Odds

[binoy]

Does anybody know what are the odds of being dealt a royal flush on triple play TDB? Just wondering!

[onemoretry]

Does anybody know what are the odds of being dealt a royal flush on triple play TDB? Just wondering!
The likelihood of a dealt royal flush is slightly better than i in 650000. It doesn't matter how many lines you are playing.

[olds442jetaway]

     One would think playing an average of 1 million hands of vp a year or more that I would get an average of at least 1 a year. My last one was in 2001 when I had 2 that year on a Double Down Stud game. I forget what the odds of getting one are on the redraw after tossing all of the useless cards on the dealt hand. Must be same as above I guess since you are still drawing from a 52 card deck. I did get 2 of those since 2001....edited to fix a mistake in the above. On the redraw, you are drawing from a 47 card deck, not 52. If you had tossed a ten from the original hand, the odds of pulling a royal on the redraw are still over one in over 500k. If you tossed all of the cards under ten, the probability of getting the royal on the redraw is less than one in 400k.

[ko king]

      One would think playing an average of 1 million hands of vp a year or more that I would get an average of at least 1 a year. My last one was in 2001 when I had 2 that year on a Double Down Stud game. I forget what the odds of getting one are on the redraw after tossing all of the useless cards on the dealt hand. Must be same as above I guess since you are still drawing from a 52 card deck. I did get 2 of those since 2001....edited to fix a mistake in the above. On the redraw, you are drawing from a 47 card deck, not 52. If you had tossed a ten from the original hand, the odds of pulling a royal on the redraw are still over one in over 500k. If you tossed all of the cards under ten, the probability of getting the royal on the redraw is less than one in 400k.

Olds, surely you had to be playing multi-hand vp in order to play a million hands a year. I don't play anywhere near the amount I used to, but for about 17 years running I would play between 200K-250K hands of $2 denomination DDB every year. Probably somewhere around 95% of that play was at one casino, during those 17 years I didn't hit a single dealt royal flush, never even saw anyone else hit one there. From 1996-2005 the casino stood heads and tails above all other casinos, the vp and slots were incredible. I don't recall how many royals I hit during that stretch but it was a lot, none dealt though. I got to know this couple pretty well and I remember having a conversation in the lounge one night about how many royals they hit per year, I didn't believe them when they said around 50 per year. The next time I ran into them at the casino they provided me proof that they did hit 52 the previous year, not hard to do on DDB. In 2005 the casino sold out and the new owners replaced all the vp machines. The royal flushes just disappeared. From 2005-2011 I only hit 1 royal flush, but I killed everything else, quad aces all the time. The couple I mentioned quit playing there because from 2005-2007 they had only hit 2 between them. Like I said, I lived without the royal flush just as everyone else there did, we all crushed the other hands. In 2011 after a brief shut down the casino opened back up and the vp play went to crap, the play was pathetic. By 2013 almost no one would play vp there anymore, the casino closed down in 2014. Now comes the kicker, I've mentioned this casino before because of the amount of royal flushes I've not only hit but seen others hit. In 5 years of play I've had 5 dealt royals and can't remember how many I've seen other players hit. All vp is not created equal.

[olds442jetaway]

Believe it or not, mostly single line play. An average of 3 trips a week. Average session about 8 hours. Pace is about 600 hands per hour, but that would be higher sometimes or on games like Double Down Stud. Anyway....600x8==4800 hands per session. x 3 = 14,400 hands per week. x 50 weeks ( 2 weeks off for other stuff )= 720,000 hands per year. The rest would be multi line play. Sometimes the real low denomination games. My best guess including those games would be another 300k hands or so which would put me over the million mark for the year. Given the above, one can see why a 95% return is so expensive on an annual basis. Wish I was averaging 99 percent. Most of the play is in the overnight hours or really early in the morning so I pretty much have a pick of the machines. Hasn't seemed to help much though.

[ko king]

Believe it or not, mostly single line play. An average of 3 trips a week. Average session about 8 hours. Pace is about 600 hands per hour, but that would be higher sometimes or on games like Double Down Stud. Anyway....600x8==4800 hands per session. x 3 = 14,400 hands per week. x 50 weeks ( 2 weeks off for other stuff )= 720,000 hands per year. The rest would be multi line play. Sometimes the real low denomination games. My best guess including those games would be another 300k hands or so which would put me over the million mark for the year. Given the above, one can see why a 95% return is so expensive on an annual basis. Wish I was averaging 99 percent. Most of the play is in the overnight hours or really early in the morning so I pretty much have a pick of the machines. Hasn't seemed to help much though.

Every once in a while I would play for an entire day but that was rare because of work. I've had a small business for years that kept me busy so I had to make time to play. I'm playing less now because the vp has gotten so pathetic. I can find the same pay tables I always played but the results turned bad in 2011 and have stayed that way.

