, assuming it is associated with one of those two groups (like Shadow Creek for MGM and Cascata for CET in Vegas), any food and beverage is charged back to the hotel room, where it is comped. Tips for caddies and food/bar servers, of course, is my responsibility.

[olds442jetaway]

Good deal Billy. I just did a rough calculation on my comp values at retail. Believe it or not, between the 100 free rooms a year, the free play, drinks, food, and gifts, and other odds and ends, the end result is very close to my 47k loss for a 12 month period. Hey, I haven't even factored in the golf that I am wasting by not going to the country club. If things settle down a little with my folks medical situations, I/we should take advantage ot the golf in Ct. I think you already checked out the course on line that Mohegan has. The ride to the course is another 1/2 hour north from the casino. I know I can't use my old golf spike shoes anymore. I have to check out the latest shoes that are allowed on the course. I have to double check dress code as well. I think it is a little strict, but not too bad. Being a jeans/denim guy myself, I would have to adjust that a little I'm sure. For now for me it is just something to keep in mind for the hopefully not too distant future.

[BillyJoe]

Good deal Billy. I just did a rough calculation on my comp values at retail. Believe it or not, between the 100 free rooms a year, the free play, drinks, food, and gifts, and other odds and ends, the end result is very close to my 47k loss for a 12 month period. Hey, I haven't even factored in the golf that I am wasting by not going to the country club. If things settle down a little with my folks medical situations, I/we should take advantage ot the golf in Ct. I think you already checked out the course on line that Mohegan has. The ride to the course is another 1/2 hour north from the casino. I know I can't use my old golf spike shoes anymore. I have to check out the latest shoes that are allowed on the course. I have to double check dress code as well. I think it is a little strict, but not too bad. Being a jeans/denim guy myself, I would have to adjust that a little I'm sure. For now for me it is just something to keep in mind for the hopefully not too distant future.
Olds, I hope your family health situations improve.

Thank you for the offer. I would love to see the casino and golf course up there. It would be a great trip

[BobDancer]

Keep in mind that 1 royal in 600K hands is actually 2 royals in 600,001 hands. People always start their count so it makes their situation, either good or bad, seem extra extreme. Sometimes when you press people they'll say something like, "I haven't had many royals beginning in September, but I did have 4 royals in August."And even with that kind of bad streak over the past 8 months or so, your expectation for the next 600,000 hands is about 15 royals. If your whole point was that during royal-less streaks you lose, then yes, I agree. If your point was that since you haven't hit many royals recently that serves as a good predictor of what's going to happen over the next 8 months, I think you are very much mistaken.Bob