More Luck vs. Strategy

[FloridaPhil]

One of my pet peeves is the idea that you are guaranteed to win at video poker if you follow a specific strategy.  This is totally bogus and leads many people down the road to huge losses and all kinds of other problems.  Playing the right games, using mathematically calculated strategy and practicing frequently all help keep you in the game longer which equates to more chances at a jackpot.  Unfortunately, if you are not sitting at the machine when jackpots happen you will not win.  Computer programs have been written simulating millions of hands of play and they show there is a decent chance you will not get the posted return.  Add human errors and bad choices into the mix and you have the dangerous phenomenon of  players continuing to pump money into the machine believing that the numbers will eventually turn their fortunes around.  No strategy can force jackpots to happen any more often than they do or guarantee you will be there when they do. 

[alpax]

I think computer programs have been used by actuaries and gaming consultants to simulate every table game or slot offered by the casino to ensure negative expectation over the long run, otherwise the game will not exist on the casino floor.

I read somewhere on this forum that it will take 250,000 video poker hands at the same bet for the game return to match the long term theoretical return of the game.

All the practicing with computer software, playing as fast as possible without losing accuracy, and playing the game with the best paytable does keep you in the game longer than a typical recreational player (vast majority, over 95% I personally watch play do not play correct optimal strategy, play quarters 1-3 credits at a worse paytable offered for the same game). What puts people at another level (long term winner) is playing during a good casino promotion or playing at a place with good casino club benefits (such as .30% cash back at SouthPoint).

The biggest kicker the casino offers is the free hotel rooms that they will charge $100 (or $250 during a weekend) to a normal visitor. The casino will gamble in hopes to create a trap and will get people to play more than they intended to. I fell for it quite a few times

[Vman96]

I read somewhere on this forum that it will take 250,000 video poker hands at the same bet for the game return to match the long term theoretical return of the game.


A lot of this depends on the game variant you play and your your definition of "match". Going 250k hands without a royal is 1 in 518 on a game where a royal would occur once in every 40k hands. If that happens, there is a decent change you'll be running a full 2% below expectation.

To match expectation to a tight tolerance (within 1% of theoretical) takes many more hands.

[alpax]

I think it might have been 2.5 million, but I am definitely off by at least a factor of more than 10 times. olds and shadowman have shared royal droughts of 500k hands so 250k is a very low estimate.

This topic also brings up what Dancer wrote for last week's column, the preparation needed to succeed in the long run.

http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2015/0113.cfm


[QUOTE]If you want to think of video poker as just a game that you play just for fun, go right ahead. You're in good company with millions of others. It's okay to think of the game as a (somewhat expensive) hobby. If you have money to spend and that's how you want to spend it, be my guest.
I choose to think of video poker as a tough challenge for which I need to mightily prepare (in the offseason, as it were). This preparation has paid off. To others it sometimes looks like I am very lucky. To me, it feels like I have planned my work and then worked my plan.[/QUOTE]

With today being Martin Luther King Jr. holiday, Dancer is probably at the SouthPoint playing Quick Quads as an example.

[FloridaPhil]

My point is "There is no guarantee anyone will win long term playing video poker.  No disrespect to Bob Dancer, but the fact that he has had good results in the past does not assure he or any player can do as well in the future.  Of course there is no guarantee anyone will live beyond the next 10 minutes anyway...   

[OTABILL]

Luck triumphs strategy and paytables regarding VP. That's been our experience the past 10 years.

[WVRadar]

One of my pet peeves is the idea that you are guaranteed to win at video poker if you follow a specific strategy.  This is totally bogus and leads many people down the road to huge losses and all kinds of other problems.  Playing the right games, using mathematically calculated strategy and practicing frequently all help keep you in the game longer which equates to more chances at a jackpot.  Unfortunately, if you are not sitting at the machine when jackpots happen you will not win.  Computer programs have been written simulating millions of hands of play and they show there is a decent chance you will not get the posted return.  Add human errors and bad choices into the mix and you have the dangerous phenomenon of  players continuing to pump money into the machine believing that the numbers will eventually turn their fortunes around.  No strategy can force jackpots to happen any more often than they do or guarantee you will be there when they do. 







When I first started playing Video Poker I purchased software to help train me to play the game better. The software was "Frugal Video Poker". The best advice on the game I have ever heard: even if you learn the correct strategy, you will come out of the casino a loser two out of three times you play.

The point she made was that the comps you received from the casino could make up for your losses, and that your bankroll would last a lot longer on Video Poker versus playing Slots.

While the latter is still certainly true, I'm not sure that the former still holds. Since I purchased that software casinos have come up with several methods of limiting comps to Video Poker players. The most obnoxious of these is the fact that most casinos I play in make me put twice as much money in the machine as a slots player to receive the same amout of players club points.

That being said, I've never played at the level needed to be comped hotel rooms. I do recieve a small amount of free play at most casinos, and usually am offered some kind of discount on meals.

[FloridaPhil]

As recreational players, comps are a way for the casino to sooth our wounds and make us feel better about losing  or coax us back to the casino for another beating.   When I was losing thousands of dollars a weekend, I got all kinds of free rooms, meals, show tickets and plane flights.  Non of these came close to covering my losses, but they were nice.  Now that I play single coin quarters, I'm still on a lot of comp lists so the offers still come for now.  This sounds like I'm negative about video poker... nothing could be further from the truth.  I love playing video poker and my wife and I now take more VP vacations than ever.   We just decided to play the game on our own terms.   Luck is the most important factor in video poker.  Strategy, preparation and playing the best games help by giving you more chances to be "lucky", but in the end nothing will change the way the cards are dealt.

[chattycattty]

So I am sitting there staring at my machine having just been dealt 4 to a royal and at the same time a regular flush. After briefly scratching my head I toss the 5 of hearts and the remaining magical card shows up that completes my royal flush. This has happened for me and I am sure for everyone else on many occasions.

The point is you need to master the technique to know to go for the royal. But luck is the most important factor because I only had a 1 in 47 chance to get the right card. I rest my case.

[onemoretry]

The point is you need to master the technique to know to go for the royal. But luck is the most important factor because I only had a 1 in 47 chance to get the right card. I rest my case.
If you didn't know enough to go for the royal, your chance of hitting the royal dropped from 1 in 47 to zero.