Someone please explain

[ko king]

[QUOTE=ko king] I wasn't sure about the amount of hands I had played both times so I had to estimate based on the average amount of hands I usually play in an hour. On one occasion I had played just under 4 hours and averaged 11 per hour. On that day I received 44 dealt 4 to the flush off the deal, I converted 1 out of every 8 to the flush.
You have indicated you play reasonably fast. Assuming that equates to, say 800 hands per hour, you played 3200 hands in the four hours. Forty-four dealt four flushes represents a frequency of about 1 per 73.

To me, that is not an excessive number of dealt four flushes. In fact, it seems a bit on the low side.

Why do you think otherwise? [/QUOTE]

My bad that should have read, 44 per hour, sometimes my typing gets ahead of my thinking.

[DaBurglar]

I find it interesting how all the turds who criticize ME when I MAKE similarly THEMED posts/threads as this thread have all managed NOT to chime in on this particular thread.....just goes to show that they are more at odds with ME personally than any specific idea or theory or concept about VP and RNG's and "fairness"  etc etc etc.Nice post Ko king, very interesting.

[onemoretry]

Best I can remember on average a player should see 4 to the flush off the deal 1 out of every 36 hands and convert to the flush around 1 every 5.
How do you calculate the 1 in 36? I've tried to work it out for myself and can't get anywhere near that number.

The 1 in 5 conversion rate, on the other hand, is pretty easy to determine (to be precise, it is actually 1 in 5.22).

[alpax]

[QUOTE=ko king] Best I can remember on average a player should see 4 to the flush off the deal 1 out of every 36 hands and convert to the flush around 1 every 5.
How do you calculate the 1 in 36? I've tried to work it out for myself and can't get anywhere near that number.

The 1 in 5 conversion rate, on the other hand, is pretty easy to determine (to be precise, it is actually 1 in 5.22). [/QUOTE]

There are 3 components to calculating 4 to a flush.

1. Choose one out of 4 suits (4 nCr 1) = 4 different ways
2. Choose four out of the 13 different ranks (13 nCr 4) = 715 different ways
3. Choose 1 card out of the remaining 39 cards that is not from the same suit (39 nCr 1) = 39

4. There are 2598960 ways to deal 5 cards from the 52 card deck (52 nCr 5)

so

2598960 / (4 * 39 * 715) = 23.3

1 out of 23.3 hands you get 4 to a flush on the deal.

[onemoretry]

There are 3 components to calculating 4 to a flush.

1. Choose one out of 4 suits (4 nCr 1) = 4 different ways
2. Choose four out of the 13 different ranks (13 nCr 4) = 715 different ways
3. Choose 1 card out of the remaining 39 cards that is not from the same suit (39 nCr 1) = 39

4. There are 2598960 ways to deal 5 cards from the 52 card deck (52 nCr 5)

so

2598960 / (4 * 39 * 715) = 23.3

1 out of 23.3 hands you get 4 to a flush on the deal.
Thanks for the detailed explanation.

That's pretty much the way I did it, but since the answer is somewhat different than the 1 in 36 cited in the earlier post, I thought I might have done something wrong.

My calculation did indicate a bit less of a frequency than 1 in 23.3, since I deducted the 40 combinations that were four to the royal or four to a straight flush.

[ko king]

[QUOTE=ko king] Best I can remember on average a player should see 4 to the flush off the deal 1 out of every 36 hands and convert to the flush around 1 every 5.
How do you calculate the 1 in 36? I've tried to work it out for myself and can't get anywhere near that number.

The 1 in 5 conversion rate, on the other hand, is pretty easy to determine (to be precise, it is actually 1 in 5.22). [/QUOTE]


It was a number someone on this site provided me with a few years back. Either way my point was the difference is visible when you play there. Most players will tell you that they hit more royals and straight flushes there, I just took the time to try and figure out why that's the case. If you're supposed to see that hand every 23 times on average and you're actually getting it every 18 it makes sense that it would increase the chances of hitting a royal or straight flush. It's not something I've done a detailed study on but it's also not hard to pick up on. I never paid any attention to the hand until I started playing there, I never complained either because I've hit more royal and straight flushes there in a few short years than I did in 20 years playing elsewhere.

[ko king]

I find it interesting how all the turds who criticize ME when I MAKE similarly THEMED posts/threads as this thread have all managed NOT to chime in on this particular thread.....just goes to show that they are more at odds with ME personally than any specific idea or theory or concept about VP and RNG's and "fairness"  etc etc etc.Nice post Ko king, very interesting.



I catch my share of flack when I say something negative or something that threatens someone else's belief. I live right on the border of three different states all of which have casinos. We now have a total of 13 casinos in these parts, 11 of them are the same basic driving distance for me, the other 2 take about 30 minutes extra. At one time there was more casinos but some closed the doors, funny thing is they were my favorite casinos. The biggest casino in these parts closed down over a year ago, my best guess is all but 4 of the 13 left are struggling to keep the doors open. I've played at each and every one of the casinos, there's three casinos that I won't even consider playing at anymore. I'm almost up to four because I've played over 40K of $1 denomination TDB at max play there without a hand pay, I've hit so many standard quads there I lost count but the premium hands won't show up. One of the bartenders there told me I was the only one brave enough to play $1 denomination there, most just slow play nickels for free drinks, it's a very small market casino. One of the casinos I quit playing at had fantastic vp, plenty of machines and lots of players, I like many others loved the place. They pulled out all of the vp machines and replaced them, the pay tables stayed the same but those machines were tight, cost of playing them went up considerably. The place is like a ghost town now, they ran the players off. I think it's more nuts to believe that all vp is the same than to think otherwise.

[FAA]

I'm almost up to four because I've played over 40K of $1 denomination
TDB at max play there without a hand pay, I've hit so many standard
quads there I lost count but the premium hands won't show up. One of the
bartenders there told me I was the only one brave enough to play $1
denomination there, most just slow play nickels for free drinks.--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------That is tremendous bravery. You do know the "definition of insanity" maxim?

[onemoretry]

It was a number someone on this site provided me with a few years back.
Unfortunately, like a lot of things written on this site, it was inaccurate.

[onemoretry]

If you're supposed to see that hand every 23 times on average and you're actually getting it every 18 it makes sense that it would increase the chances of hitting a royal or straight flush.
I've read this sentence over and over, but can make no sense of it.

How can being dealt more four flushes than the predicted statistical average "increase the chances of hitting a royal or straight flush"? If anything, shouldn't it decrease the chances, since you do not draw for royals or straight flushes with those hands?