[olds442jetaway]

For me, it was August 2011 to be exact. I remember playing in the middle of the night. The place was dead. I did see some techs roaming around. I took a 5 minute break and when I came back to my machine there was a very small sign pasted on it and many others in the area that offered 99% games. It simply said, something to the effect that this machine does not pay points. They have since changed the small sign to momentum dollars, but it amounts to the same thing. Ever since then, my 99% returns have gone from just that to 94-96 percent depending on the year. This was the first year I was W-2Gless until a couple of weeks ago when I caught 2 Royals just 2 days apart. Both were small and just over the threshold for cutting the W-2G. I have been trying some small denomination games on multi line as a fill in and to taper the losses and my returns on those have been between 96 and 100 percent. I'm not sure what I will be doing for 2016 yet, but it will be something where the casino doesn't rake in anywhere near the dollars of the past several years from me. I know the comps and rooms will dry up, but so be it....edited to add...I can't expect my old faithful Saturn to keep going forever. At 318k miles, it owed me nothing some years ago. Actually, a vp hiatus for just one year could buy myself and the Mrs. each a really nice new car. Hmmmmmm.... That is a true statement by the way, but I would never deny the Mrs. a new car anyway if she wanted one no matter what I was doing with vp. Wish I still had my 73 F100 that I bought new for $ 2,750. What a great little truck. Unfortunately, the salt on the roads up here ate it away over time. V-8, stick, traction lock, maroon, duals, wow. Wish I could buy it new again as well as the Saturn. A bit of a diversion here, but that is just the age creeping in momentarily.....

[FloridaPhil]

I play VP for peanuts now and bought my wife a $40,000 kitchen instead.  Believe me, I got my money's worth.

[ko king]

For me, it was August 2011 to be exact. I remember playing in the middle of the night. The place was dead. I did see some techs roaming around. I took a 5 minute break and when I came back to my machine there was a very small sign pasted on it and many others in the area that offered 99% games. It simply said, something to the effect that this machine does not pay points. They have since changed the small sign to momentum dollars, but it amounts to the same thing. Ever since then, my 99% returns have gone from just that to 94-96 percent depending on the year. This was the first year I was W-2Gless until a couple of weeks ago when I caught 2 Royals just 2 days apart. Both were small and just over the threshold for cutting the W-2G. I have been trying some small denomination games on multi line as a fill in and to taper the losses and my returns on those have been between 96 and 100 percent. I'm not sure what I will be doing for 2016 yet, but it will be something where the casino doesn't rake in anywhere near the dollars of the past several years from me. I know the comps and rooms will dry up, but so be it....edited to add...I can't expect my old faithful Saturn to keep going forever. At 318k miles, it owed me nothing some years ago. Actually, a vp hiatus for just one year could buy myself and the Mrs. each a really nice new car. Hmmmmmm.... That is a true statement by the way, but I would never deny the Mrs. a new car anyway if she wanted one no matter what I was doing with vp. Wish I still had my 73 F100 that I bought new for $ 2,750. What a great little truck. Unfortunately, the salt on the roads up here ate it away over time. V-8, stick, traction lock, maroon, duals, wow. Wish I could buy it new again as well as the Saturn. A bit of a diversion here, but that is just the age creeping in momentarily.....

I know some folks on this site would laugh at the thought of the vp being any different, and would get a bigger kick out of us pointing to a specific time. I said 2011 was when my vp results went bad and that's a true statement. Most people in this area who played a lot of vp will point to May of 2011 when everything here changed. Why may of 2011, that's when the casinos opened back up after being shut down for a couple of weeks. Before that time the casinos had already laid off over 3K employees, cut back on comps and the slots had gone to the crapper. All the casinos had experienced big drops in revenue and the layoffs, comp cutbacks and crappy slots just made things worse. I got to the point that I wouldn't touch a slot machine and stuck to the tried and true vp machines. The vp was still good and the machines stayed crowded with players. It didn't take long after the casinos opened back up for the grumbling to start, none of us were hitting the premium hands like we had always done. Frequent vp players were starting to talk to each other and the message was pretty clear, something was different. Every time I went to the casino there were fewer people playing vp, it got to the point that I would often walk in and I would be the only one playing. How they pulled off the changes to vp machines is unclear to me, but I do know why they would. I think the need and the greed got the best of the entire gaming industry in this area and they made some poor short term decisions. My guess would be that they had intended for any possible changes to be temporary in an effort to recoup lost revenue. Where they missed the boat was counting on those 20K daily players to remain loyal to them even though they had stabbed them in the back. One casino reaped the benefits and sucked up so many of their players and it remains that way to this day. That one casino is growing by leaps and bounds while almost all the other casinos look to be at deaths door. Players can't stand repeated returns of 95% on games that advertise 99.58% and 98.98% payback, so most either quit playing or headed to the casino where the payback percentages still mean something. The only reason I still even try to play at any of those casinos is because so many people on this site say there is no way they could change the games and I hang on to the possibility they could be right. Now as for losses I had my years, 2011-2014 where I could have bought at least one new car but I've cut back in 2015 as I've almost given up on their games. 2016 will see me giving these casinos even less money. I've went from being Seven Star to being almost a nobody and I'm fine with that. On a side note I did by a new car, a Dodge Challenger, a 485 horsepower beast that gets 25 mpg's if I stay off the pedal.

[olds442jetaway]

Super car KO. At least Dodge remained true to the styling of the original, where chevy missed the boat on the camaro imo. Wish I still had my 68 Charger 440 RT. I would love to run it side by side with yours for a 1/4 mile or so, but I think I would lose. My friend had a 66 Hemi Satellite 426 and I think that would be a little closer. Wish the casinos had a vp game with a muscle car bonus round. That might keep me there even with a 95% return.

     edited to add.....just looked it up KO. Your car with the scat pack beats both. Pretty close with the Hemi Satellite though. Wow...best of luck with the car.